April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[nycwinter]

kinda humid today do not like the way it feels..

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC  Easter Snow

 

April, 3 1915 : 10 inches of snow - largest of the season

Do you mean Easter proper?  I do remember having at least a foot of snow on one or two Easters (Union County NJ).  I even have a picture of at least one of them with Easter baskets in the snow.  (Of course some Easter's do occur earlier).

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's raining so hard here it could be a damn monsoon!!

Whomever said it wasn't going to rain were very obviously wrong.

I trust the forecasts put out by our local news stations much more than any individual model, because the news station forecasts tend to be right.  Rain for the next 4 days, not all the time, but for a good percentage of the time.  

Experiencing a deluge right now!

I just heard thunder too!

These short term precipitation models are sometimes as unreliable as the long term models...

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

kinda humid today do not like the way it feels..

wait til June

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

At Jones Beady currently, dense fog and a brutal onshore wind. The ocean is a beautiful turquoise, as it often is the time of year with the water still so cold.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Or maybe there wasn't that many years on record yet so "normals" weren't quite figured out?  Many places didn't even have stations yet.  

The Philadelphia "normal" was based on the mean of 44 years. We had plenty of data then.

[bluewave]

Mid to upper 70s in parts of NJ where the sun is out. 

[Feen]

does anyone have the euro AI snow map?

[SACRUS]

 

72 (from 73) with sun poking through.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's raining so hard here it could be a damn monsoon!!

Whomever said it wasn't going to rain were very obviously wrong.

I trust the forecasts put out by our local news stations much more than any individual model, because the news station forecasts tend to be right.  Rain for the next 4 days, not all the time, but for a good percentage of the time.  

Experiencing a deluge right now!

I just heard thunder too!

Hopefully, January turns out to be the driest month of 2025 as we continue to see increased rain chances going forward in April.
 

 

[steve392]

When the hell did it get warm out today?  Just saw its 70 degrees in Mahwah felt like it was just 48 out.

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, January turns out to be the driest month of 2025 as we continue to see increased rain chances going forward in April.
 

 

looks like lots of flooding.

I'd rather have April 2002

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our dry months these days have mostly been the result of record 500mb ridges getting stuck in place like we saw in SEP, OCT, and JAN. But as soon as the blocks fade the rains return. In the old days the drier patterns were more a result of a cooler atmosphere holding less moisture. Now the atmospheric moisture is at record levels with serious flooding occurring in many locations like to our SW recently as the fast Pacific Jet encounters the Southeast Ridge. 

where do the record 500mb ridges come from? how accurately can we predict them in advance, Chris?

 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Feen said:

does anyone have the euro AI snow map?

It has some snow for areas mostly N of 80 on 4/8 in the map below; it also has some more snow on 4/12 for areas N of 84 and then even more on 4/18 for the Catskills/Berkshires and north.  Assuming you want the first one that gives you a bit of snow.  

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will remain warm, but showers and perhaps a thundershower are possible as a cold front moves through the region.

It will turn cooler on Saturday and then milder again on Sunday. Showers are possible during the weekend.The first half of next week could feature below normal temperatures.

Two big stories will likely dominate the U.S. weather this week. First, a major to historic rainfall event is likely to affect parts of the Tennessee Valley tomorrow through Sunday. Excessive rainfall is likely in parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee. Second, unseasonable heat is likely in parts of the Southeast. Tampa could experience its earlest four-day heatwave on record during April 2-5. The existing record is April 26-29, 1991.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +26.82 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.527 today.

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

where do the record 500mb ridges come from? how accurately can we predict them in advance, Chris?

 

As the atmosphere continues to warm, the 500mb heights have been increasing to record levels. So it leads to weather patterns getting stuck in place over extended periods of time. The trough areas have been shrinking also so we don’t see the really deep troughs like we used to get which were very cold. Even though we had impressive -EPO +PNA -AO blocking this past winter, the cold never was able to approach levels we saw during past winters with similar teleconnections.

 

[psv88]

64 today. 

[Sundog]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As the atmosphere continues to warm, the 500mb heights have been increasing to record levels. So it leads to weather patterns getting stuck in place over extended periods of time. The trough areas have been shrinking also so we don’t see the really deep troughs like we used to get which were very cold. Even though we had impressive -EPO +PNA -AO blocking this past winter, the cold never was able to approach levels we saw during past winters with similar teleconnections.

 

 

Must be all that UHI at 500mb!

Haha

People forget that all levels of the troposphere are rapidly warming.

Hard to blame the airport tarmac when the record heating is also happening at 850mb, 500mb, etc. 

[weathermedic]

Temp actually at the high for today right now at 72 degrees here.

[Stormlover74]

Still 71 and muggy

Dews in the mid 60s

[SRRTA22]

74/63 in Jersey City

[Picard]

Christ, this is almost like a summer night.
Temp 67, DP 63.  Looks like temps are still in the mid 70s to the south.
It's a good cure for dry skin.

[jm1220]

On 4/2/2025 at 8:14 AM, jm1220 said:

Here we get to 70 if we have a westerly flow. South all day won’t do it. That’s 50s on the barrier islands and maybe mid 60s where I am. 

About right. 

[MANDA]

Pretty warm for 10 p.m. on April 3rd. with dp's in the mid to some upper 60's.

A bit much honestly. 

 

[STORMANLI]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Pretty warm for 10 p.m. on April 3rd. with dp's in the mid to some upper 60's.

A bit much honestly. 

 

Agreed.  57/55 here now.

[psv88]

59/57

[snowman19]

After all the SSWE hype the end of February and throughout March, the mid-March event failed to couple, as was the case with every other stratospheric wave reflection and stretching event that has occurred since November. The stratosphere and troposphere have remained totally uncoupled
 

[Brian5671]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After all the SSWE hype the end of February and throughout March, the mid-March event failed to couple, as was the case with every other stratospheric wave reflection and stretching event that has occurred since November. The stratosphere and troposphere have remained totally uncoupled
 

The SSWE thing is overhyped in general-I feel it works about 25% of the time for our part of the world

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The SSWE thing is overhyped in general-I feel it works about 25% of the time for our part of the world

I think it’s more like 10%. Tends to dump cold into Eurasia. Seems like grasping for straws. 

[Dark Star]

22 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC  Easter Snow

 

April, 3 1915 : 10 inches of snow - largest of the season

I found an article where it said New York City received about 10" of snow in Central Park on April 07, 1982, nearby suburbs up to 20".  These photos were from April 07, 1982 in my backyard in Union Township.  Judging by the top of the garbage can, we had at least 12", probably more.  Easter was on April 11, 1982.