April Banter 2025

[George BM]

May 4 2025 2:00AM EDT

A dangerous predawn is on tap for the region.

Supercells associated with an extremely violent and catastrophic tornado outbreak that has been going on across the southern US over the past 12 hours or so will continue to congeal into an intense QLCS line and blast through our region over the next couple hours. These storms will bring the threat of multiple tornadoes (some strong), destructive hurricane-force wind gusts and large hail.

QLCS is currently moving through into West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. There are still supercells embedded within the line and some just out ahead of the line producing significant tornadoes. In the region as of 2am temps have risen into the upper 70sF with dewpoints getting into the 70s as a plume of unseasonably warm/moist air moves in with a powerful 80+kt LLJ. The strong LLJ and strong air pressure gradient ahead of the front will help winds gust into the 40 to 55mph range. A Wind Advisory is in place to account for this. The main story by far, obviously, will be the storms that will race across the region over the next couple of hours.

Ahead of the line, temps may rise up to 80F with lower 70s dewpoints (record breaking for this time of night during this time of year). Coupled with steep MLLRs aloft (7.5-8C/km) and -11 to -12C 500mb temps, CAPE will eclipse 3,000 J/kg. Low-level shear will be very strong (500-700+ m2/s2 effective SRH) with effective bulk wind shear of 80+kts. This line will form NE moving bowing segments that (because of high DCAPE of 1200-1400+ J/kg) will contain swaths of high-end severe winds with gusts of 75-100mph leading to extensive to extreme wind damage. With the strong to extreme LL shear a couple QLCS tornadoes look likely. A strong tornado or two is possible with embedded supercells. These storms will be along the I-81 corridor around 3am moving through the Greater Washington/Baltimore metros in the 4am and 5am hours exiting east of the Bay by the 6am hour.

Once storms move out winds will shift to the WNW with 30+ mph wind gusts behind the cold front with temps rebounding into the low 70s w/ much lower humidity after falling into the low 60s behind the storms. A great day for the cleanup process to begin.

[Jebman]

This is very good, GeorgeBM! You really need to go to meteorological school and become a real Met, and get RED TAGGED up in here!

You have definitely got the potential!

 

Meanwhile in other news, Mammoth Mtn is getting smashed by steady snows and strong winds!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

It's getting that look about it! Check out that 3 foot deep drift in front of the stairs by the big Mammoth! Its piling up!

Mammoth got 10 inches of freshies last night, 6 more today and will pile up more pow tonight!

[DownpourDave]

Not that it matters at all at this point but the PDO is now positive albeit barely

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, DownpourDave said:

Not that it matters at all at this point but the PDO is now positive albeit barely

Matters more as something to watch for next season and beyond, right? To see if we're finally out of the negative cycle?(I sure do hope we are...to my layman eyes, I find it interesting that the first season it's not raging negative but just weekly so, we have a winter that, while still not as snowy as we would've liked, actually stayed cold throughout...

[Jebman]

Extreme NE AR and western TN are in play for some of the greatest generational rain tallies seen in the past 100 years over the next 5 days, as well as severe weather, tornadoes, very large damaging hail and high wind gusts. You guys might want to start play by plays. I know this is the mid Atlantic sub but their sub is fast asleep, I suspect many of those folks are working extremely hard to get ready for this atrocious weather event.

Category 5 for severe https://www.weather.gov/meg/

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

-Severe weather and very heavy rainfall are expected this afternoon
through Saturday.

-Five day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range
along and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk.
Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible.

-A High Risk of severe weather today, a Slight Risk is in effect
 Thursday,Friday and Saturday.

-A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect today, Friday
 and Saturday with a High Risk on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A dangerous weather pattern will unravel this afternoon as an upper
level low and attendant cold front will impinge on the area. As the
system inches closer, the pressure gradient will tighten and bring
strong sustained and gusty wind conditions. A Wind Advisory will go
into effect at 7 AM this morning due to these conditions. The
highest winds will be found across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee with gusts up to 50 mph possible.
Elsewhere, gusts around 40 mph and sustained winds between 20-30 mph
are expected.

Surface analysis as of 3 AM shows a warm front lifting north across
the Memphis metro. Surface observations behind the boundary show
dewpoints entering the 60s. This moisture will provide ample
instability combined with lift from the approaching cold front and a
70 kt LLJ; a High Risk for severe weather is in store for portions
of the Mid-South today. The upgrade in risk is tornado driven as SRH
values exceed 200 m2/s2 with curved and elongated hodographs. The
CAMs have also been more in favor of discrete cell development, and
given this prime environment, these cells could easily turn
supercellular and produce strong tornadoes. Discrete cell
development will be approaching from the west as early as 3 PM this
afternoon.

Strong tornadoes are not the only concern, lapse rates
are between 7-8C/km with almost 3,000 MUCAPE to work with,
significant hail is not out of the question; especially in any
supercells. The discrete cells eventually will congeal into a line
as the cold frontal boundary is anticipated to stall practically
along the I-4O corridor late tonight which will shift to a damaging
wind threat of 70+ mph gusts. Once the storm mode is more linear,
embedded supercells within the line could still produce a tornado.
The most likely timing for the severe weather is 3 PM- 12 AM as the
loss of daytime heating and rain cooled surfaces should help
stabilize the environment. It is so important to have multiple
ways to receive warnings especially as some of these tornadoes
could be strong and long tracked. All hazards could occur after
sunset, which is the most deadly time.

