El Nino, La Nina, & Neutral winters - how big a difference does it really make?

[michsnowfreak]

For the past several years Ive been reading the ENSO threads in the main weather forum. Usually some good discussion. Different regions prefer different ENSO states. But I decided to actually really dive into the date (for Detroit) because it was pointed out that its not always as cut and dry as it seems. I analyzed the winters since 1950 (which is when the main enso chart starts). We all have seen those cookie-cutter "what to expect this winter" graphics they put out every year for El Nino or La Nina. But with enso being just ONE piece of the puzzle, its really not as simple as that. I always knew that, but to see how close actual data was was shocking.

IN SUMMARY- By far, STRONG El Ninos are the worst, as expected. They are by far the warmest and least snowy. But not really that dry - near normal precip in fact. The driest enso state is them all is a WEAK El Nino - but thats also the coldest and with the most snowcover. Colder than any La Nina or even neurtral!  The wettest and snowiest state is a WEAK La Nina. There are definitely differences, but the differences are far smaller than I anticipated.

THE DATA: When you break down simply as El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral, the data is remarkably close.

ALL El Ninos (27 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.9F
DJF precip avg: 6.07”
Season snow avg: 37.4”
1”+ snowcover avg: 44 days

ALL La Ninas (25 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.8F
DJF precip avg: 6.77”
Season snow avg: 44.9”
1”+ snowcover avg: 49 days

ALL Neutral years (23 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 26.6F
DJF precip avg: 6.66”
Season snow avg: 44.6” 
1”+ snowcover avg: 55 days

1950-2025 AVG (75 years)
DJF temp avg: 27.5F
DJF precip avg: 6.40”
Season snow avg: 41.5”
1”+ snowcover avg: 49 days
 

DIFFERENT EL NINO STRENGTHS

Strong El Ninos (9 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 30.7F 
DJF precip avg: 6.44”
Season snow avg: 29.9”
1”+ snowcover avg: 31 days

 

Moderate El Ninos (7 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.6F
DJF precip avg: 6.29”
Season snow avg: 42.3”
1”+ snowcover avg: 45 days

 

Weak El Ninos (11 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 25.8F
DJF precip avg: 5.63”
Season snow avg: 40.4”
1”+ snowcover avg: 55 days
 

DIFFERENT LA NINA STRENGTHS

Strong La Ninas (7 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.7F
DJF precip avg: 6.72”
Season snow avg: 49.2”
1”+ snowcover avg: 53 days
 

Moderate La Ninas (6 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 28.0F
DJF precip avg: 5.46”
Season snow avg: 37.7” 
1”+ snowcover avg: 40 days
 

Weak La Ninas (12 since 1950)
DJF temp avg: 27.8F
DJF precip avg: 7.45”
Season snow avg: 46.0”
1”+ snowcover avg: 51 days
 

[michsnowfreak]

For reference if youd like to look up your areas data:

Strong Ninos: 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24

Moderate Ninos: 1951-52, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1986-87, 1994-95, 2002-03, 2009-10

Weak Ninos: 1952-53, 1953-54, 1958-59, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1979-80, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, 2018-19

Strong Ninas: 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2007-08, 2010-11

Moderate Ninas: 1955-56, 1970-71, 1995-96, 2011-12, 2020-21, 2021-22

Weak Ninas: 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1983-84, 1984-85, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2022-23

Neutral: 1950-51, 1956-57, 1959-60, 1960-61, 1961-62, 1962-63, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1978-79, 1980-81, 1981-82, 1985-86, 1989-90, 1990-91, 1992-93, 1993-94, 1996-97, 2001-02, 2003-04, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2019-20, 2024-25