weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 We are just over a week away from the month of May. The snow shovels and snow blowers are put away, trees are budding and blossoming, flowers are growing, and ACs are being installed. We are entering a season of change and pretty soon we'll all be celebrating the three H's. May also begins the increasing risk for thunderstorms as we introduce greater theta-e air into the region with cold fronts making their way through at times. Looking ahead to the first week of May, it looks like April closes on an unseasonably warm note with strong ridging at 500mb coupled with a cold front approaching at the surface helping to aid in unseasonably warm llvl air with a strong southwesterly flow. While there are subtle hints at some weak troughing across the Northeast to begin the first week of May, independent on any small-scale phenomena, we should begin the month above-average with respect to climo with potential for some over the top warmth given the above-average height anomalies extending well into central Canada. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Hopefully no cutoffs for weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Mayorch looks furnaced 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Wednesday at 11:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:33 AM Ensembles show cutoff potential for early May, leaning towards 2nd week. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of April, which was a mixed bag that's ending much warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM Yeah definitely some cutoff potential after May 2-3 or so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:46 PM funny ... posted that exact same sentiment re the first little while of May over in that April thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Wednesday at 04:51 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 04:51 PM 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely some cutoff potential after May 2-3 or so. meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Wednesday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:24 PM What a furnace in early Mayorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 02:21 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:21 AM 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a furnace in early Mayorch first few days look really warm then we cool to cold for this time of year.. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Friday at 02:37 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:37 AM On 4/23/2025 at 10:21 PM, ineedsnow said: first few days look really warm then we cool to cold for this time of year.. First half of May looks back and forth wrt temps. Some AN days and some BN days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 06:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:39 PM Solid model agreement over the extended on this 12z run ... Hey, ... maybe we can get one of those entertaining fights between Kevin and Kdxken going ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Solid model agreement over the extended on this 12z run ... Hey, ... maybe we can get one of those entertaining fights between Kevin and Kdxken going ! ACATT will ride the GFS everyday all day , even when it disagrees with its own ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: ACATT will ride the GFS everyday all day , even when it disagrees with its own ens Will you ride the NBM bus again for this? 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago gfs ruins May 4th-10th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago Yeah GFS has been quite consistent with that. I guess that period is either going to really suck or be quite warm given how close the warmth is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Euro has sfc door potential too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago On 4/23/2025 at 7:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What a furnace in early Mayorch ya looks awesome now.. heat and dews.. oh wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Thankfully ... the models are bum pounding another Saturday just like everyone wants - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted just now Share Posted just now I think Saturday might be ok here. Gonna be a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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