NickD2011 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Let's discuss the storm here as it gets underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I know that they were talking about it already snowing in most of Delaware and southern NJ. We will be in the favorable left exit region of a 130 knot jet streak overnight. That is probably accounting for the snow breaking out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Long Island and Jersey Shore will get quite intense wind gusts. West of the city, probably 40 MPH gusts and a bit more also. Blizzarrd for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratuslove Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 hey guys just a friendly reminder, stay on topic, no IMBY questions... and dont post for the sake of posting... if you dont have anything pertinent to say...sit back and read and enjoy the show... lets keep the garbage posts down and keep this to a good weather discussion...make sure you reread the posting rules and regs! if you're not sure if you have a relavant post, err on the side of caution and dont post it! that being said, bring on the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 when was the last time we have seen as deep an h850 low at this latitude....i looked in the KU book, i came up with two. jan 66 ad mar 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 0z UKMET very similar to 0z NAM at all levels. SLP starts slightly SW of the NAM position at 12hr and passes a tick shoreward of the NAM track before ending up near Cape Cod at 36hr with same location and strength as NAM. That's a great track for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 00z UKMET I think this would work out well for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 take a look at the SPC mesoscale analayis page. Look at the 500mb in particular...you can already see the heights rising along the coast and the trough already looks like its trying to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Long Island and Jersey Shore will get quite intense wind gusts. West of the city, probably 40 MPH gusts and a bit more also. Blizzarrd for sure. I don't think you will see the sustained winds needed for a true blizzard for at least 3 hours. Absolutely you will see higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 take a look at the SPC mesoscale analayis page. Look at the 500mb in particular...you can already see the heights rising along the coast and the trough already looks like its trying to go negative. Does anyone have a link for this tool? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 More 00z Ukie Porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 hey guys just a friendly reminder, stay on topic, no IMBY questions... and dont post for the sake of posting... if you dont have anything pertinent to say...sit back and read and enjoy the show... lets keep the garbage posts down and keep this to a good weather discussion...make sure you reread the posting rules and regs! if you're not sure if you have a relavant post, err on the side of caution and dont post it! that being said, bring on the storm! This. This. A million times this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does anyone have a link for this tool? Thanks! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't think you will see the sustained winds needed for a true blizzard for at least 3 hours. Absolutely you will see higher gusts. Blizzard criteria is only frequent gusts to 35 mph. No sustained wind criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't think you will see the sustained winds needed for a true blizzard for at least 3 hours. Absolutely you will see higher gusts. I don't think either. Probably a sustained wind of 20 mph sounds likely. Gusts probably 40+. It should have quite the drifting all over the local areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm starting to become concerned with the amount of snow being shown, and the low level jet being as strong as it may be, that certain areas in New Jersey up north could be facing a significant natural disaster from downed trees and power lines. The models showing a 85 knot low level jet tonight are very very concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 So looking at the mesoscale, this thing is about to go inverted right? am I reading this right? Also, how 'high' do the heights need to be to relate to where the heaviest stuff would set up, is that able to be somewhat predicted based on the mesoscale data from the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 hey guys just a friendly reminder, stay on topic, no IMBY questions... and dont post for the sake of posting... if you dont have anything pertinent to say...sit back and read and enjoy the show... lets keep the garbage posts down and keep this to a good weather discussion...make sure you reread the posting rules and regs! if you're not sure if you have a relavant post, err on the side of caution and dont post it! that being said, bring on the storm! Yes, since the last thread thread turned into a disaster before it was locked, we are going to be using the 5 ppd rather liberally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm starting to become concerned with the amount of snow being shown, and the low level jet being as strong as it may be, that certain areas in New Jersey up north could be facing a significant natural disaster from downed trees and power lines. The models showing a 85 knot low level jet tonight are very very concerning. I'd be more worried if this was a wet snow, but its looking dry enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'd be more worried if this was a wet snow, but its looking dry enough. Even with gustier winds, chances seem fairly good that 2/10 will end up producing more tree damage than this storm except in the windiest locales that didn't get the good accums in 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SUNY MM5 is going to be a monster At 18 hours, it has a 530 dm closed 5H low in northern Georgia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 One thing is for sure. With it being so cold lately and the ground hard as a rock this stuff will begin sticking immediately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yes, since the last thread thread turned into a disaster before it was locked, we are going to be using the 5 ppd rather liberally. Just so everyone knows, this thread is going to be tightly moderated until 2am. Make good posts or go on 5ppd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'd be more worried if this was a wet snow, but its looking dry enough. If there is mixing issues out on the island. The snowpaste could cause major problems with the high winds along with the stress on trees and power lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 out to 27...I don't even have to look at the surface map to know what this 5H map would translate to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The MM5 is very classic looking with the H500 trough digging so far south and forming a closed low in Georiga (where have we seen that before... Oh, yes, the January 1996 Blizzard), it will be interesting to see if it can slow down a bit more (AKA cutoff low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Out to 24 the GGEM is further east than the NAM/Ukie/GFS, but has been this whole time, so nothing unexpected there. Still over or just inside the BM. Still plenty of snow for the NYC metro though. I'd say it holds serve. Actually would say the precip shield creeps a bit further west when compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Blizzard criteria is only frequent gusts to 35 mph. No sustained wind criteria. Ray is that something that has changed? I was always under the impression it was a sustained wind along with several other variables including visibility? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Philly Channel 6 ABC, just bumped metro Philly to 10-14", 12-20" CNJ northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just so everyone knows, this thread is going to be tightly moderated until 2am. Make good posts or go on 5ppd. Last thing, posters, please use the report button, it helps us a lot, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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