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April 2025 Discussion/Obs


Rjay
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Today was another warm day before the sea breeze pushed in. Temperatures rose into the 70s across much of the area.

The warm weather will continue through the week. It will turn somewhat cooler but remain mild during the weekend. A moderate rainfall is possible during the weekend. Sunday will also be the coolest day with readings topping out in the lower and middle 60s.

Temperatures will rebound into the 70s early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -5.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.666 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

 

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