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April Discobs 2025


George BM
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few changes with this update. An MCS tracking through
Pennsylvania has held its own as it rides the MD/PA border
approaching Hagerstown. CAM guidance has been pretty awful
handling this feature, but with a tongue of good DCAPE out ahead
of it, there is a chance that this MCS could make it to our
area or at the very least produce some showers. Added some
15-20% chance of showers/thunderstorms for portions of SE PA,
northern DE, and southern NJ. Timing this out, the MCS would get
into our SE zones just after 11 PM and into NJ around midnight.
Also seeing some convective cells in far northern NJ, but these
should move out shortly. SPC added the area ahead of the MCS
into a Marginal Risk.
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1 minute ago, WVclimo said:

Getting rocked here with frequent lightning and winds gusting over 50 mph.  Lost power briefly.

Mount Holly mentioned this area a little while ago. Stated modeling did not do a good job with this feature. Appears to be holding together on its way East. 

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