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April 2025 Discussion/Obs


Rjay
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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be cool if you knew someone in one of these towers that would let you come over during high wind events.While I wouldn’t want to experience it all the time, it would be interesting to see what it was like at least once. Almost reminds me of one of those theme park attractions. ;) I actually had a fiend who lived in the West End of Long Beach in a 2nd story unit which was built on lally columns. His ceiling lamp would sway and he had creaking noises when the winds went over 50mph. 

https://www.dezeen.com/2021/02/05/floods-and-high-winds-plague-residents-of-rafael-vinolys-432-park-avenue/

 

 

 

lol I wonder what they were doing in that earthquake we had last year around this time.

 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Areas that get heavy rates  have a chance...Crazy for 4/12

Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’.  But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one.

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45 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’.  But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one.

Looking for very late season comparisons what do you think of 4/19-20/1983 ?

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46 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’.  But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one.

I wonder if it would still be snowing after daybreak so we can actually see snow fall.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’.  But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one.

Well the hi-res RGEM printed out 13" for me at 12z so there's that. 

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A cold rain will develop this evening or early tonight and continue into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 40s in New York City area tomorrow. Some sleet pellets are possible outside New York City.

Across parts of Central New York State and central New England, wet snow is possible. An appreciable snowfall is possible in higher elevations. Where areas remain above freezing, snowfall amounts will be limited.

The temperature could approach seasonable levels on Sunday and then briefly go above normal early next week. However, before the warmth could become established, another surge of cooler air will push into the region by the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +25.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.151 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5° (1.2° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cold rain will develop this evening or early tonight and continue into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 40s in New York City area tomorrow. Some sleet pellets are possible outside New York City.

Across parts of Central New York State and central New England, wet snow is possible. An appreciable snowfall is possible in higher elevations. Where areas remain above freezing, snowfall amounts will be limited.

The temperature could approach seasonable levels on Sunday and then briefly go above normal early next week. However, before the warmth could become established, another surge of cooler air will push into the region by the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +25.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.151 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5° (1.2° below normal).

 

I think more than a sleet pellet 

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36 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The radar is reminding me of a classic noreaster

The radar looks like it should be snowing 2” an hour right now. It has that exact texture. Because at beam hight it’s all snow. Snow levels probably currently between 1500-2000’ feet based on surface temps. That terrace I was talking about at 1500’ will be covered in several inches in the morning.

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34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The radar looks like it should be snowing 2” an hour right now. It has that exact texture. Because at beam hight it’s all snow. Snow levels probably currently between 1500-2000’ feet based on surface temps. That terrace I was talking about at 1500’ will be covered in several inches in the morning.

Looks like about 2500 ft over NYC/LI, 1500 ft over CT from the beam height. 

IMG_0999 (1).jpg

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