April Discobs 2025

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

What the 18z giveth, the 0z taketh away.

WW loves to hug the most favorable model, even when its the NAM lol. Doesn't usually work out too well.

[kgottwald]

When trying to decide whether I need to bring my umbrella today, I check the NWS forecast for Fairfax County inside the beltway: "Scattered showers after 2 p.m." Then I check the AFD: "Some shower activity is likely to develop today, particularly west of U.S. 15 where scattered showers are in the forecast. . . . High-resolution models bring scattered showers toward the I-95 corridor just after sundown."

I didn't know where the heck US 15 is (why can't they use placenames instead of highways??) so I check the map and see it's way out past Leesburg! So the forecast and the discussion are mutually contradictory. I'll chance leaving the umbrella at home, because when I haul that thing around all day and not a drop of rain falls, I feel like I've been made a fool of.

[BlizzardNole]

My P&C has a tenth to a quarter inch, so using the Central MD Rainfall Formula -- taking the low end of the range and divide in half -- I should get 0.05

[WxUSAF]

12z mesos have showers late morning/early afternoon tomorrow a bit more widespread? Plus the late evening activity today. Hoping for that SE HoCo bullseye shown on 12z hrrr and 3k NAM…

[nw baltimore wx]

I am out on a walk and if I didn’t know better, I would say rain was definitely on the way. Too bad I know better.

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I am out on a walk and if I didn’t know better, I would say rain was definitely on the way. Too bad I know better.

It’s approaching, it’s approaching,…

it went poof 

[dailylurker]

It looks like east of 95 to about the bay is in line for storms if they hold together which they won't lol

[Mrs.J]

20 hours ago, 87storms said:

The weather has been primo the last couple days.

It was. Got stuff to repair a crack in our patio and got that down yesterday. Was going to put sealer on today but with a 24 hr cure time and the clouds today and possible rain I decided to wait. 

[Weather Will]

Rain...

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Rain...

Will hit a brick wall somewhere near Frederick.

[WxUSAF]

I’m gonna get 0.00” aren’t I?

[Weather Will]

Heavy shower at the moment.  Enough to wash the pollen away!

[Mrs.J]

Nice solid downpour currently. 

[Mrs.J]

18 hours ago, kgottwald said:

When trying to decide whether I need to bring my umbrella today, I check the NWS forecast for Fairfax County inside the beltway: "Scattered showers after 2 p.m." Then I check the AFD: "Some shower activity is likely to develop today, particularly west of U.S. 15 where scattered showers are in the forecast. . . . High-resolution models bring scattered showers toward the I-95 corridor just after sundown."

I didn't know where the heck US 15 is (why can't they use placenames instead of highways??) so I check the map and see it's way out past Leesburg! So the forecast and the discussion are mutually contradictory. I'll chance leaving the umbrella at home, because when I haul that thing around all day and not a drop of rain falls, I feel like I've been made a fool of.

US 15 Runs from the VA/NC border through Warrenton up through Leesburg and Frederick MD and into PA into Harrisburg and beyond I believe. It is the way I get into VA from Frederick. And I take it up to take my youngest to college in PA. 

So the line that just went through Frederick started just west of US 15 and is now headed towards the I95 corridor.

[Mrs.J]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Will hit a brick wall somewhere near Frederick.

I thought it would but just picked up a nice .40” here just SW of downtown Frederick. Just got some thunder and lightning also.