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April Discobs 2025


George BM
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1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Haven’t been following the forecasts lately. I got 0.76” last night. Was that within forecast range?

That matches what the short range models were showing this time yesterday. About 0.75 - 1.25 forecast thru the dc/balt metro areas.  I got an inch, pretty satisfied with that.

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Looking at a linear regression of average daily high temperatures in the month of March at the District, we can see they have risen by nearly 8F since the late 19th century. If this rate of warming were to continue through the 21st century, March high temperatures would be predicted to reach near 62F. We see a couple of instances where positive anomalies from the linear regression predicted value were as high as 13F (1921 & 1945), suggesting very warm Marches could see average high temperatures in excess of 70F by the latter part of the 21st century in the District. One thing to note is each of the last six values have exceeded the values predicted by the regression, which suggests the possibility of an acceleration of warming relative to the long-term warming trend.

CiF8A7u.png

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3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking at a linear regression of average daily high temperatures in the month of March at the District, we can see they have risen by nearly 8F since the late 19th century. If this rate of warming were to continue through the 21st century, March high temperatures would be predicted to reach near 62F. We see a couple of instances where positive anomalies from the linear regression predicted value were as high as 13F (1921 & 1945), suggesting very warm Marches could see average high temperatures in excess of 70F by the latter part of the 21st century in the District. One thing to note is each of the last six values have exceeded the values predicted by the regression, which suggests the possibility of an acceleration of warming relative to the long-term warming trend.

CiF8A7u.png

The LOESS curve helps us to spot deviations from the linear trend. In general, excursions have been relatively limited from the linear trend. Just some slight wiggles. Of note, the LOESS curve does predict lower temperatures in the 19th century and higher recent temperatures suggesting as much as 10F or more of warming. But the later period could be simply a positive wiggle or suggestive of non-linear behavior.

oAgTRhS.png

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While not as impressive as other locations, the mean daily range of 21.1F was good for 13th highest on record. It was the largest mean diurnal range observed in the month of March in the District since 1986.

 

1968 23.7
1923 23.1
1945 22.7
1907 22.6
1921 22.4
1918 22.0
1964 22.0
1966 22.0
1986 21.7
1920 21.6
1910 21.3
1938 21.2
2025 21.1
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29 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hoping Saturday’s threat of rain isn’t an all day thing and is more spotty in nature. Hershey Park opening day. We can dodge showers and cooler temps is a plus, maybe the crowds won’t be as bad. An all day rain is a no go

Some of my favorite memories as a kid were spotty shower cool April days at King's Island (Cincinnati) - a fraction of the people and could just walk onto the best coasters/rides over and over again.  Hoping that is the set-up for you on Saturday...

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2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Some of my favorite memories as a kid were spotty shower cool April days at King's Island (Cincinnati) - a fraction of the people and could just walk onto the best coasters/rides over and over again.  Hoping that is the set-up for you on Saturday...

Our favorite days to go is cloudy, cool, with a chance of spotty showers, so I hope that’s the case! 

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Some of my favorite memories as a kid were spotty shower cool April days at King's Island (Cincinnati) - a fraction of the people and could just walk onto the best coasters/rides over and over again.  Hoping that is the set-up for you on Saturday...

Rode my first roller coaster there - The Beast. My dad had some friends in Cincy that we visited
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One of the best wooden coaster ever. May still be the best. I was 9 when it opened - a big fun deal locally. 

It was awesome. I’ve never been great with heights (prefer to bike uphill than downhill), but I do like occasional roller coasters. I wasn’t ready for the vortex, though lol. Went to Hershey park last year…they’ve got a few good ones, too.
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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok, really need some rain tomorrow and Friday because my son’s high school baseball team is out of pitchers and has a game against the best team in the county Friday afternoon :arrowhead:

I’ll pray for your rainy Thursday/Friday if you can grant me a semi dry Saturday :D 

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