NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[SnowGoose69]

If the convective elements for this storm really get going as it bombs, can you see an area of 18-20 over western and central long island and the jersey shore? The track for this thing seems to be wobbling, but not trending.

Yes, I went with 17 for FRG and 19 for ISP in my forecast....that didn't really account for banding either...so amounts over 20 are possible where banding or TSSN occurs for extended periods.

[Voyager]

Here on the western edge of the heavy snow area, I'm glad the SPC thinks it'll come west. Every little 10-mile shift makes a big difference west of the Delaware.

Indeed it does. The RUC and SREF have both been more west than the other models. Will they be right?

[OSU2]

FYI:

No changes for PHL

7-13 Inches:

Rolling with the SREF Mean.

I will say at this stage (Inside Of 12-24 Hours) it is VERY RARE the SREF and WRF are not in agreement. Very rare.

Interesting test.

ERIC

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, I went with 17 for FRG and 19 for ISP in my forecast....that didn't really account for banding either...so amounts over 20 are possible where banding or TSSN occurs for extended periods.

I was roaming around the NWS point and click stuff and they had some really high wind speeds forecasted-- like eastern LI 50 mph sustained gusts to 65 mph! Think that can happen?

They had Western LI and the Jersey Shore for 40 mph sustained gusts to 55 mph

They also had a second precip max for snowfall on the Jersey Shore around Toms River - Barnegat (Ocean County) where the range was 12-20 inches. For this area they had me under 10-16.

[A-L-E-X]

FYI:

No changes for PHL

7-13 Inches:

Rolling with the SREF Mean.

I will say at this stage (Inside Of 12-24 Hours) it is VERY RARE the SREF and WRF are not in agreement. Very rare.

Interesting test.

ERIC

Thanks, Eric... what does the WRF have?

[SnowGoose69]

Base Reflectivity which is typically the most reliable on the Mt. Holly radar shows snow into Cape May county, Wildwood is at 8SM in light blue so it seems logical thats where it is...movement shows if it continued on the same trend it has been the last 40 minutes it would reach the south shore of LI around 9-930am...we'll see....the trend the last season or so has been later than expected...most forecasts had 16Z initially, that might still hold.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, I went with 17 for FRG and 19 for ISP in my forecast....that didn't really account for banding either...so amounts over 20 are possible where banding or TSSN occurs for extended periods.

BTW they had Westhampton Beach out to Montauk Point as mixed precip or rain for awhile today before changing to snow late this afternoon (probably when the heavy stuff moves in) and reduced accumulations there to 8-12.

Do you think thats about right and accumulations will drop once you get east of Islip, SG?

[phlwx]

overall the trends have not been to positive in my view on the 0z and 6 z model runs of the GFS and NAM minus the short range models some posters really like. euro run looked okay from what I read, but not really good for anyone west of phl.

QPF numbers have been dropping each run from NYC/Long Island on west

clearly the gfs and nam show warning level snowfall should be met in the PHL burbs of Chester county, montgomery county and bucks county and possbily Lehigh County in PA

I am currently sitting Doylestown, PA and this area has gone from a big event yesterday to around 6-8 inches on the NAM/GFS recent runs.

Where I live in NJ in Edison, same pattern of lowering QPF holds true looking at recent trends. most models show around 12 inches in edison, a big ticket event.

hopefully some of the short range models are correct for people on the western edge. i just don't like the recent model runs for my area and west.

Considering 60 hours ago "out to sea" was the most likely scenario you should take your 6-8" like a man and enjoy it.

[OSU2]

Thanks, Eric... what does the WRF have?

Meant to say the NAM:

ERIC

[joey]

Base Reflectivity which is typically the most reliable on the Mt. Holly radar shows snow into Cape May county, Wildwood is at 8SM in light blue so it seems logical thats where it is...movement shows if it continued on the same trend it has been the last 40 minutes it would reach the south shore of LI around 9-930am...we'll see....the trend the last season or so has been later than expected...most forecasts had 16Z initially, that might still hold.

Yep, LI may get into the action in the next few hours. Precip seems to be filling in due north right now.

