2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

Consensus is currently for cool-neutral ENSO conditions, but I'm thinking warm neutral or perhaps even weak El Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 2/27/2025 at 9:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We were due for one like that....had been since 2003-2004. We were due for a variety of different poison pills. We got the "La Nino" a la 1972-1973 last year.....1950s style bottomed-out RNA the previous year, death star vortex over AK and the arctic in 2019-2020. That about covers it-

The complete Kama Sutra on how to sodemize the region from every angle and position imaginable has been written.

 

On 2/27/2025 at 9:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2020-2021 and 2021-2022 were regional respites, however, they were also opportunities for mother nature to spend time with me alone and "groom me" for the resumption of the larger scale regional abuse in 2022-2023.

 

On 2/27/2025 at 10:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be shocked if the entire region isn't safely above average in snowfall for 2025-2026...obviously check back late next fall, but that is my prelimnary hunch.

 

On 2/27/2025 at 10:53 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The January PDO value was barely the highest value since Jan 2023, but you have to go back to August 2021 to find a value significantly higher.....the last time it was this high for a sustained stetch was the near the end of 2020.

 

On 2/27/2025 at 11:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tell me we aren't in a state of Pacific multidecadal flux without telling me. February 2000, which was one of my primary analog seasons, and the 2000-2001 La nina (Weak Modoki, like this year) have something in common....they represented the transition from a -PDO period to positive. Difference is that was temporary, given the that the flip to multidecadal cold phase had just taken place in the late 90s (after mega 1997 el Nino). This is near the end of the multidecadal cold phase...see late 1970s.

 

On 2/27/2025 at 11:24 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

raindance metioned that when the PDO is inconflict with region 1.2 (negative PDO/warmer 1.2 given west-based, Modoki Nina), which was also the case in 2000-2001, the PDO is highly likely to continue to reverse throughout the following year, which it did back then. This year, we also have that conflict in that the PDO is negative and La Nina is west-based with warmer values in region 1.2.

+PDO incoming-

 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Consensus is currently for cool-neutral ENSO conditions, but I'm thinking warm neutral or perhaps even weak El Nino.

Fwiw, Cfs2 is leaning weak Niño now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, Cfs2 is leaning weak Niño now.

I think the CFS and CANSIPS did best last winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

BTW, I referenced the parallel between Feb 2000 and this past Feb by way to the storngly positive PNA (by calculation), there was also a parallel during the month of March, as the SSW was similar both in terms of evolution and timing. This was my primary SSW analog.

Given that the QBO analog of 2020-2021 took place near solar minimum, the early January 2021 SSW  is of least relevance as a viable analog occurrence this season. However, the February 2023 SSW, which is a better solar analog, lends more support to a later season potential polar vortex disruption along the lines of March 1971 and 2000. This notion is supported by research on high solar, westerly QBO seasons, which lends credence to the late winter/early spring displacement scenario.

 

 

 

 

The research clearly implies that a displacement of the PV triggered by a SSW beyond mid month is a distinct possibility based on the history of westerly QBO seasons that have occurred near solar max, and this is precisely what took place. Note the displacement of the PV in concert with the warming polar stratosphere that had already begun prior to mid month.

 

The event continued to evolve until a reversal of the zonal winds occurred around March 20th, as suggested by the analogs.

 

 

The research also suggested that any cold resulting from the PV disruption would be insufficient and/or too late to bias the monthly mean negative and that has also proven correct.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I expect more guidance to lean in the direction of the CFS as we progress through the spring and into the summer/fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1999-2000 was one of my stronger winter analogs and it offered plenty of value in hindisight, but its a good example of why seasonal forecasting is so difficult. One needs to detemrine not only which seasons offer value and what said value is, but what the main driver(s) will be during the ensuing winter season. In this case, the EPO was the primary driver and in played an instrumental role in why this season was signfiicantly colder than '99-'00. This is is primary reason why I was too warm this past season.

La Nina behaved similarly (Modoki), albeit weaker (expected) and the polar domain evolved in a like manner, which was foreshadowed well by the westerly QBO high solar research.

[weatherwiz]

Great thread, hoping to get more involved with the seasonal forecasting this year. I did last year but 2025 was pretty wild. Part of the problem is I get too much into my head. Anyways, I've gone back to the drawing board when it comes to creating ENSO composites. I've read made my lists of EL Nino, La Nina, and ENSO neutral using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI, however, I am not sure I want to go ahead and create a list breaking down by strength. 

Through the journeys and research and studies, there is a whole world of accepted definitions when it comes to ENSO and classifications beyond the typical ONI and SSTA thresholds we're all familiar with. When digging into strength classification I would like to incorporate more of the SOI and MEI into the classifications. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Great thread, hoping to get more involved with the seasonal forecasting this year. I did last year but 2025 was pretty wild. Part of the problem is I get too much into my head. Anyways, I've gone back to the drawing board when it comes to creating ENSO composites. I've read made my lists of EL Nino, La Nina, and ENSO neutral using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI, however, I am not sure I want to go ahead and create a list breaking down by strength. 

Through the journeys and research and studies, there is a whole world of accepted definitions when it comes to ENSO and classifications beyond the typical ONI and SSTA thresholds we're all familiar with. When digging into strength classification I would like to incorporate more of the SOI and MEI into the classifications. 

I consider ONI, MEI and RONI.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I consider ONI, MEI and RONI.

I find the ENS-ONI intriguing, though I think its more designed to highlight ENSO events pre-1950. But it wasn't until I came across the ENS-ONI that I realized there are a ton of different methods and metrics to define ENSO events. Maybe this is good...maybe this is bad but I think this helps us to "think about the box". 

