May Medium/Long Range

[peribonca]

The arrival of summer and backdoor cold fronts!

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO.... wetter this run for the weekend.

 

[frd]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO.... wetter this run for the weekend.

 

The rainfall distribution is rather blotchy

[high risk]

I'm calling it a night before waiting for the 00Z suite, but it's worth noting today that the Euro and AI-Euro both have the weekend trough cutting off and hanging around for a while and giving us a much-needed multi-day rain event.   It seems to have some ensemble support.    The GFS/GEFS, prior to the overnight runs, are very progressive with the trough and want nothing to do with the Euro idea.

[WxUSAF]

6 hours ago, high risk said:

I'm calling it a night before waiting for the 00Z suite, but it's worth noting today that the Euro and AI-Euro both have the weekend trough cutting off and hanging around for a while and giving us a much-needed multi-day rain event.   It seems to have some ensemble support.    The GFS/GEFS, prior to the overnight runs, are very progressive with the trough and want nothing to do with the Euro idea.

0z euro suite continues that. Almost a drought buster next week. GGEM and GFS both show the blocky pattern producing some slow moving systems, but different than euro suite. 

[dailylurker]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro suite continues that. Almost a drought buster next week. GGEM and GFS both show the blocky pattern producing some slow moving systems, but different than euro suite. 

This would be a big surprise to most people. Point and clicks have dry beautiful weather through the weekend and into next week.

[WxUSAF]

31 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

This would be a big surprise to most people. Point and clicks have dry beautiful weather through the weekend and into next week.

Pretty good agreement across guidance on Saturday rain. After that solutions diverge.

[frd]

 

 

Interesting 6 to 10 day outlook.  Not a real surprise though.

 

[Paleocene]

2 hours ago, frd said:

 

 

Interesting 6 to 10 day outlook.  Not a real surprise though.

 

 

is that precip or temps?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ICON is on board for a wet period ahead...what could possibly go wrong

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z ICON is on board for a wet period ahead...what could possibly go wrong

 

How is retirement treating you?. Loving the increase in maps. Please stay retired. 

[WxUSAF]

12z euro has 10” of rain in the next 2 weeks for central MD

[stormy]

This has a 10% chance of verification:

[Eskimo Joe]

40 minutes ago, stormy said:

This has a 10% chance of verification:

Euro mid range over amped bias kicking in again?

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro mid range over amped bias kicking in again?

It has support. 0z GFS-Graphcast had the cutoff solution, euro-Ai, eps, icon, and 12z geps took a step toward it. Gfs has a cutoff also, just a different evolution and focused rain to our north. 

[stormy]

There are signals from different directions that we could turn wet from May 3 - May 13.

Will it happen??  30% probability.....................

[aldie 22]

If this falls apart will there be a write up on what went wrong?

[MN Transplant]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

12z euro has 10” of rain in the next 2 weeks for central MD

On that run we barely see the sun for 10 days.