[hudsonvalley21]

Congrats guys....Big banding near NYC possible.

There might be the mixing issues with the favor of the western side of the track over eastern portios of LI and sne. The snow and rain mix could cause havoc with trees and power lines with poss snowpaste and high winds.

[phlwx]

FYI:

No changes for PHL

7-13 Inches:

Rolling with the SREF Mean.

I will say at this stage (Inside Of 12-24 Hours) it is VERY RARE the SREF and WRF are not in agreement. Very rare.

Interesting test.

ERIC

At least the NAM would get you to 7.3 if the 0z qpf is right at 10:1. Your call is reasonable and very wise.

[Rainshadow]

Base Reflectivity which is typically the most reliable on the Mt. Holly radar shows snow into Cape May county, Wildwood is at 8SM in light blue so it seems logical thats where it is...movement shows if it continued on the same trend it has been the last 40 minutes it would reach the south shore of LI around 9-930am...we'll see....the trend the last season or so has been later than expected...most forecasts had 16Z initially, that might still hold.

Has anything changed in the modeling since the 12z run on Thursday?

[A-L-E-X]

<br>Base Reflectivity which is typically the most reliable on the Mt. Holly  radar shows snow into Cape May county, Wildwood is at 8SM in light blue  so it seems logical thats where it is...movement shows if it continued  on the same trend it has been the last 40 minutes it would reach the  south shore of LI around 9-930am...we'll see....the trend the last season or so has been later than expected...most forecasts had 16Z initially, that might still hold.<br>

Thanks, is that headed due north? If so, Im about 80 miles due north of ACY (actually NNE, but much more north than east lol).... if it got here by 9, that would be a bit early-- most forecasts had it getting going here in the afternoon. I wonder if this storm is still progged to stall just east of south Jersey..... on the models it looked like it takes 12 hours to get from ACY to MTP, while strengthening to under 970 mb!

[SnowGoose69]

BTW they had Westhampton Beach out to Montauk Point as mixed precip or rain for awhile today before changing to snow late this afternoon (probably when the heavy stuff moves in) and reduced accumulations there to 8-12.

Do you think thats about right and accumulations will drop once you get east of Islip, SG?

Honestly, I would see it going snow to mix then back to snow as opposed to starting as a mix or rain. I had around 12 inches forecast out there but if the RUC is correct that may be too high.

[bluewave]

The SPC just put out a mesoscale discussion for our region.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2136.html

[TomWH]

WV and IR Sat look amazing . If there was ever a chance for a weather weenies dream to come true, this is it. I know I am pumped and that doesn't happen too often any more.

Ohh yes to complete the WWD can we please have this stall just south and east of LI after all it is Christmas still right. Thanks

Enjoy

[LVblizzard]

The RUC shows the dryslot reaching SE PA late tonight.

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks for all the info-- trying to pinpoint the area of max snowfall on Long Island-- by what youre saying, sounds like it should be somewhere between Islip and Upton/Brookhaven/OKX. Upton always has the highest snowfall totals so no surprise there lol.

[ParanormalWx]

Has anything changed in the modeling since the 12z run on Thursday?

Nah.....time to get the golf clubs out.

[A-L-E-X]

The SPC just put out a mesoscale discussion for our region.

http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md2136.html

Lol did you notice BW, that we're right inside the eastern edge of that blue ellipse

[jasonli18t]

Thanks for all the info-- trying to pinpoint the area of max snowfall on Long Island-- by what youre saying, sounds like it should be somewhere between Islip and Upton/Brookhaven/OKX. Upton always has the highest snowfall totals so no surprise there lol.

im thinking the max snowfall on LI could be more towards you. Im not so worried about mixing where I am, but I think the banding could favor your area.

[Voyager]

I was roaming around the NWS point and click stuff and they had some really high wind speeds forecasted-- like eastern LI 50 mph sustained gusts to 65 mph! Think that can happen?

They had Western LI and the Jersey Shore for 40 mph sustained gusts to 55 mph

For what it's worth, Alex, CTP has gusts to 37 mph all the way back here.