I debate though how much I want to involve ENSO events pre-1950. I don't think that data should be discounted, however, when creating composites and assessing it must be understood this data is all re-constructed and there are caveats. While it does seem like there has been a huge change in how ENSO events behave lately its very difficult to make this assertion because data coverage/collection is worlds better now...but even with this there could be inconsistencies, especially with satellite data/measurements. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I find the ENS-ONI intriguing, though I think its more designed to highlight ENSO events pre-1950. But it wasn't until I came across the ENS-ONI that I realized there are a ton of different methods and metrics to define ENSO events. Maybe this is good...maybe this is bad but I think this helps us to "think about the box". 

I debate though how much I want to involve ENSO events pre-1950. I don't think that data should be discounted, however, when creating composites and assessing it must be understood this data is all re-constructed and there are caveats. While it does seem like there has been a huge change in how ENSO events behave lately its very difficult to make this assertion because data coverage/collection is worlds better now...but even with this there could be inconsistencies, especially with satellite data/measurements. 

The primary issue I have seen with your work is that you tend to get lost in the trees and lose sight of the forest, so to speak.......the data is overwhelming as it is for me going back to 1950, nonethless 1870 or whatever the hell you do. There is a paradox that exisits in that on the one hand, we have such a grave dearth of data in terms of sample size, but on the other hand, there is data saturation with respect to the sample that we do work with. Its important to set boundaries so you don't endure "paralysis by analysis" and spend more time sorting data than you actually do forecasting. I have noticed that you tend to exhaust yourself with ENSO composites, which is something that I have moved away from because if anything, ENSO is growing less preavlent as a seasonal driver. ENSO is the foundation of the seasonal house, metaphircally speaking....we have a finite amount of time to complete this seasonal work and if you spend 2 months polishing the foundation, you're going to build an inferior house.

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The primary issue I have seen with your work is that you tend to get lost in the trees and lose sight of the forest, so to speak.......the data is overwhelming as it is for me going back to 1950, nonethless 1870 or whatever the hell you do. There is a paradox that exisits in that on the one hand, we have such a grave dearth of data in terms of sample size, but on the other hand, there is data saturation with respect to the sample that we do work with. Its important to set boundaries so you don't endure "paralysis by analysis" and spend more time sorting data than you actually do forecasting. I have noticed that you tend to exhaust yourself with ENSO composites, which is something that I have moved away from because if anything, ENSO is growing less preavlent as a seasonal driver. ENSO is the foundation of the seasonal house, metaphircally speaking....we have a finite amount of time to complete this seasonal work and if you spend 2 months polishing the foundation, you're going to build an inferior house.

I couldn't agree more with this post. I exhaust myself big time with composites and I need to move away from that because otherwise I am never going to get to the level I want just because I don't have the time to really do so. I only really do that to develop a fundamental background in understanding but it is extremely, extremely time consuming. But I think over the years I've developed enough knowledge/understanding that I don't need to do this anymore but If I knew how to program/code this could be done in a way more productive manner. 

But I try too much to break things down so much and try to get as close to a linear correlation as possible which is stupid because when it comes down to it, there really is no or are no linear correlations. And this is what makes the science so difficult. As humans, we are equip to understand/handle linear correlations pretty easily, but getting outside of linear correlations and we struggle...its a skill that can be taught but the path is difficult. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I couldn't agree more with this post. I exhaust myself big time with composites and I need to move away from that because otherwise I am never going to get to the level I want just because I don't have the time to really do so. I only really do that to develop a fundamental background in understanding but it is extremely, extremely time consuming. But I think over the years I've developed enough knowledge/understanding that I don't need to do this anymore but If I knew how to program/code this could be done in a way more productive manner. 

But I try too much to break things down so much and try to get as close to a linear correlation as possible which is stupid because when it comes down to it, there really is no or are no linear correlations. And this is what makes the science so difficult. As humans, we are equip to understand/handle linear correlations pretty easily, but getting outside of linear correlations and we struggle...its a skill that can be taught but the path is difficult. 

Exactly.....if you go back and look at my Outlooks from like 2021 and beyond, 70% of the pieces was breaking down ENSO composites....hell, up until 2020, I used to break down every element of the atmosphere from scratch and explain it from the bottom up, but it there was value in doing it because it helped me to learn...much lke writing research papers in school. You and I have many Outlook efforts under out belt, we don't need to do that anymore.

One thing I have found helpful is doing the basic explanations on a serparte post and hyperlinking it in the body of the outlook....I refer them as "addendums".

[dendrite]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I consider RONI.

 

[mitchnick]

April Cansips just posted. Looks like a late blossoming weak Niño.  Here's the link to December.  It warms after December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8
 

Also, fwiw, lots of ridging to the north all winter with BN temps thru winter as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

April Cansips just posted. Looks like a late blossoming weak Niño.  Here's the link to December.  It warms after December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8
 

Also, fwiw, lots of ridging to the north all winter with BN temps thru winter as well.

Looks more consistent with my early expectation...expect the consensus to roll into this look.

[40/70 Benchmark]

CANSIPS was by far the best seasomal guidance for this past winter BTW....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks similar, but I think it looks better ITVO AK....hopefully its much better for snowfall in SNE, or I'd absolutely lose it.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That look would defintely offer some colder outbreaks than we had this past year.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This would include some nasty arctic outbreaks....

 

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[40/70 Benchmark]

Reminds me a bit of 2010-2011.....with less NAO and perhaps a better PNA.

[MJO812]

Pdo  +0.5

[Damage In Tolland]

Mild and wet . BN snowfall