NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[A-L-E-X]

the only storm of my adult life that i can even think comes close to matching that is dec 1992...which in terms of coastal flooding was worse...w/out the snow :-(

Where were you for Dec 92? That was the storm I was thinking of also-- and we got 1-2 inches of snow on the backside. Heavy snow was amazingly close to us for all the rain we suffered through lol.

I mean, we were in the mid - upper 30s for like three days with that thing, winds gusting to 85 mph! I think winds further out on the Island were gusting close to 100!

[ace0927]

We do have at least one of them a winter, but nothing like how often they happened in the 80s and the 90s.

correct, that was my point.

Maybe because of the circumstances of last yrs winter (3 KU's) i didnt remember the small one in mid february

[ace0927]

Ace, which were the two that had equally deep h850 lows?

i posted them earlier...jan 66 and mar 93

[NorthShoreWx]

I hope this thing stalls out 100 miles to our southeast as some of the modeling is predicting-- I would love to see a snowy version of Dec 92. From what youre saying thats what Feb 78 basically was.

Thats not a bad description. It takes a bit of imagination, but I'd call it a serviceable description.

[A-L-E-X]

Thats not a bad description. It takes a bit of imagination, but I'd call it a serviceable description.

I remember that Dec 92 storm stalled in the ideal spot-- just off the Delaware coast. The only thing was there wasnt a nice big arctic high to our north to funnel in cold air-- the very heavy wet snow that fell over NW NJ and Interior SNE was elevation dependent.

[ace0927]

Where were you for Dec 92? That was the storm I was thinking of also-- and we got 1-2 inches of snow on the backside. Heavy snow was amazingly close to us for all the rain we suffered through lol.

I mean, we were in the mid - upper 30s for like three days with that thing, winds gusting to 85 mph! I think winds further out on the Island were gusting close to 100!

i was in Jamaica Estates in queens...parents house....i remember it was a thursday night. I played Ice Hockey late night (1AM) in Long Beach and driving home was a disaster.....i thought in queens i received abt 4" on the backside...when i turned on NY1 friday at like noon all I remember seeing was the East River spilling onto the FDR....I was like how the hell did that happen....that was an amazing storm. Definitely a higher impact storm for NYC than mar 1993. Probably the highest impact non snow event in NYC over the past 30 yrs

[SnowGoose69]

I remember that Dec 92 storm stalled in the ideal spot-- just off the Delaware coast. The only thing was there wasnt a nice big arctic high to our north to funnel in cold air-- the very heavy wet snow that fell over NW NJ and Interior SNE was elevation dependent.

There was basically no cold air anywhere in the nation at all.

[A-L-E-X]

i was in Jamaica Estates in queens...parents house....i remember it was a thursday night. I played Ice Hockey late night (1AM) in Long Beach and driving home was a disaster.....i thought in queens i received abt 4" on the backside...when i turned on NY1 friday at like noon all I remember seeing was the East River spilling onto the FDR....I was like how the hell did that happen....that was an amazing storm. Definitely a higher impact storm for NYC than mar 1993. Probably the highest impact non snow event in NYC over the past 30 yrs

It felt like being in the middle of a 3 day hurricane lol. Fences, trees, down everywhere. The wind kept whistling for days on end and massive flooding during high tides-- and the tides never actually went back out because of the consistent easterly flow. I believe the LIRR was shut down because the water rose onto the tracks. There were water rescuses in Queens with rapidly rising flood water getting close to rooftops. Brooklyn (Sea Gate) and Coastal Jersey (Sea Bright) were also very hard hit. It was like the Ash Wednesday March 1962 storm, but further north.

[ace0927]

am I the only one who doesnt like what he is seeing on the radar? precip seems to be slipping out east.....

EDIT- also look at the lower miss valley....the precip seems to diving SSW in northern miss

[A-L-E-X]

There was basically no cold air anywhere in the nation at all.

That just confirms to me that Worcester, MA can get an HECS in any weather pattern lol-- they had like 32 inches in that storm. That was a storm JM would have loved to be in State College for, as they got 35"

The two jackpot locations in 1992-93 were State College and Syracuse. State College for Dec 92 and Syracuse for March 1993, when they got 48" of snow!

[earthlight]

am I the only one who doesnt like what he is seeing on the radar? precip seems to be slipping out east.....

EDIT- also look at the lower miss valley....the precip seems to diving SSW in northern miss

This was well forecast...I posted yesterday that there would be posts like this. The storm is still off the southeast US coast..it is not even close to our area. The deform banding isn't developing until tomorrow night. Look where the 06z RUC initialized the surface low

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RUCSE_6z/f00.gif

[tmagan]

am I the only one who doesnt like what he is seeing on the radar? precip seems to be slipping out east.....

EDIT- also look at the lower miss valley....the precip seems to diving SSW in northern miss

I don't see anything alarming.

[NorthShoreWx]

I posted yesterday that there would be posts like this.

Good forecast

[A-L-E-X]

am I the only one who doesnt like what he is seeing on the radar? precip seems to be slipping out east.....

EDIT- also look at the lower miss valley....the precip seems to diving SSW in northern miss

I dont think the storm is actually organized yet though.

[SnowGoose69]

am I the only one who doesnt like what he is seeing on the radar? precip seems to be slipping out east.....

EDIT- also look at the lower miss valley....the precip seems to diving SSW in northern miss

The models indicated that fairly well....thats the great thing about 2010...forecast models generally only err about 30-50 miles at 24 hours...its not like 20-25 years ago where you had to be on your heels for every bad radar or sat. image

[snowisgood]

I don't see anything alarming.

