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2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation


40/70 Benchmark
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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CANSIPS did a good job last year.

At least the CANSIPS shows the expected variability of temps/weather. I’ve found the CFS is always too warm, even when it’s correct on it being warm, and it doesn’t show much below average anomalies. Even in a climate where we expect places to be warmer, there is usually places that end up cooler as well. The CANSIPS seems to illustrate that premise.

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17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Blend that last 7 winters + some factor of warmer

done

Somewhere in there is a bit of irony when considering the average amount of time you put into the most quotidian of responses on this forum.

Anyway, perhaps there is a bit of sarcasm at play, but I am of the option that the larger scale Pacific pattern is in a state of flux, so I'm not at all confident its gong to be very warm relative to the latest 30 year climo period.

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