April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

4 days in a row with an easterly component to the winds will attempt to push back against the record westerly flow since December.

 

 

I mean once that storm leaves the westerly flow will come right back

the storm is just an island in a vast westerly sea!!

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

4 days and not even an inch of rain (gfs has much more)

it's really just a 2 day storm, the other days just have a small amount of rain late (Thursday) and a small amount of rain early (Sunday).

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Could be some min/mid coastal flooding and beach erosion due to the fetch and duration. 
The ACOE did a major dredging of fire island inlet and dumped the sand at Gilgo where a new inlet is constantly trying to form. (There was one before it was filed for ocean parkway) Despite the fact that we have had such fast westerly flow the beach at jones beach is already about 50 yards bigger then last summer. Should grow even more this weekend. 
 

wouldn't the westerly flow actually result in a larger beach since the ocean is being pushed offshore?

 

[winterwx21]

Low temp of 28 here this morning. Our last morning in the 20s until the fall. 

Really a lousy week. Friday and Saturday we'll be stuck in the 40s with the rain. I'm looking forward to low 70s early next week. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean once that storm leaves the westerly flow will come right back

the storm is just an island in a vast westerly sea!!

 

Probably correct since it looks the storm track returns to the Great Lakes right after.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 85 (2013)
NYC: 86 (1991)
LGA: 84 (1991)
JFK: 83 (2013)



Lows:

EWR: 26 (1977)
NYC: 25 (1977)
LGA: 26 (1977)
JFK: 28 (1977)


Historical:
 

1877 - Oregon Inlet, NC, was widened three quarters of a mile by a nor'easter. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1947 - A tornado struck Woodward, OK, during the late evening killing 95 persons and causing six million dollars damage. The tornado, one to two miles in width, and traveling at a speed of 68 mph, killed a total of 167 persons along its 221 mile path from Texas into Kansas, injured 980 others, and caused nearly ten million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) A man looking out his front door was swept by a tornado from his home near Higgins TX and carried two hundred feet over trees. The bodies of two people, thought to be together at Glazier TX, were found three miles apart. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1977 - A storm brought 15.5 inches of rain to Jolo, WV, in thirty hours. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - International Falls, MN, reported their sixth straight record high for the date, with a reading of 77 degrees. A cold front ushering sharply colder weather into the north central U.S. produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Glasgow MT. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Residents of Sioux City, IA, awoke to find two inches of snow on the ground following a record high temperature of 88 degrees the previous afternoon. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Eighteen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Eureka CA established a record for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central High Plains to Arkansas and northern Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned five tornadoes, and there were seventy reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado injured four persons at Ardmore OK, and thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Kellyville OK, and hail three inches in diameter at Halmstead KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2011 - An EF-3 tornado hits Mapleton, IA. Officials estimate more than half the town is damaged or destroyed but none of the 1200 residents were killed. 31 tornadoes were confirmed across Iowa, Kentucky, Tennessee and North Carolina on this day.

[steve392]

41 and windy at Citi Field right now.  Thank God for this sun warming us up a little. 

[MANDA]

12:45 p.m. on April 9th - wall to wall sunshine and the temperature is just 39 degrees.  Pretty impressive.

[MANDA]

Love visible satellite pictures.

 

 

 

[uofmiami]

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it's really just a 2 day storm, the other days just have a small amount of rain late (Thursday) and a small amount of rain early (Sunday).

It could turn out to be most of the rain falling on one day or 24 hr period with just nuisance showers and onshore flow the other days.

[Monty]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Low temp of 28 here this morning. Our last morning in the 20s until the fall. 

Really a lousy week. Friday and Saturday we'll be stuck in the 40s with the rain. I'm looking forward to low 70s early next week. 

5/18/23 would like a word 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wouldn't the westerly flow actually result in a larger beach since the ocean is being pushed offshore?

 

This isn’t easy for me to describe in words.

So bassically the prevailing flow of sand on the south shore, called the lateral drift goes from east to west. As the bluffs erode in Montauk they renurish the beaches to the west with new sand. You can actually see the sand particle size decrease as you head west. With Long Beach and Rockaway having much finer sand then the Hamptons. Under natural conditions the beaches erode and are replenished seasonally. Since humans added things like jettys to keep inlets open and groins to trap sand we have disrupted the flow of sand.

Thats why there is a need for intervention. If you look at a place like west end 2 and jones beach, the large jetty protecting jones inlet acts as a block to sand movement. That area has been growing year after year. Further east at gilgo there is net erosion. So that sand that was added at gilgo ends up heading west and gets stopped by the jetty. All of this happens regardless of the local winds, seasonally. I’m sure the strong westerly winds did slow if not stop the lateral drift for a time. But any long period of easterly flow ramps it back up. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It could turn out to be most of the rain falling on one day or 24 hr period with just nuisance showers and onshore flow the other days.

