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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

NickD2011

By NickD2011,
in New York City Metro

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Thanks...watching all these different model runs is gonna drive my crazy...The WSW for our area is saying 8"-12" & I'm sure there's the possibility to see that number increase by a decent amount if everything goes right. On the other hand, several of the hi-res model runs have us just out of reach of the sweet spot. It's time to wait it out & keep my fingers crossed.

If that RUC trend works out, youll be in great shape. That will also make the southern MA folks happier lol.

RUC/SREF combo!

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Not worth it if you ask me...getting up early tomorrow...and after that it's your typical winter storm all nighter. See you guys then :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Yeah I agree with you there-- 12/19 was a cosmic failure for me. I stayed up ALL night the night before and then all morning waiting for the storm to hit and it was delayed so much that I didnt get to see much of anything and by the time it really hit I was so tired I passed out and didnt wake up until the next morning and missed everything but the tail end lol.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

06Z NAM is, a bit east maybe with the QPF...the radar image early this afternoon is going to eerily resemble 12/30/00 before the storm started....start time seems to have been pushed back a bit for the heavy stuff

Does it look like the storm might slow down and last longer too?

Maybe more snow for us!

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ScottB

ScottB

Posted
Posted

Yeah I agree with you there-- 12/19 was a cosmic failure for me. I stayed up ALL night the night before and then all morning waiting for the storm to hit and it was delayed so much that I didnt get to see much of anything and by the time it really hit I was so tired I passed out and didnt wake up until the next morning and missed everything but the tail end lol.

Same EXACT thing happened for me as well. It was horrible. laugh.gif

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted

Please don't worry about the NAM right now...it has been fluctuating run to run. The SREF came west (Again) and the dependable hi-res models are fine. Plus, it's 3am. Time for sleep, big day tomorrow.

If anything, the 3z appears to be slightly east with the 500 features/SLP compared to 21z...(Compare hour 30 and hour 36) Then again, I could be reading it wrong..Not too many people seem to be awake and looking at these models right now. lol

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

If anything, the 3z appears to be slightly east with the 500 features/SLP compared to 21z...(Compare hour 30 and hour 36) Then again, I could be reading it wrong..Not too many people seem to be awake and looking at these models right now. lol

I'm comparing hours 18-21 on 06z to the same valid times at 00z (when the frontogenic band is over NJ/NYC/LI) and the sfc low and isobars definitely are a bit north/northwest..as is the spread. The QPF spread (really the main topic of discussion anyways since they were talking about the NAM QPF) definitely bumped west in this area although the gradient tightened back in PA. All in all the mean is still very robust.

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

If anything, the 3z appears to be slightly east with the 500 features/SLP compared to 21z...(Compare hour 30 and hour 36) Then again, I could be reading it wrong..Not too many people seem to be awake and looking at these models right now. lol

Seems the same, maybe 3 miles east. I can't tell to be honest.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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Yeah you can't see NJ at all..for a means that seems way amped up..really makes me wonder on the QPF then ....thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I think 1.25 was the lowest I could find for here-- hopefully it means backbuilding out towards you guys.... Ive seen forecasts for 8-12 for Allentown and the Poconos just north of there.

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

I think 1.25 was the lowest I could find for here-- hopefully it means backbuilding out towards you guys.... Ive seen forecasts for 8-12 for Allentown and the Poconos just north of there.

Yeah the latest HPC images look good for here but the cut off they have is like just to my west by a few hairs ....we are already down to 998 mbs ...so this thing is starting to decline....decline as in pressure...

The above is the map that I issued but if we end up as amped as that means suggests,,,

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lindywx

lindywx

Posted
Posted

This is the way I see the storm totals breaking down in the high impact areas of the Tri-State:

11am - 7pm 3-5"

7pm - 3am 8-12"

3am- Finish 3-5"

