YoRyz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I dont know if its just me... but I didnt really feel 1/05 was all that good here lol-- I mean for SNE it was GREAT-- but for us it was just a "nice" snowstorm (lol, Im so spoiled), certainly not nearly on the level of Feb 83, Jan 96 or PD2. And one of the advantages of being up late is lax mod rules-- we can just banter on lol. The mid days and early evenings suck sometimes with all the drama coupled with the server slow downs. I'm still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Link? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/index_bsp_s_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep....sp_s_loop.shtml That's just amazing, thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I basically put 1/05 in the same "meh" category as 2/06 for us-- snowfall was about the same here. 1/05 knocked my house's flag pole and some bushes over, plus drifted to the extent that it was hard to get out of the house. Or so I've heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Backup RUC reflectivity at 01Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Really? I got a lot more in 1/05 than 2/06...like 16 or 17" to 13", respectively. It was close lol-- I had a really hard time measuring. JFK supposedly got 17" and Im like 4 miles from there, so I dont know if it was 13" here or somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 1/05 knocked my house's flag pole and some bushes over, plus drifted to the extent that it was hard to get out of the house. Or so I've heard. How fast were the winds? I might have missed some of it if it occurred really late at night lol. Now you see why I dont like 2am storms lol. I would love to have a 36 hr snowstorm that starts one morning continues all day and all night and all day the next day and ends later on that night and the moon comes out just after midnight with the wind still blowing and the snow drifting all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Tmagan, do you think if the storm comes further west like the RUC seems to indicate that we might have mixing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Unbelievable deformation banding signal on the MM5 If that is right (and based on my past experiences with the SUNY and comments here as well as other model info, it could be), KNYC should have little difficulty hitting top 10 territory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Alright, I need some sleep now. Want to get up around 7AM, check things, and maybe get some more garden cleanup done... stayed up extra late to get as much done as I can since once its burried tomorrow, I probably won't be able to until I return again (no earlier than March and maybe not until May). If this storm doesn't deliver a solid foot to me I'll consider it a failure. Haven't had a foot storm in nearly 7 years... I think its the AccuWeather curse Bring on the foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 RUC accumulated snowfall through 05Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Tmagan, do you think if the storm comes further west like the RUC seems to indicate that we might have mixing issues? I think it is a fairly decent chance over eastern L.I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Is it wrong that a possible 10" doesn't really impress me? Perhaps I am spoiled thanks to last winter. How do my Philly brethren gauge this storm potential vs. other storms and perhaps the maximum potential of this one? I hear ya...we've had a pretty amazing stretch over the past 5 years. From 1/22/05 to 2/12/06, the twin ice/sleet storms in 2007, then of course last year, we've had a great run. I remember the stretch from 77-83 and 92-96 as being similar, and the balloon can pop at any time. This one could be a bonus for us. We're really in a tight spot though...the margin of error for us is small. We could see the full effects as this thing bombs off the coast, or we could be spectators as it develops too late to bury us. Either way, I've had enough junk winters in my life to realize that a storm that gives us 10"+ is still a memorable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Alright, I need some sleep now. Want to get up around 7AM, check things, and maybe get some more garden cleanup done... stayed up extra late to get as much done as I can since once its burried tomorrow, I probably won't be able to until I return again (no earlier than March and maybe not until May). If this storm doesn't deliver a solid foot to me I'll consider it a failure. Haven't had a foot storm in nearly 7 years... I think its the AccuWeather curse Bring on the foot! Lol the mood swings from positive to negative back to positive with this storm were monumental. What do you think of the long range Euro now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think it is a fairly decent chance over eastern L.I. east of Islip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I hear ya...we've had a pretty amazing stretch over the past 5 years. From 1/22/05 to 2/12/06, the twin ice/sleet storms in 2007, then of course last year, we've had a great run. I remember the stretch from 77-83 and 92-96 as being similar, and the balloon can pop at any time. This one could be a bonus for us. We're really in a tight spot though...the margin of error for us is small. We could see the full effects as this thing bombs off the coast, or we could be spectators as it develops too late to bury us. Either way, I've had enough junk winters in my life to realize that a storm that gives us 10"+ is still a memorable one. There will be tense moments here tomorrow afternoon and evening, radar hallucinations that are good and bad and everything else, but we know that coming into every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 east of Islip? oh please no... make it east of 112 or William Floyd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 east of Islip? Yes, but those coastal front locations are tough to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I hear ya...we've had a pretty amazing stretch over the past 5 years. From 1/22/05 to 2/12/06, the twin ice/sleet storms in 2007, then of course last year, we've had a great run. I remember the stretch from 77-83 and 92-96 as being similar, and the balloon can pop at any time. This one could be a bonus for us. We're really in a tight spot though...the margin of error for us is small. We could see the full effects as this thing bombs off the coast, or we could be spectators as it develops too late to bury us. Either way, I've had enough junk winters in my life to realize that a storm that gives us 10"+ is still a memorable one. Hopefully you get in on a lot of the heavy stuff. Also, I told my sister up in Carbon County that she should get close to a foot and if it doesnt work out there will be hell to pay for me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 i kno its 6z nam but it looks a lil east and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does the NAM look east, or does the area get most precip. after hr. 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 oh boy what did the nam just do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 There will be tense moments here tomorrow afternoon and evening, radar hallucinations that are good and bad and everything else, but we know that coming into every storm. From a moderator standpoint, I hope nobody is disappointed. It's so much easier that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Please don't worry about the NAM right now...it has been fluctuating run to run. The SREF came west (Again) and the dependable hi-res models are fine. Plus, it's 3am. Time for sleep, big day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 06z RUC is tucked in way west..damn, this would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Please don't worry about the NAM right now...it has been fluctuating run to run. The SREF came west (Again) and the dependable hi-res models are fine. Plus, it's 3am. Time for sleep, big day tomorrow. the NAM has been the worst model all season long-- right now it has the same amount of credibility as the KMA or the CRAS until the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Please don't worry about the NAM right now...it has been fluctuating run to run. The SREF came west (Again) and the dependable hi-res models are fine. Plus, it's 3am. Time for sleep, big day tomorrow. I guess no staying up til 5 am for the GFS then lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hopefully you get in on a lot of the heavy stuff. Also, I told my sister up in Carbon County that she should get close to a foot and if it doesnt work out there will be hell to pay for me lol. Thanks...watching all these different model runs is gonna drive my crazy...The WSW for our area is saying 8"-12" & I'm sure there's the possibility to see that number increase by a decent amount if everything goes right. On the other hand, several of the hi-res model runs have us just out of reach of the sweet spot. It's time to wait it out & keep my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 06z RUC is tucked in way west..damn, this would be awesome. Wow, it can't get much better than that for the entire geographic area covered by this subforum. Please let that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I guess no staying up til 5 am for the GFS then lol. Not worth it if you ask me...getting up early tomorrow...and after that it's your typical winter storm all nighter. See you guys then :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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