Chris do you remember with December 1992 did most of the rain fall on one day or was it heavy rain for three days? I remember the winds were high for 5 days and there was about an inch of snow on the third day of the storm.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This isn’t easy for me to describe in words.

So bassically the prevailing flow of sand on the south shore, called the lateral drift goes from east to west. As the bluffs erode in Montauk they renurish the beaches to the west with new sand. You can actually see the sand particle size decrease as you head west. With Long Beach and Rockaway having much finer sand then the Hamptons. Under natural conditions the beaches erode and are replenished seasonally. Since humans added things like jettys to keep inlets open and groins to trap sand we have disrupted the flow of sand.

Thats why there is a need for intervention. If you look at a place like west end 2 and jones beach, the large jetty protecting jones inlet acts as a block to sand movement. That area has been growing year after year. Further east at gilgo there is net erosion. So that sand that was added at gilgo ends up heading west and gets stopped by the jetty. All of this happens regardless of the local winds, seasonally. I’m sure the strong westerly winds did slow if not stop the lateral drift for a time. But any long period of easterly flow ramps it back up. 

I wonder what some of our big noreasters like December 1992 mentioned above did to the sand there?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

12:45 p.m. on April 9th - wall to wall sunshine and the temperature is just 39 degrees.  Pretty impressive.

wow very different here we hit low 50s.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 85 (2013)
NYC: 86 (1991)
LGA: 84 (1991)
JFK: 83 (2013)



Lows:

EWR: 26 (1977)
NYC: 25 (1977)
LGA: 26 (1977)
JFK: 28 (1977)


Historical:
 

1877 - Oregon Inlet, NC, was widened three quarters of a mile by a nor'easter. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1947 - A tornado struck Woodward, OK, during the late evening killing 95 persons and causing six million dollars damage. The tornado, one to two miles in width, and traveling at a speed of 68 mph, killed a total of 167 persons along its 221 mile path from Texas into Kansas, injured 980 others, and caused nearly ten million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) A man looking out his front door was swept by a tornado from his home near Higgins TX and carried two hundred feet over trees. The bodies of two people, thought to be together at Glazier TX, were found three miles apart. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1977 - A storm brought 15.5 inches of rain to Jolo, WV, in thirty hours. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - International Falls, MN, reported their sixth straight record high for the date, with a reading of 77 degrees. A cold front ushering sharply colder weather into the north central U.S. produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Glasgow MT. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Residents of Sioux City, IA, awoke to find two inches of snow on the ground following a record high temperature of 88 degrees the previous afternoon. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Eighteen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Eureka CA established a record for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central High Plains to Arkansas and northern Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned five tornadoes, and there were seventy reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado injured four persons at Ardmore OK, and thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Kellyville OK, and hail three inches in diameter at Halmstead KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2011 - An EF-3 tornado hits Mapleton, IA. Officials estimate more than half the town is damaged or destroyed but none of the 1200 residents were killed. 31 tornadoes were confirmed across Iowa, Kentucky, Tennessee and North Carolina on this day.

Lows:

EWR: 26 (1977)
NYC: 25 (1977)
LGA: 26 (1977)
JFK: 28 (1977)

 

The impressive thing about this arctic cold snap in 1977 is that a few days after this JFK had their earliest 90 degree day on record.

[Brian5671]

48 for the high here-sun made it feel warmer than it was...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what some of our big noreasters like December 1992 mentioned above did to the sand there?

 

92 moved more sand then any event in my lifetime. Sandy, didn’t move sand laterally so much as pushed it inland. Pic from my first apartment at Monroe Beach after sandy.

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris do you remember with December 1992 did most of the rain fall on one day or was it heavy rain for three days? I remember the winds were high for 5 days and there was about an inch of snow on the third day of the storm.

Most of the rain fell on the 11th.

Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1992-12-10	0.45
1992-12-11	2.55
1992-12-12	0.20
1992-12-13	0.05

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1992-12-10	T
1992-12-11	2.65
1992-12-12	0.34
1992-12-13	0.02

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of the rain fell on the 11th.

Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1992-12-10	0.45
1992-12-11	2.55
1992-12-12	0.20
1992-12-13	0.05

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1992-12-10	T
1992-12-11	2.65
1992-12-12	0.34
1992-12-13	0.02

 

so that snow was on the 4th day of the storm Chris? and gale force (40 mph +) for 5 days?

I know wind gusts at LGA reached hurricane force (77 mph I think.)

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

92 moved more sand then any event in my lifetime. Sandy, didn’t move sand laterally so much as pushed it inland. Pic from my first apartment at Monroe Beach after sandy.

 

omg it even changed the color of the sand!

all joking aside it's understandable that Sandy pushed sand inland because of its angle of approach and the SE winds.  SE winds are considered our most damaging winds for trees and I wonder how many trees were damaged because of Sandy.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

48 for the high here-sun made it feel warmer than it was...

plus the winds calmed down somewhat.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of the rain fell on the 11th.

Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1992-12-10	0.45
1992-12-11	2.55
1992-12-12	0.20
1992-12-13	0.05

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1992-12-10	T
1992-12-11	2.65
1992-12-12	0.34
1992-12-13	0.02

 

Strange that JFK had almost half an inch on the first day of the storm while Islip only had a trace of rainfall.

 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so that snow was on the 4th day of the storm Chris? and gale force (40 mph +) for 5 days?

I know wind gusts at LGA reached hurricane force (77 mph I think.)

 

Light snow on the 12th to 13th. But getting 3 days or more in a row with 1.00”+ of precipitation is very rare. That’s why long range models often spread the heavy rain out too much over multiple days. As we usually have the rain focus more on 1 day or 24 hr period with nuisance rainfall or drizzle on the other days.

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	4	1975-09-23 through 1975-09-26
2	3	2018-11-24 through 2018-11-26
-	3	2005-10-12 through 2005-10-14
-	3	1977-09-24 through 1977-09-26

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	4	1975-09-23 through 1975-09-26
2	3	2021-08-21 through 2021-08-23
-	3	2005-10-12 through 2005-10-14
-	3	1984-05-28 through 1984-05-30
-	3	1944-09-12 through 1944-09-14
-	3	1938-09-19 through 1938-09-21
-	3	1933-08-21 through 1933-08-23
-	3	1920-02-04 through 1920-02-06
-	3	1889-07-30 through 1889-08-01
-	3	1882-09-21 through 1882-09-23

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	3	1998-05-09 through 1998-05-11
-	3	1989-08-11 through 1989-08-13
-	3	1988-07-19 through 1988-07-21
-	3	1984-05-28 through 1984-05-30
-	3	1946-07-21 through 1946-07-23
-	3	1944-09-12 through 1944-09-14
-	3	1938-09-19 through 1938-09-21

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Light snow on the 12th to 13th. But getting 3 days or more in a row with 1.00”+ of precipitation is very rare. That’s why long range models often spread the heavy rain out too much over multiple days. As we usually have the rain focus more on 1 day or 24 hr period with nuisance rainfall or drizzle on the other days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	4	1975-09-23 through 1975-09-26
2	3	2018-11-24 through 2018-11-26
-	3	2005-10-12 through 2005-10-14
-	3	1977-09-24 through 1977-09-26

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	4	1975-09-23 through 1975-09-26
2	3	2021-08-21 through 2021-08-23
-	3	2005-10-12 through 2005-10-14
-	3	1984-05-28 through 1984-05-30
-	3	1944-09-12 through 1944-09-14
-	3	1938-09-19 through 1938-09-21
-	3	1933-08-21 through 1933-08-23
-	3	1920-02-04 through 1920-02-06
-	3	1889-07-30 through 1889-08-01
-	3	1882-09-21 through 1882-09-23

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	3	1998-05-09 through 1998-05-11
-	3	1989-08-11 through 1989-08-13
-	3	1988-07-19 through 1988-07-21
-	3	1984-05-28 through 1984-05-30
-	3	1946-07-21 through 1946-07-23
-	3	1944-09-12 through 1944-09-14
-	3	1938-09-19 through 1938-09-21

Thanks Chris, I figured the epic February 1920 17" three inch mixed precip storm would be in this list.  Is this our only frozen storm to make this list? I noticed it's the only one that happened in the winter!  The one from around Thanksgiving 2018 was close to the start of met winter, was that all rain, I don't remember it at all.

 

That three day storm from September 1944 and the three day storm from September 1938 also stick out, were they both from those two big hurricanes?

Was the 4 day event at both JFK and NYC in September 1975 from some sort of tropical event? Or the 3 day event from September 1977, only 2 years later? It seems like September is the most common time for these multiday big storms to occur!

I clearly remember the 3 day event in October 2005 (that was the first time I ever used a digital rain gauge, what a way to break it in!)  I think in eastern Long Island that might have been even worse (up to 2 feet of rain!)

It's wild that one of these 3 day storms is from July 1988, that was one of our hotter summers, I wonder what kind of storm that was? And then another one the following summer in August 1989!

Was the 3 day event from August 2021 a tropical event? I remember we had a big flooding rainfall around the time of a concert in Central Park.

[donsutherland1]

It will begin to turn somewhat milder starting tomorrow, but temperatures will remain below seasonal norms. Temperatures could approach seasonable levels by the end of the weekend and it could briefly turn milder than normal early next week.

In addition, a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is likely from Friday through Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +3.32 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.103 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.0° (0.7° below normal).

 

[Feen]

I am going to Liberty New York this weekend, does anyone think we'll get any accumulating snow there this weekend?

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, Feen said:

I am going to Liberty New York this weekend, does anyone think we'll get any accumulating snow there this weekend?

Possibly, looks like higher elevations in the Catskills could get a nice event. If you’re away from Rt 17 and in the higher elevations the chances are better. 

[psv88]

49 today. Enough of this crap