NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[A-L-E-X]

Montauk up to 33 degrees...not sure it means much yet but its something to note...

It May! Feb 1969 saw 15-22" in and around the city proper ranging down to 2-4" at the Twin Forks.

But you would think that modeling has improved in 41 years and no model is showing mostly rain for the Point

Thats interesting-- JFK had over 24" both in Feb 1961 and Feb 1969. Western part of the south shore is a lot better for snowfall than the eastern part in these kinds of storms

[A-L-E-X]

This is the way I see the storm totals breaking down in the high impact areas of the Tri-State:

11am - 7pm 3-5"

7pm - 3am 8-12"

3am- Finish 3-5"

There will probably be a lot of people panicking because the radar will not have the traditional smoothed out look to our SSW as the storm commences. Instead it will be more of a blossoming from the SSE as rapid cyclonegenesis takes place. The models have consistently shown the same general jackpot area over the last several runs so pre storm confidence could not be higher. Of course I'm not talking about the western fringe areas where people will be on pins and needles all day. Nothing scientific, but with the storm tucked in so close to the coast I can easily see some of the earlier runs of the models verifying with the western extent. So, Good Luck Philly and DC areas! It's more fun when everyone gets in on the action anyway. People have been talking here about how all these major storms of the 2000's have not stood out like the Big Ones of past decades. For me, the Lindsay Storm, both the Jan 20th. & Feb 1978 storms along with Feb 1983 and Jan 1996 are the ones that stand out. Among these storms, Feb 1978 had the highest impact and it is not even close. I believe Paul Kocin wrote about this in the preface to the first book. Because of the "Good Bust" that occured on Jan 20th, 1978, the general public had lost confidence in NWS and media Mets and basically ignored 3 days of warnings that preceded this storm. The 7am start time that morning was too late to deter people from setting out to work that day and when it was evident several hours later that we were going to get nailed, many buisnesses decided to shut down after lunch. This coincided with about 90 minutes of Thundersnow and True Whiteout conditions that dropped snow at the rate of 3-5" per hour. I'm not exagerating about this. For those of you that did not live through this storm, it brought this area to a standstill as vehicles were stranded everywhere. This will not happen with this storm because of the timing. The wind speed projections have me concerned though with this storm because of the prospect of losing power. Here on L.I., any wind gusts above 40mph can cause widespread problems with our power lines being above ground. So be safe and enjoy. If everything pans out as progged and the snow can stay dry enough maybe we can witness True Whiteout conditons where you can't see 100 feet. That would make this storm stand out......Vinny

A wonderful recollection! I believe that the Feb 1978 event actually started late by several hours-- and that added to the public thinking the storm wouldnt come. Many of our big ones do start late-- this was also the case with Feb 1983 and PD2. It took 4 hrs for the snow to get from JFK to LGA lol. That was our last truly great storm..... I got 28 inches in it.

[SnowGoose69]

Yesterday's 24 hour tau on the 12Z GFS is going to verify way better than the 24 hour forecast from the 12Z NAM...997 mb vs. 1000mb on the NAM...the low position looks closer to the GFS too, closer to the SC/NC coast....both models appear they were also too fast with it

[A-L-E-X]

Yesterday's 24 hour tau on the 12Z GFS is going to verify way better than the 24 hour forecast from the 12Z NAM...997 mb vs. 1000mb on the NAM...the low position looks closer to the GFS too, closer to the SC/NC coast....both models appear they were also too fast with it

so this thing still has a chance to stall off the jersey coast and be stronger than progged.

[Sunny and Warm]

Yesterday's 24 hour tau on the 12Z GFS is going to verify way better than the 24 hour forecast from the 12Z NAM...997 mb vs. 1000mb on the NAM...the low position looks closer to the GFS too, closer to the SC/NC coast....both models appear they were also too fast with it

Is it reasonable to state if that is true that the storm will likely come closer to the coast and slow further south?

