NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[real]

I am from DC but rooting for all you in NY. If nothing else, -- After five sleepless nights watching this thing, I hope its memorable, and a good hit on NY would make it memorable. But I really wouldn't still be up waiting for first flakes. Your show is tomorrow. If you look around the boards, no one is jumping up and down, from Southeast to Mid-Altantic, about their snowfall totals so far. It's going to to have to wait till it cranks up a bit --- tomorrow.

[A-L-E-X]

Basically a 2/6/10 event but maybe 50 miles north of where that event ended up. What a fooking shame. At its worst, I could practically SWIM out to where the heavy, 2"+/hr snow was happening. Here, we had bouts of light snow that added up to 1.5" or so.

50 miles is what separated 09-10 from 95-96...... We would have topped it with that storm!

[ace0927]

ok- so i worry for no reason....

im off to bed. good night all....

[SnowGoose69]

Was that a slow moving storm? How much did we get? Couldnt have been 10 inches plus-- since there were no 10 inch amts recorded in NYC between 1983 and 1993 lol.

EWR and LGA saw 11-12, Central Park only 8.5

[tmagan]

I wonder if KOKX thought about a 'huuricane force wind warning' for the far outer waters of their areas of responsibility?

[A-L-E-X]

That sounding is peanuts compared to what we had to fight off in PDII, 96 blizzard, and 12/09

and Feb 83. Maybe even Feb 78 too.

Basically it took hours for snow to move up from the south in all of those-- I remember in PD2 JFK had snow falling 4 hours before LGA! Might have contributed to them getting 10 inches more snow lol.

[nzucker]

Move out to State College, PA, and then you'll see your more than fair share of mild to moderate snow events with plenty of modeled big threats that never pan out, and then the resultant ripping out of hair follicles, etc. But anyway, the -NAO and -AO is definitely helping out here, since without the -NAO and -AO we've recently had, ths blitzkrieg could never have materialized. I think we're reentering the 1960s again meteorologically, and we had some pretty awesome years then. But who knows what some random ingredient like +1 global temperature or whatever new parameter can affect the outcome. Let's just hope this all blitzes us, and that somehow after this storm we can salvage a decent enough winter. Personally I don't think so, but I've been proven wrong as recently as last night when I called for no more than a few inches in NYC and nothing more than that west of maybe Riverhead. This setup is really a very new phenomeon the models haven't been faced with since the 60s, where there were frequent Ninas and -NAOs.

People need to take into account we haven't seen a solar minimum like this since around 1810, and these dips in solar activity have powerful effects on the NAO/AO. No one really knows what weather conditions were exactly in those days but we can definitely surmise from newspapers and journals that places like PHL and NYC had more severe winters than common in the 1980-2010 period. The extreme AO/NAO block we've enjoyed since Summer 2008 has almost definitely been caused by this unique solar cycle as it has persisted through nearly all ENSO states from weak Niña to strong Niño to strong Niña. Global temperatures might also play a factor in increasing precipitation for our area (as might the high AMO) but I think that's dwarfed by the high-latitude blocking that is pushing the jet south and then allowing these troughs to stall.

I think we're going to have a fine winter this year. All the models show the -NAO/-AO building back in by early January, so I doubt we go immediately into a torch pattern following this storm. I'm going to play the persistence card with the blocking and assumes it continues for couple weeks of January and maybe makes a reappearance in late February/early March as other stronger Niña winters have seen.

[SnowGoose69]

I wonder if KOKX thought about a 'huuricane force wind warning' for the far outer waters of their areas of responsibility?

I just read the coastal waters forecast, its amazing how 20 miles south of the shore most of the precip in these falls as rain.

[Kingwill]

NAM and GFS perhaps underplaying storm a bit?

Lead[-]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION <br style="min-width: 0px; ">NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD <br style="min-width: 0px; ">1130 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 <br style="min-width: 0px; "><br style="min-width: 0px; ">VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC <br style="min-width: 0px; ">...<br style="min-width: 0px; ">THE NAM AND GFS ARE 3-4 HPA TOO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEMS <br style="min-width: 0px; ">SURFACE LOW...BOTH MISSING OUT ON A LARGE ENOUGH 1008 HPA ISOBAR <br style="min-width: 0px; ">THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT BY THE GUIDANCE...WHICH COULD <br style="min-width: 0px; ">INDICATE THEIR SURFACE LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WILL BE <br style="min-width: 0px; ">SLIGHTLY TOO WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.-<br style="min-width: 0px; "> -- storm should be a bit stronger and farther west than the NAM and GFS are depicting, is what I get out of that mumbojumbo.

[A-L-E-X]

I wonder if KOKX thought about a 'huuricane force wind warning' for the far outer waters of their areas of responsibility?

What's the highest winds we've ever had in a 100% pure snowstorm?

I have a short list, but I didnt experience most of these, so I dont know which would be #1

March 1960, January 1978, February 1978, January 1996 in chronological order.

I think 1/96 was the only true blizzard I have ever experienced.

Not sure if any of the storms last year would make the list.

[Sn0waddict]

Off to bed, I'm probably too excited to even fall sleep sadly. Gonna be a great day tomorrow folks.

[WeatherFox]

That sounding is peanuts compared to what we had to fight off in PDII, 96 blizzard, and 12/09

Thanx, glad to hear that.

