April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I feel like the wind isn't as strong as it was a few hours ago, but it's still pretty breezy for sure

Yes, right now the neighbor's kids are more of a problem than the wind.  I feel like they have a Dennis the Menace kid along with his sister, knocking over tables and food on their little hot wheels lol.

The winds have calmed down a bit.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The elongation of the subtropical ridge north to just east of New England has turned the flow more onshore at JFK. But the overall summer average high temperatures have been rising faster than the maximum high temperatures.So the rate of the average increase is faster than the increase in 90 days. This is due to the warmer minimums acting as a higher launch point for the afternoon highs. This results in the rate of 85° days increasing faster than the 90° days. Since the stronger afternoon sea breeze slows the rate of 90° days increasing faster increases. So two things can be true at the same time.

 

Chris, I have a question about the middle graph.  Is that for the entire summer or just for the hottest month (July).  Having an average high temperature of almost 86 seems rather high for JFK for an entire summer.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we'll start to see a change to more westerly flow this year with a switch to -AMO and back to more of an 80s/90s pattern that we've been seeing wholesale throughout our local climate. More summers like 1980 and 1983 and 1993 and 1999 and 2002 and 2010 vs what we've seen the last few years.

Thanks for this graph, this is exactly what I was looking for Chris!  1983, 2002 and 2010 really stand out!  Do you have a similar graph for 95 degree days too?

Our real heat comes from Sonoran Heat Release from the SW.

Right now it looks more like strong upwelling from the record westerly flow than a -AMO producing  that cold blob to our east as the rest of the Atlantic is very warm.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Right now it looks more like strong upwelling from the record westerly flow than a -AMO producing  that cold blob to our east as the rest of the Atlantic is very warm.

 

It's interesting how long this westerly flow might last, it seems to have some staying power.  I wonder if this is a CC response to the warming oceans and the marine heatwaves?  As an example, it was 85 here yesterday and only 2 miles away in Long Beach it was 61 lol. The seabreeze front didn't even make it to Sunrise Highway lol.  It would be absolutely awesome if it could do this in the summer too (maybe this is an early indicator of the summer ahead, like April 7, 2010 was for the magnificent 2010 summer?)

 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting how long this westerly flow might last, it seems to have some staying power.  I wonder if this is a CC response to the warming oceans and the marine heatwaves?  As an example, it was 85 here yesterday and only 2 miles away in Long Beach it was 61 lol. The seabreeze front didn't even make it to Sunrise Highway lol.  It would be absolutely awesome if it could do this in the summer too (maybe this is an early indicator of the summer ahead, like April 7, 2010 was for the magnificent 2010 summer?)

 

It seems like the record westerly flow since December is a result of the supercharged Northern Stream with storms racing through the Great Lakes. But the jet stream relaxes over the summer. So we would probably need to see where the ridge axis sets up. If it continues to be located more east of New England like recent summers, then the flow will become more onshore as the seasonal jet stream weakening progresses. But if the ridge axis builds more to our west into the Great Lakes, then the westerly flow will continue into the summer. 
 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It seems like the record westerly flow since December is a result of the supercharged Northern Stream with storms racing through the Great Lakes. But the jet stream relaxes over the summer. So we would probably need to see where the ridge axis sets up. If it continues to be located more east of New England like recent summers, then the flow will become more onshore as the seasonal jet stream weakening progresses. But if the ridge axis builds more to our west into the Great Lakes, then the westerly flow will continue into the summer. 
 

the ridge axis building to our west was more common in the 80s and 90s up to 2002 and then again 2010-13 Chris?

 

[Sundog]

Look at this beauty:

Gorgeous day for a full lamb rotisserie. 

Happy Easter!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Glad I at least put in the cool weather veggies. This week looks like optimal growing conditions. Still holding off on the hot weather loving plants, like Tomatoes and annuals. 

[TheClimateChanger]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the ridge axis building to our west was more common in the 80s and 90s up to 2002 and then again 2010-13 Chris?

 

Hopefully, it’s not too smoky of a summer. That could keep things a little cooler due to limited insulation. Definitely a bit of a milky haze here today. Not sure what it looks like on the east coast.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Hopefully, it’s not too smoky of a summer. That could keep things a little cooler due to limited insulation. Definitely a bit of a milky haze here today. Not sure what it looks like on the east coast.

we had smoke this morning, was there a fire in eastern PA? I read that there was.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Look at this beauty:

Gorgeous day for a full lamb rotisserie. 

Happy Easter!

omg that looks big enough to be a human.

[Superstorm]

we had smoke this morning, was there a fire in eastern PA? I read that there was.

Carbon County, PA


.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Carbon County, PA


.

Yeah I was keeping track of it because it was near my house there.

State and local fire crews are battling a large brush fire of unknown origin near Jim Thorpe in Carbon County.

Jacob Novitsky, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Bureau of Forestry, said the fire broke out around 4:30 p.m. Saturday along Bear Mountain, south of the Carbon County seat.