[BL03]

09z RUC has a 980mb low just off S NJ/C NJ coast at 03z monday... with heavy band moving from E to W making it into E PA but also bringing dryslot into coastal areas. Impressive RUC signal for heavy band..

ruc_p01_018m.gif

ruc_700_018m.gif

[Sunny and Warm]

so this thing still has a chance to stall off the jersey coast and be stronger than progged.

great minds think alike. I'm not sure it becomes stronger than progged. It may just get to its full strength sooner, which would be better for many more people south of Philly. Doesn't much matter to you either way, although a track close to the coast will invite the 700mb low to be near you and produce the dreaded dry slot from hell. Somebody is getting it, but who. I think E LI and CT.

[NEXtreme]

Steve D last night was talking about east end of LI standing the best chance of getting a dry slot but even that was a low chance. Everybody else shouldn't worry much about a dry slot.

[Sunny and Warm]

Steve D last night was talking about east end of LI standing the best chance of getting a dry slot but even that was a low chance. Everybody else shouldn't worry much about a dry slot.

Well, if E LI is getting dry slotted, you can bet that parts of CT will as well. Just goes without saying. To me, areas just east of the city stand the best chance of slotting.

[lindywx]

SUNY MM5 has the low going from 988, 100 miles east of AC to 974 about 25 miles east of Montauk in a 12 hour period

[Atlas]

Ill tell you what, radar looks much better for us than I thought it would at this point, really matches up well with the, surprisingly, RUC

[ChescoWx]

Current Wxsim Module has continued to lower snow amounts to the NW of PHL...current forecast is for 5 to 7" here in the beautiful burbs of Philadelphia. However the RUC seems to be a bit more robust indicating about 4" by 4pm whereas the GFS shows only about 1.5" at that point. Should be a great storm to track! Enjoy!!

[Voyager]

RUC accumulated snowfall through 05Z

06z RUC is tucked in way west..damn, this would be awesome.

That's not very generous inland. If I'm reading it right, it's only 1-2 inches for Schuylkill County PA. If the RUC is the farthest west, why the lower snowfall?

[NEXtreme]

The models are trying to figure out where to put the heaviest band of snow, so the bounce around a bit, east, west, east , west etc...it's nowcasting time

[AbsoluteVorticity]

That's not very generous inland. If I'm reading it right, it's only 1-2 inches for Schuylkill County PA. If the RUC is the farthest west, why the lower snowfall?

Precip is not over by that time

[Animal]

overall the trends have not been to positive in my view on the 0z and 6 z model runs of the GFS and NAM minus the short range models some posters really like. euro run looked okay from what I read, but not really good for anyone west of phl.

QPF numbers have been dropping each run from NYC/Long Island on west

clearly the gfs and nam show warning level snowfall should be met in the PHL burbs of Chester county, montgomery county and bucks county and possbily Lehigh County in PA

I am currently sitting Doylestown, PA and this area has gone from a big event yesterday to around 6-8 inches on the NAM/GFS recent runs.

Where I live in NJ in Edison, same pattern of lowering QPF holds true looking at recent trends. most models show around 12 inches in edison, a big ticket event.

hopefully some of the short range models are correct for people on the western edge. i just don't like the recent model runs for my area and west.

[Atlas]

RUC continues to look good, but who knows how well you can trust it.

[goldstar]

Track of the storm looks to be key here over the next 6-12 hours. I wonder what will verify, and if this storm really does get as intense as the models have suggested. We will get to see how true again the correlation between intensity and track.

Good luck to all you snow weenies out there, you know who you are!

[ptb127]

09z RUC has a 980mb low just off S NJ/C NJ coast at 03z monday... with heavy band moving from E to W making it into E PA but also bringing dryslot into coastal areas. Impressive RUC signal for heavy band..

ruc_p01_018m.gif

ruc_700_018m.gif

Tried accessing those links and they were broken.. can you fix them or post new ones?

