peribonca Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 The arrival of summer and backdoor cold fronts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 WB 12Z EURO.... wetter this run for the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 On 4/28/2025 at 7:33 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO.... wetter this run for the weekend. Expand The rainfall distribution is rather blotchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 I'm calling it a night before waiting for the 00Z suite, but it's worth noting today that the Euro and AI-Euro both have the weekend trough cutting off and hanging around for a while and giving us a much-needed multi-day rain event. It seems to have some ensemble support. The GFS/GEFS, prior to the overnight runs, are very progressive with the trough and want nothing to do with the Euro idea. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 4:09 AM, high risk said: I'm calling it a night before waiting for the 00Z suite, but it's worth noting today that the Euro and AI-Euro both have the weekend trough cutting off and hanging around for a while and giving us a much-needed multi-day rain event. It seems to have some ensemble support. The GFS/GEFS, prior to the overnight runs, are very progressive with the trough and want nothing to do with the Euro idea. Expand 0z euro suite continues that. Almost a drought buster next week. GGEM and GFS both show the blocky pattern producing some slow moving systems, but different than euro suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 10:14 AM, WxUSAF said: 0z euro suite continues that. Almost a drought buster next week. GGEM and GFS both show the blocky pattern producing some slow moving systems, but different than euro suite. Expand This would be a big surprise to most people. Point and clicks have dry beautiful weather through the weekend and into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 10:26 AM, dailylurker said: This would be a big surprise to most people. Point and clicks have dry beautiful weather through the weekend and into next week. Expand Pretty good agreement across guidance on Saturday rain. After that solutions diverge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Interesting 6 to 10 day outlook. Not a real surprise though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 12:52 PM, frd said: Interesting 6 to 10 day outlook. Not a real surprise though. Expand is that precip or temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 WB 12Z ICON is on board for a wet period ahead...what could possibly go wrong 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 4:27 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON is on board for a wet period ahead...what could possibly go wrong Expand How is retirement treating you?. Loving the increase in maps. Please stay retired. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 12z euro has 10” of rain in the next 2 weeks for central MD 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 This has a 10% chance of verification: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 6:15 PM, stormy said: This has a 10% chance of verification: Expand Euro mid range over amped bias kicking in again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 6:56 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Euro mid range over amped bias kicking in again? Expand It has support. 0z GFS-Graphcast had the cutoff solution, euro-Ai, eps, icon, and 12z geps took a step toward it. Gfs has a cutoff also, just a different evolution and focused rain to our north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 There are signals from different directions that we could turn wet from May 3 - May 13. Will it happen?? 30% probability..................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 If this falls apart will there be a write up on what went wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 6:10 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z euro has 10” of rain in the next 2 weeks for central MD Expand On that run we barely see the sun for 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2025 at 10:27 PM, MN Transplant said: On that run we barely see the sun for 10 days. Expand I'll be kayaking down Sligo Creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 On 4/29/2025 at 3:07 PM, Paleocene said: is that precip or temps? Expand Temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 On 4/29/2025 at 6:10 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z euro has 10” of rain in the next 2 weeks for central MD Expand Good. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 A lot of uncertainty associated with the closed low idea and how it plays out. Potentially some significant rain somewhere in the region. The latest ens means- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 It would be genuinely great if some version of that came to pass - we desperately need extended days of good rain across the whole area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 The 12z GFS is moving towards the Euro with the cutoff situation. It is wild to see two lows side by side like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 That looks like the map from "The Day After Tomorrow." 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 On 4/30/2025 at 4:27 PM, MN Transplant said: The 12z GFS is moving towards the Euro with the cutoff situation. It is wild to see two lows side by side like this. Expand If only that happened in the winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 On 4/30/2025 at 4:51 PM, Spartman said: If only that happened in the winter.... Expand It would be 40 degree drizzle for 2 weeks with that setup lol. Winter doesn't have the juice. I like seeing the GFS start cave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 On 4/30/2025 at 1:09 PM, CAPE said: A lot of uncertainty associated with the closed low idea and how it plays out. Potentially some significant rain somewhere in the region. The latest ens means- Expand Maaaan I hope it ain't gonna be just on the same ol' area s/e...other regions need it a little more! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 On 4/30/2025 at 5:25 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Maaaan I hope it ain't gonna be just on the same ol' area s/e...other regions need it a little more! Expand The usual area of lighter precip NW of I95 is present on the 12z GFS. Eastern VA jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 On 4/30/2025 at 5:38 PM, CAPE said: The usual area of lighter precip NW of I95 is present on the 12z GFS. Eastern VA jackpot. Expand I'm done, lol Ain't no way this is random luck repeating all these times. Something in the atmosphere changed or some quirk this year has made some weird uh...block? I'm not satisfied with no explanation for this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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