[A-L-E-X]

I just read the coastal waters forecast, its amazing how 20 miles south of the shore most of the precip in these falls as rain.

shades of Dec 2003. I hope it doesnt make it onshore lol-- in Dec 2003 it was always 5-10 miles south of us, which actually enhanced the snowfall. On the second day of the storm, when it got much colder, the snow wasnt as heavy.

[jm1220]

I just read the coastal waters forecast, its amazing how 20 miles south of the shore most of the precip in these falls as rain.

I always wondered that, if the precip in the coastal waters 30 or so miles off falls as rain or a mix despite what models show in terms of 850mb/sfc temp.

[A-L-E-X]

People need to take into account we haven't seen a solar minimum like this since around 1810, and these dips in solar activity have powerful effects on the NAO/AO. No one really knows what weather conditions were exactly in those days but we can definitely surmise from newspapers and journals that places like PHL and NYC had more severe winters than common in the 1980-2010 period. The extreme AO/NAO block we've enjoyed since Summer 2008 has almost definitely been caused by this unique solar cycle as it has persisted through nearly all ENSO states from weak Niña to strong Niño to strong Niña. Global temperatures might also play a factor in increasing precipitation for our area (as might the high AMO) but I think that's dwarfed by the high-latitude blocking that is pushing the jet south and then allowing these troughs to stall.

I think we're going to have a fine winter this year. All the models show the -NAO/-AO building back in by early January, so I doubt we go immediately into a torch pattern following this storm. I'm going to play the persistence card with the blocking and assumes it continues for couple weeks of January and maybe makes a reappearance in late February/early March as other stronger Niña winters have seen.

I hope the sun stays like this for a long time. Ironically enough, I have heard neg nao blocks are also great for scorching summers lol.... so maybe there really is a link between scorching summers and high snowfall winters

[earthlight]

Sunday: A chance of light snow before 9am, then snow likely between 9am and 3pm, then snow and widespread blowing snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 31. North wind between 8 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[SnowGoose69]

I always wondered that, if the precip in the coastal waters 30 or so miles off falls as rain or a mix despite what models show in terms of 850mb/sfc temp.

I assume cause the boundary layer is so damn warm...sort of why coastal NJ can rain on a 040 wind

[A-L-E-X]

I always wondered that, if the precip in the coastal waters 30 or so miles off falls as rain or a mix despite what models show in terms of 850mb/sfc temp.

That mix line might make it onto eastern LI-- hopefully not here lol.

[A-L-E-X]

I assume cause the boundary layer is so damn warm...sort of why coastal NJ can rain on a 040 wind

In this case, we benefit from having an ocean to our south as a NE wind comes off the sound, not the ocean.

[WeatherFox]

You forgot - Blizzard Warnings!

Sunday: A chance of light snow before 9am, then snow likely between 9am and 3pm, then snow and widespread blowing snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 31. North wind between 8 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[nzucker]

That mix line might make it onto eastern LI-- hopefully not here lol.

I think you'll be fine, Alex. Come online if you have a chance, I'm on AIM.

[jm1220]

What's the highest winds we've ever had in a 100% pure snowstorm?

I have a short list, but I didnt experience most of these, so I dont know which would be #1

March 1960, January 1978, February 1978, January 1996 in chronological order.

I think 1/96 was the only true blizzard I have ever experienced.

Not sure if any of the storms last year would make the list.

Moderators please delete if you guys will, but we are down to get CRUSHED, just OBLITERATED, DETONATED. :thumbsup:

This has to be the best setup we've seen since 1/22/05, which was the last really detonating storm we've had at our favored lat/lon. This might really be a crippling storm for many in this area especially if the wind verifies.

[A-L-E-X]

Moderators please delete if you guys will, but we are down to get CRUSHED, just OBLITERATED, DETONATED. :thumbsup:

This has to be the best setup we've seen since 1/22/05, which was the last really detonating storm we've had at our favored lat/lon. This might really be a crippling storm for many in this area especially if the wind verifies.

I dont know if its just me... but I didnt really feel 1/05 was all that good here lol-- I mean for SNE it was GREAT-- but for us it was just a "nice" snowstorm (lol, Im so spoiled), certainly not nearly on the level of Feb 83, Jan 96 or PD2.

And one of the advantages of being up late is lax mod rules-- we can just banter on lol. The mid days and early evenings suck sometimes with all the drama coupled with the server slow downs.

[NorEaster27]

Moderators please delete if you guys will, but we are down to get CRUSHED, just OBLITERATED, DETONATED. :thumbsup:

This has to be the best setup we've seen since 1/22/05, which was the last really detonating storm we've had at our favored lat/lon. This might really be a crippling storm for many in this area especially if the wind verifies.

:thumbsup:

[A-L-E-X]

I basically put 1/05 in the same "meh" category as 2/06 for us-- snowfall was about the same here.

[Dsnowx53]

I basically put 1/05 in the same "meh" category as 2/06 for us-- snowfall was about the same here.

Really? I got a lot more in 1/05 than 2/06...like 16 or 17" to 13", respectively.

[benfica356]

03z SREF are amazing

[jwilson]

Is it wrong that a possible 10" doesn't really impress me? Perhaps I am spoiled thanks to last winter. How do my Philly brethren gauge this storm potential vs. other storms and perhaps the maximum potential of this one?

[earthlight]

Unbelievable deformation banding signal on the MM5

[Sn0waddict]

03z SREF are amazing

Link?