As mentioned above, the stalled frontal boundary will linger with at
least slight chances of severe weather through Saturday.
Instability to the south of the front is still favorable of a
strong to severe thunderstorm. As this front remains parked, it
will provide enough lift and bursts of energy to need to be
monitored for a few storms with all hazards at play. This pattern
will continue until the front clears the area. Saturday, the
severe weather threat could increase slightly across north
Mississippi as the front begins to move over a not as saturated
area.

While we continue to monitor the severe weather potential, a
historical rainfall event will commence. Generational flash, river,
and areal flooding are all possible. Maxed out precipitable water
values for four convective days, training storms extremely
likely, and any convective development increasing localized
amounts has QPF values forecast to be in the 10-15 inch range. The
area likely to see such high amounts will be along and north of
I-40. Considerable flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas,
is expected. Never drive through flooded waters, and flooded
roadways are significantly more difficult to see at night. The
axis of heavy rainfall could still very easily shift so be sure to
continue to monitor the forecast.

While our current forecast could break several rainfall records
across the area, it is a bit more optimistic for it to be more
spread out over four days, however, the culmination will put a
strain on the ground`s ability to absorb. At some point, soils will
become supersaturated and leave no option but to reject all the
additional rain as runoff. Flash flooding will emerge as a primary
concern with this extremely active pattern. In addition, all of this
rainfall will make tree limbs very weak and easily breakable. It is
best to not only prepare for flooding, but power outages as well.
Moderate Risks and a High Risk of excessive rainfall are in effect
for portions of the Mid-South each day through the event.

[Jebman]

Tornado outbreaks and flood warnings are popping up all over that region. Heavy training rains will continue into Saturday, provoking severe, even catastrophic floods.

[frd]

Ryan Maue

 

@RyanMaue

·

27m

  26 concurrent tornado warnings  as major outbreak escalates

[Chris78]

Unfortunately all the issues with the Os rotation is clearly evident the first time through. Everyone in world sees it.

Elias dosn't seem willing to trade from an area of strength ( position players) to fix their weakness. ( pitching). Until Cowser broke his thumb they were probably going to have to send down Krstadt which is just nuts.

The last 8 months or so has been mind boggling with Elias's trades and FA signing.

They've already passed the point of being able to extend Gunner. Seeing KC jumping on extending Witt early and then Boston ponying up the prospects and then signing Crochett long term is really infuriating to me.

Elias certainly is a great talent evaluater to draft and develop the position players they have but his trade deadline last year was a disaster.( other than Eflin) 

It's been downhill since winning the division 2 years ago.

As currently constructed they seem to be an 80 - 84 win team. 

I know Financials are a different animal in the NFL but look at the Commanders. There going for it while JD5 is on a rookie deal. Your paying Gunner not much more than League minimum to put up mvp numbers but you can't afford a front line pitcher? Give me a break. I thought we were passed the point of signing guys like Kyle Gibson. Apparently not.

 

[TowsonTownT]

13 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Unfortunately all the issues with the Os rotation is clearly evident the first time through. Everyone in world sees it.

Elias dosn't seem willing to trade from an area of strength ( position players) to fix their weakness. ( pitching). Until Cowser broke his thumb they were probably going to have to send down Krstadt which is just nuts.

The last 8 months or so has been mind boggling with Elias's trades and FA signing.

They've already passed the point of being able to extend Gunner. Seeing KC jumping on extending Witt early and then Boston ponying up the prospects and then signing Crochett long term is really infuriating to me.

Elias certainly is a great talent evaluater to draft and develop the position players they have but his trade deadline last year was a disaster.( other than Eflin) 

It's been downhill since winning the division 2 years ago.

As currently constructed they seem to be an 80 - 84 win team. 

I know Financials are a different animal in the NFL but look at the Commanders. There going for it while JD5 is on a rookie deal. Your paying Gunner not much more than League minimum to put up mvp numbers but you can't afford a front line pitcher? Give me a break. I thought we were passed the point of signing guys like Kyle Gibson. Apparently not.

 

Don't forget that Chris Davis still has the 5th highest salary on the team this year at 9.16 Million...

[Chris78]

Glad to see Morton finally get through an inning without giving up runs 

[MillvilleWx]

Just got off of night shifts this morning and I can say this past 5-7 nights were complete hell in the forecasting world. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I would be issuing 2 High Risks and 4 Moderate Risks in a 4 days span without a single tropical cyclone in the mix. 
 

My ERD’s (Excessive Rainfall Discussions) were easily 2000+ words in length each night. Just absolutely insane. I’m done till next Tuesday, but I’ll remember that set forever. 

[Jebman]

Hope the Mid Atlantic gets plenty of rain, but not flooding or severe weather. You guys need some rain. I just don't want  MillvilleWx to have to write up another 2000-word ERD for Northern Virginia or the District. All that urban concrete would be a total catastrophe. The runoff would be INTER-Generational.