[A-L-E-X]

im thinking the max snowfall on LI could be more towards you. Im not so worried about mixing where I am, but I think the banding could favor your area.

You'd like that too since youre headed to Long Beach lol.

The gf is going to wonder wtf he picked snow over me? My ex and I used to fight over that ALL the time because I would get out of bed in the middle of the night to see if it was snowing.

Snow jealousy.....

[A-L-E-X]

For what it's worth, Alex, CTP has gusts to 37 mph all the way back here.

And hopefully you'll get that 8-12 inches of snow-- I told my sister to expect about a foot of snow in Jim Thorpe.

[jasonli18t]

You'd like that too since youre headed to Long Beach lol.

The gf is going to wonder wtf he picked snow over me? My ex and I used to fight over that ALL the time because I would get out of bed in the middle of the night to see if it was snowing.

Snow jealousy.....

I'm actually gonna be staying put for this here in commack. But I have had many a similar fight

[Voyager]

And hopefully you'll get that 8-12 inches of snow-- I told my sister to expect about a foot of snow in Jim Thorpe.

Thanks. I hope so too.

[Rainshadow]

Nah.....time to get the golf clubs out.

It sure was a modeling circuitous route to say the least.

[hudsonvalley21]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

631 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...

VERY LIGHT SNOW NEAR KGON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AT 11Z WITH BAND OF

PCPN BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DELMARVA AND STRETCHING

NEWD. WATER VAPOR INDICATES THIS IS THE WAA ZONE. TD/S STILL IN

THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA. WITH MAIN LIFT S OF THE

CWA AND MOISTURE LIMITED OVER THE CWA...WILL KEEP IT MAINLY DRY AT

SUNRISE..WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH NOON.

SIGNS OF THIS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AT KMTP WITH CLOSING DEWPOINT

DEPRESSIONS AND DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOS.

6Z MODEL UPDATE...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUPPORT A GENERAL 12-16

INCH SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON RIVER EAST. BANDING WILL LIKELY

RESULT IN LOCALIZED 2 FT AMOUNTS. GFS LOW TRACK IS 40-60 MILES

FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SREF AND NAM.

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES...YET.

TWO MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE WIND. SECOND IS

THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS ERN LI.

MODEL STORM TRACK HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH THE 00Z RUNS. THE ECMWF

TRACKS ALONG THE 3Z SREF. GFS ABOUT 20MI NW OF THE ECMWF...AND

THE NAM SLIGHTLY E OF THE ECMWF.

QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL FCST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A

GENERAL 6-18 INCHES LIKELY. LEAST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W AND HIGHEST

AMOUNTS E...WHERE RAIN DOESNT HOLD THE NUMBERS DOWN.

WITH REGARD TO THE RAIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW MAY ALLOW

FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PENETRATE WWD INTO ECNTRL LI. THE TWIN

FORKS ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. AS THE LOW MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH

HOWEVER IT UNDERGOES OCCLUSION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT H85

TEMPS NEVER RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA. FOR THIS REASON

HAVE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY SNOW BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY.

ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL LI WWD WILL BE ALL SNOW.

THE DEEP LOW WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND FIELD. BL

WINDS IN THE GFS OVER 60KT. NAM WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER...BUT THE

DEEPER ECMWF GIVES SUPPORT TO THE GFS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-60 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS

MOST OF LI. HAVE KEPT THE WARNINGS INTACT...BUT WILL INCLUDE

WORDING STATING THAT AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IS POSSIBLE.

BECAUSE THE HIGHEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WILL

BE TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL TIME TO OBSERVE WHAT ENSUES OVER THE

OCEAN.

THE STORM WINDS DOWN MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING. THE

ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS IT WILL BE OVER BY 15Z ATTM. DRY WITH

LESS WIND TUE.

&&

[A-L-E-X]

It sure was a modeling circuitous route to say the least.

Its like a good movie, with so many twists and turns, you dont know how it will end. Unlike the movies, these usually end badly for us. Not this time, Tony!