There will probably be a lot of people panicking because the radar will not have the traditional smoothed out look to our SSW as the storm commences. Instead it will be more of a blossoming from the SSE as rapid cyclonegenesis takes place. The models have consistently shown the same general jackpot area over the last several runs so pre storm confidence could not be higher. Of course I'm not talking about the western fringe areas where people will be on pins and needles all day. Nothing scientific, but with the storm tucked in so close to the coast I can easily see some of the earlier runs of the models verifying with the western extent. So, Good Luck Philly and DC areas! It's more fun when everyone gets in on the action anyway. People have been talking here about how all these major storms of the 2000's have not stood out like the Big Ones of past decades. For me, the Lindsay Storm, both the Jan 20th. & Feb 1978 storms along with Feb 1983 and Jan 1996 are the ones that stand out. Among these storms, Feb 1978 had the highest impact and it is not even close. I believe Paul Kocin wrote about this in the preface to the first book. Because of the "Good Bust" that occured on Jan 20th, 1978, the general public had lost confidence in NWS and media Mets and basically ignored 3 days of warnings that preceded this storm. The 7am start time that morning was too late to deter people from setting out to work that day and when it was evident several hours later that we were going to get nailed, many buisnesses decided to shut down after lunch. This coincided with about 90 minutes of Thundersnow and True Whiteout conditions that dropped snow at the rate of 3-5" per hour. I'm not exagerating about this. For those of you that did not live through this storm, it brought this area to a standstill as vehicles were stranded everywhere. This will not happen with this storm because of the timing. The wind speed projections have me concerned though with this storm because of the prospect of losing power. Here on L.I., any wind gusts above 40mph can cause widespread problems with our power lines being above ground. So be safe and enjoy. If everything pans out as progged and the snow can stay dry enough maybe we can witness True Whiteout conditons where you can't see 100 feet. That would make this storm stand out......Vinny

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Diego

Diego

Posted
Posted

Fwiw, Taunton's MFD looks encouraging.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

DIFFICULT FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THE 26/00Z MODELS. GFS

CONTINUES TO HAVE A DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE NAM...BUT

NO NEARLY AS SLOW AS THE 03Z SREF. WITH SUCH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN

POSITION THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH USE

THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO TREND EXISTING FORECAST.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND TRACK OF THIS STORM.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...WHICH

WILL ALSO SHIFT THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AS

WELL. TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO

A BIT QUICKER...BUT NOT BY MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY FROM SOUTH

TO NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO

30 MPH POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DID NOT MENTION IT IN THE

FORECAST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY

WILL BE THE RESULT. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS TODAY SHOULD TRY TO

COMPLETE THEIR TRIPS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

THERMAL PROFILES TONIGHT WILL BE CRITICAL TO EXPECTED IMPACTS

ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM AT 925 MB AND

850 MB WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WAS

DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. DID ADJUST THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...

WHICH REDUCED EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE

ISLANDS. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THIS AREA WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES ALSO PRESENT A DIFFICULT SNOWFALL

FORECAST. INTRODUCED THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH

THE SNOW AND REDUCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HERE SLIGHTLY. THE GRADIENT

WILL BE VERY TIGHT THOUGH.

ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED THE EXISTING BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM

WARNINGS. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD WARNING FARTHER

WEST...BUT JUST DO NOT THINK THE SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA WILL BE

MET THAT FAR INLAND FOR A STORM OFF THE COAST. WIND GUSTS WILL

MOST LIKELY APPROACH 40-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR CAPE COD AND ALL OF THE

ISLANDS. IT IS NOT A BLIZZARD WARNING BECAUSE THE HIGHEST WINDS

MAY OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD OF RAINFALL.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

GFS just a smidge more strung out and late consolidating the low, or it could just be its natural process lowering QPF just prior to the event. "Only" 1.25"+ for Long Island/NYC instead of 1.5" by 6z Mon the past few runs. Still snowing then, though

Slower too? Might mean for a more extended event! Let me know when you get final qpf numbers-- hopefully we stay above that 1.5" mark!

Does it have the low as below 970mb hitting Montauk Point?

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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Posted

Upton has maintained it's blizzard warnings and revised its totals upwards from 11 to 16."

That might go higher-- they have Toms River area and Barnegat down for 12 to 20"

Wind gusts tonight between 50 and 65 mph.....

Even sustained winds approaching 50!

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Montauk up to 33 degrees...not sure it means much yet but its something to note...

It May! Feb 1969 saw 15-22" in and around the city proper ranging down to 2-4" at the Twin Forks.

But you would think that modeling has improved in 41 years and no model is showing mostly rain for the Point

It looked like they have rain for the area from westhampton beach and further east up until noon or 1 pm or so-- totals only get cut down to 8-12, so not that bad.

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