[RedSky]

this ones creeping a bit too far east looking at current conditions. yesterday i was thinking 10" in upper bucks and right now feel like my expectations need to be down closer to 5-6"

better than nothing thats for sure

[goldstar]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2136.html

Calling for western edge of guidance, so watch out!

[goldstar]

SPC says they are leaning to the SREF to boot:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN

NY...SWRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261156Z - 261800Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS

MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND

FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST

PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE

CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN

LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z.

DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX

PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS

COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE

OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND

15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON

WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF

GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY

BE CORRECT.

TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND

CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE

CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY

BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.

[SnowGoose69]

overall the trends have not been to positive in my view on the 0z and 6 z model runs of the GFS and NAM minus the short range models some posters really like. euro run looked okay from what I read, but not really good for anyone west of phl.

QPF numbers have been dropping each run from NYC/Long Island on west

clearly the gfs and nam show warning level snowfall should be met in the PHL burbs of Chester county, montgomery county and bucks county and possbily Lehigh County in PA

I am currently sitting Doylestown, PA and this area has gone from a big event yesterday to around 6-8 inches on the NAM/GFS recent runs.

Where I live in NJ in Edison, same pattern of lowering QPF holds true looking at recent trends. most models show around 12 inches in edison, a big ticket event.

hopefully some of the short range models are correct for people on the western edge. i just don't like the recent model runs for my area and west.

Nothing unusual, the QPF amounts ALWAYS drop as the event is nearing or occurring, they will likely drop a tad more on the 12Z runs...hence why I was saying an average of 13 for the 5 boroughs and not 15-18 as the QPF may have indicated last night or even 20.

[A-L-E-X]

overall the trends have not been to positive in my view on the 0z and 6 z model runs of the GFS and NAM minus the short range models some posters really like. euro run looked okay from what I read, but not really good for anyone west of phl.

QPF numbers have been dropping each run from NYC/Long Island on west

clearly the gfs and nam show warning level snowfall should be met in the PHL burbs of Chester county, montgomery county and bucks county and possbily Lehigh County in PA

I am currently sitting Doylestown, PA and this area has gone from a big event yesterday to around 6-8 inches on the NAM/GFS recent runs.

Where I live in NJ in Edison, same pattern of lowering QPF holds true looking at recent trends. most models show around 12 inches in edison, a big ticket event.

hopefully some of the short range models are correct for people on the western edge. i just don't like the recent model runs for my area and west.

Theyre not dropping, man.... theyve always been 1.25-1.50 for this area and the track has consistently been over MTP to maybe 50 miles east of there and its just fine for a 12-20 inch snowfall for NYC and Long Island.

[A-L-E-X]

Nothing unusual, the QPF amounts ALWAYS drop as the event is nearing or occurring, they will likely drop a tad more on the 12Z runs...hence why I was saying an average of 13 for the 5 boroughs and not 15-18 as the QPF may have indicated last night or even 20.

If the convective elements for this storm really get going as it bombs, can you see an area of 18-20 over western and central long island and the jersey shore? The track for this thing seems to be wobbling, but not trending.

[LVblizzard]

Here on the western edge of the heavy snow area, I'm glad the SPC thinks it'll come west. Every little 10-mile shift makes a big difference west of the Delaware.

[CoastalWx]

Congrats guys....Big banding near NYC possible.

[goldstar]

Here on the western edge of the heavy snow area, I'm glad the SPC thinks it'll come west. Every little 10-mile shift makes a big difference west of the Delaware.

You and me both LVblizzard, it is interesting to note that the area of precip over GA and SC seems to be growing and expanding, I think that feature may be key if it can hold on and become more dynamic.

Let the games begin!

[A-L-E-X]

Congrats guys....Big banding near NYC possible.

Thanks! Hope you get in on it too!

[NEXtreme]

Brent Anderson from accuweather whose always so conservative on the snow amounts says this:

looks like an all out blizzard from central NJ through the NYC tri state area. There will be accums of at least 20" in this region. This is a classic track for NYC. Long Island hit hard with the wind, heavy snow and drifts.