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April Discobs 2025


George BM
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  On 4/22/2025 at 12:41 PM, konksw said:

 I’m honestly not sure what late April is supposed to feel like. While trending warmer, spring has always been super swingy so the averages we arrive at are from half the days feeling like early march and the other half like Memorial Day weekend. 

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True, looking back at my records I have 5 50 degree or greater nights and 5 30 degree or lower nights for this date!

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  On 4/22/2025 at 10:14 PM, WxUSAF said:

1”? Looks more like about 0.2” averages across the LWX zone…

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Yeah. Looks like it went poof faster than a snowstorm 3 days out. I'm sure it will just end up cloudy and windy. Looks dry after that for the rest of April. I wonder when the water restrictions will start. 

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  On 4/22/2025 at 11:43 PM, dailylurker said:

Yeah. Looks like it went poof faster than a snowstorm 3 days out. I'm sure it will just end up cloudy and windy. Looks dry after that for the rest of April. I wonder when the water restrictions will start. 

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Every time there's a big rain in the forecast it gets walked back to practically nothing in the days leading up to it, every time....

What went wrong with our advertised wet pattern? Is it something with the ENSO state? Will it ever properly rain again?

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  On 4/23/2025 at 12:26 AM, JenkinsJinkies said:

What went wrong with our advertised wet pattern? Is it something with the ENSO state? Will it ever properly rain again?

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We are in more of a La Nina pattern right now. This started in May 2024. A good indicator is the ENSO subsurface, when there is below average water at -200m (the thermocline), below Nino 3/3.4, that translates to more of a La Nina pattern. Right now the indicator is weakish La Nina, where it's been for 14 months.  The long term Hadley Cell state in the Pacific Ocean is also La Ninaish. 

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  On 4/25/2025 at 2:50 AM, nw baltimore wx said:

What the 18z giveth, the 0z taketh away.

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        Yeah, widespread heavy convection Friday night (as depicted on that one NAM Nest run) just doesn't seem likely, although there could be a few good downpours for some lucky areas.      After that, I'm glad to see some ensemble agreement for a strong trough passage the following weekend, but I don't like seeing the prolonged signal for northwest flow after that.

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