May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[weatherwiz]

We are just over a week away from the month of May. The snow shovels and snow blowers are put away, trees are budding and blossoming, flowers are growing, and ACs are being installed. We are entering a season of change and pretty soon we'll all be celebrating the three H's. May also begins the increasing risk for thunderstorms as we introduce greater theta-e air into the region with cold fronts making their way through at times. 

Looking ahead to the first week of May, it looks like April closes on an unseasonably warm note with strong ridging at 500mb coupled with a cold front approaching at the surface helping to aid in unseasonably warm llvl air with a strong southwesterly flow. While there are subtle hints at some weak troughing across the Northeast to begin the first week of May, independent on any small-scale phenomena, we should begin the month above-average with respect to climo with potential for some over the top warmth given the above-average height anomalies extending well into central Canada. 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully no cutoffs for weeks

[Damage In Tolland]

Mayorch looks furnaced 

[SnoSki14]

Ensembles show cutoff potential for early May, leaning towards 2nd week. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of April, which was a mixed bag that's ending much warmer. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah definitely some cutoff potential after May 2-3 or so.