April Discobs 2025

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

What the 18z giveth, the 0z taketh away.

WW loves to hug the most favorable model, even when its the NAM lol. Doesn't usually work out too well.

[kgottwald]

When trying to decide whether I need to bring my umbrella today, I check the NWS forecast for Fairfax County inside the beltway: "Scattered showers after 2 p.m." Then I check the AFD: "Some shower activity is likely to develop today, particularly west of U.S. 15 where scattered showers are in the forecast. . . . High-resolution models bring scattered showers toward the I-95 corridor just after sundown."

I didn't know where the heck US 15 is (why can't they use placenames instead of highways??) so I check the map and see it's way out past Leesburg! So the forecast and the discussion are mutually contradictory. I'll chance leaving the umbrella at home, because when I haul that thing around all day and not a drop of rain falls, I feel like I've been made a fool of.

[BlizzardNole]

My P&C has a tenth to a quarter inch, so using the Central MD Rainfall Formula -- taking the low end of the range and divide in half -- I should get 0.05

[WxUSAF]

12z mesos have showers late morning/early afternoon tomorrow a bit more widespread? Plus the late evening activity today. Hoping for that SE HoCo bullseye shown on 12z hrrr and 3k NAM…