Novitsky said Sunday that about 70 firefighters from the region and state are working to extinguish the blaze, which he estimated has spread to around 260 acres in the Packerton Junction area. Forestry aircraft was called to help with the blaze.

“It’s still actively burning,” Novitsky said. “This is going to take a couple days, at least another two or three days, to get this buttoned up.”

Top Videos Calgary fire officials concerned about dry and windy conditions

 

 

 

-00:24

 

Dry weather, wind and location are making it difficult to bring the fire under control, he said.

No injuries have been reported, but it is possible that homes and other buildings near the fire could be evacuated, Novitsky said. He said area rail service, including tourist trains, is still running, but the Delaware & Lehigh Canal trail is closed between Packerton Junction and Long Run Road.

The fire is near Route 209 and the Lehigh River.

https://www.mcall.com/2025/04/20/jim-thorpe-brush-fire-sunday-update/

[psv88]

65 and sunny. Beautiful 

[IrishRob17]

62 under bright sunshine...the grandsons bubble machine is cranking around 50% efficiency due to the wind. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the ridge axis building to our west was more common in the 80s and 90s up to 2002 and then again 2010-13 Chris?

 

All the years with 5 or more days reaching 95° or higher at JFK had strong ridging to our west over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  But it’s been a challenge getting this pattern in recent years due to the ridges in the West and east of New England. This leaves more of a trough to our west bending the flow SE to SW instead of SW to NW.
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending annual number of 95° or warmer days

1	2010	10	0
2	1963	8	0
3	2002	7	0
-	1999	7	0
-	1983	7	0
4	2013	6	0
-	1949	6	0
5	2012	5	0
-	1966	5	0
-	1955	5	2

 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All the years with 5 or more days reaching 95° or higher at JFK had strong ridging to our west over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  But it’s been a challenge getting this pattern in recent years due to the ridges in the West and east of New England. This leaves more of a trough to our west bending the flow SE to SW instead of SW to NW.
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending annual number of 95° or warmer days

1	2010	10	0
2	1963	8	0
3	2002	7	0
-	1999	7	0
-	1983	7	0
4	2013	6	0
-	1949	6	0
5	2012	5	0
-	1966	5	0
-	1955	5	2

 

wow the top 3 had some great winters after they happened

2010-2013 was such an epic period for heat and snowstorms, I don't think we'll see either of those for a long time to come.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the top 3 had some great winters after they happened

2010-2013 was such an epic period for heat and snowstorms, I don't think we'll see either of those for a long time to come.

Why? Extremes rule now

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

omg that looks big enough to be a human.

Its a dog

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Why? Extremes rule now

we have a record drought of 100 degree highs.

The last time we hit 100 here was 2013.

The last time we had a 20 inch snowstorm was 2016

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be briefly cooler, but it will again turn milder on Tuesday. The generally mild weather will continue into at least the middle of next week, although Monday could be briefly cooler. It will also remain mainly dry into at least the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +11.10 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.953 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.7° (near normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

70.2 degrees here at 5:06 pm

[Brian5671]

Windy most of the day here but warm 65 and sunny-I'll take it for Easter!

[steve392]

We really looking at another 2 weeks before it might rain again? 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

we have a record drought of 100 degree highs.

The last time we hit 100 here was 2013.

The last time we had a 20 inch snowstorm was 2016

 

I wouldn’t use absolute air temps and obviously the Park. If you add dews and use the real feel temp, it’s been plenty hot. 106 at 55 like in 1936 was more bearable then 98 and 75. I love records too, but they aren’t always accurate as to the human experience.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t use absolute air temps and obviously the Park. If you add dews and use the real feel temp, it’s been plenty hot. 106 at 55 like in 1936 was more bearable then 98 and 75. I love records too, but they aren’t always accurate as to the human experience.

no NYC plus JFK

Real feel aren't actual temperatures any more than wind chill is though.

It's just a subjective measure of how people feel.

I get a kick out of seeing my digital thermometer hit triple digits or go below zero.  The only time I saw it go below zero was in January 1994. (I didn't have one in January 1985 and we didn't go below zero here in February 2016.)

We need these westerly winds to continue.

2010 and 2011 back to back were just so epic.

 

 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t use absolute air temps and obviously the Park. If you add dews and use the real feel temp, it’s been plenty hot. 106 at 55 like in 1936 was more bearable then 98 and 75. I love records too, but they aren’t always accurate as to the human experience.

heat and temperature are two different things

[LibertyBell]

Just now, forkyfork said:

heat and temperature are two different things

yes, average vs absolute.

[ag3]

Winds finally died here. Now a glorious evening.

Home station hit 74.1 degrees, but it did not feel that warm with the wind.

Currently, a glorious 67.6 degrees with light winds.

[psv88]

Got to 67 during the day. Looks like after tomorrow we bump up into the 60s as the baseline. Trees popping quickly now. Great to see