Everything looks right on track to move up the coast.

[earthlight]

Good forecast

[A-L-E-X]

This was well forecast...I posted yesterday that there would be posts like this. The storm is still off the southeast US coast..it is not even close to our area. The deform banding isn't developing until tomorrow night. Look where the 06z RUC initialized the surface low

http://www.meteo.psu...UCSE_6z/f00.gif

This actually begs the question-- what's the furthest south a coastal has ever been and yet still gotten snow up into our region? I would think it was March 1993-- because it was like still over Florida and snow had already streamed up the coast to us lol.

[A-L-E-X]

The models indicated that fairly well....thats the great thing about 2010...forecast models generally only err about 30-50 miles at 24 hours...its not like 20-25 years ago where you had to be on your heels for every bad radar or sat. image

I saw some newspaper clippings on a site about PD1 (Feb 1979)-- NWS was apologizing because they busted the forecast for NYC-- it was never supposed to bring heavy snow up here-- we ended up getting 10 inches or so, when we were supposed to get like 1-3 lol. Still not as big of a bust as Jan 1978.

[tmagan]

You know I don't believe in this 'the low pressure is one mb deeper, change the forecast stuff', but if there were ever a situation where the low ends up further west than forecast, this might be it.

[SnowGoose69]

This actually begs the question-- what's the furthest south a coastal has ever been and yet still gotten snow up into our region? I would think it was March 1993-- because it was like still over Florida and snow had already streamed up the coast to us lol.

January 87 was very close, it began snowing well ahead of the low.

[WeatherFox]

Just continuing to have virga falling from the sky over NYC. The column is still very dry and will take some hours to moisten.

[jm1220]

This almost seems to be a copy of the stretch from March 1960 to February 1961, except in reverse. 4 KU events in one year.... pretty much what we're having right now. We havent had too many 4-8 inchers lately-- I think last season we only had one lol. Either we have a really bad season with just one of those and a couple of 1-3 events tossed in or a really good season with just one of those but multiple 10+ events lol. Everything seems to be 1-3 or 10+ !

Move out to State College, PA, and then you'll see your more than fair share of mild to moderate snow events with plenty of modeled big threats that never pan out, and then the resultant ripping out of hair follicles, etc. But anyway, the -NAO and -AO is definitely helping out here, since without the -NAO and -AO we've recently had, ths blitzkrieg could never have materialized. I think we're reentering the 1960s again meteorologically, and we had some pretty awesome years then. But who knows what some random ingredient like +1 global temperature or whatever new parameter can affect the outcome. Let's just hope this all blitzes us, and that somehow after this storm we can salvage a decent enough winter. Personally I don't think so, but I've been proven wrong as recently as last night when I called for no more than a few inches in NYC and nothing more than that west of maybe Riverhead. This setup is really a very new phenomeon the models haven't been faced with since the 60s, where there were frequent Ninas and -NAOs.

[A-L-E-X]

January 87 was very close, it began snowing well ahead of the low.

Thanks, SG-- that was the famous Mid ATL winter where DC had like 4 9 inch snowstorms lol-- I think Jan 87 might have been the only one for us-- how much did we get?

Huge snowfall gradient that winter-- Monmouth County got like 60 inches of snow and NYC got like 25 inches!

[SnowGoose69]

January 87 was very close, it began snowing well ahead of the low.

A check confirms low was off Charleston when the snow began.

[weatherweather]

6z ruc just as west as the last 3 runs, fwiw

[A-L-E-X]

Move out to State College, PA, and then you'll see your more than fair share of mild to moderate snow events with plenty of modeled big threats that never pan out, and then the resultant ripping out of hair follicles, etc. But anyway, the -NAO and -AO is definitely helping out here, since without the -NAO and -AO we've recently had, ths blitzkrieg could never have materialized. I think we're reentering the 1960s again meteorologically, and we had some pretty awesome years then. But who knows what some random ingredient like +1 global temperature or whatever new parameter can affect the outcome. Let's just hope this all blitzes us, and that somehow after this storm we can salvage a decent enough winter. Personally I don't think so, but I've been proven wrong as recently as last night when I called for no more than a few inches in NYC and nothing more than that west of maybe Riverhead. This setup is really a very new phenomeon the models haven't been faced with since the 60s, where there were frequent Ninas and -NAOs.

I think this might be a bookend winter, where we see one more big snowstorm to close out the winter, like what happened in 1955-56 and 1959-60

One time I'd want to be in State College would be for a storm like Dec 92 or Mar 93-- you guys got buried in those!

I bet you did well in 93-94 too!

[jm1220]

I saw some newspaper clippings on a site about PD1 (Feb 1979)-- NWS was apologizing because they busted the forecast for NYC-- it was never supposed to bring heavy snow up here-- we ended up getting 10 inches or so, when we were supposed to get like 1-3 lol. Still not as big of a bust as Jan 1978.

Basically a 2/6/10 event but maybe 50 miles north of where that event ended up. What a fooking shame. At its worst, I could practically SWIM out to where the heavy, 2"+/hr snow was happening. Here, we had bouts of light snow that added up to 1.5" or so.

[SnowGoose69]

Just continuing to have virga falling from the sky over NYC. The column is still very dry and will take some hours to moisten.

That sounding is peanuts compared to what we had to fight off in PDII, 96 blizzard, and 12/09

[A-L-E-X]

A check confirms low was off Charleston when the snow began.

Was that a slow moving storm? How much did we get? Couldnt have been 10 inches plus-- since there were no 10 inch amts recorded in NYC between 1983 and 1993 lol.