April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The very low soil moisture has been pretty persistent as the strong winds quickly dry things out behind the parade of storms through the Great Lakes that have been generally underperforming on moisture.
 

 

There are other benefits to having drier conditions beyond simply lower humidity and lower levels of allergens.

I've noticed in our wetter years we have much higher populations of pests like ticks and mosquitoes.  They are much lower when it's hot and dry.  No doubt having a tropical rain forest like climate during the warm season will increase the risk of infectious diseases as not only are these pest vectors more common it's been proven that bacteria are more infectious in warm humid conditions than they are in drier hotter weather because they can be airborne for longer time periods when it's warm and humid as opposed to hot and dry (the opposite is true of viruses which spend more time airborne in cold and dry conditions, part of the reason why the flu virus and other viruses were so bad last winter.)

 

[SACRUS]

 

58 / 32 mostly sunny.  Low - upper 70s today, near to low/mid 80s tomorrow (in the warm spots).  Nice week on tap.  Showers / storms potential later thursday night into Friday (0.15 - 0.50).   The Weekend looks mainly dry once past Sat AM.  Overnight forecast has trough nd cutoff more to the NE and keeps the areas near to above normal through the next 10 days (overall).  Will see if subsequent data continue to shows the trough more to the NE.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 90 (2009)
NYC: 90 (2009)
LGA: 89 (2009)
JFK: 85 (2009)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1934)
NYC: 31 (1874)
LGA: 36 (1947)
JFK: 37 (1966)

Historical:

 

1893: A half-mile wide estimated F4 tornado killed 23 people and injured 150 as it tore a path of devastation through Cisco, Texas. Every building in the town was either destroyed or severely damaged. 

1921 - A severe hailstorm in Anson County, NC, produced hail the size of baseballs. Gardens, grain fields and trees were destroyed. Pine trees in the storm's path had to be cut for lumber because of the hail damage. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - A coastal storm produced tremendous late season snows in the Central Appalachians, including 35 inches at Bayard WV, 31 inches at Somerset PA, and 30 inches at Grantsville MD. High winds accompanying the heavy wet snow uprooted trees and unroofed a number of homes. The storm caused great damage to fruit trees and wild life. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1973: The record crest of the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri was registered at 43.23 feet on this day. This level exceeded the previous 1785 mark by 1.23 feet. This record was broken during the 1993 Flood when the Mississippi River crested at 49.58 feet on August 1st. At Memphis, Tennessee, the Mississippi was over flood stage for 63 days, more than that of the historic 1927 flood, and the river was above flood stage for an even longer 107 days at upstream Cairo, Illinois. Out of the seven largest floods on the Mississippi between 1927 and 1997, the 1973 event ranked third in both volume discharged and duration but only sixth in flood height. Over $250 million of damages were incurred mainly in the Mississippi Valley states of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

 

1987 - Twenty cities in the western and central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 95 degrees at Houston TX, 95 degrees at Lake Charles LA, and 94 degrees at Port Arthur TX, were April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Miami, FL, hit 92 degrees, marking a record eight days of 90 degree heat in the month of April. Squalls produced snow in the Washington D.C. area. Belvoir VA reported a temperature reading of 57 degrees at the time the snow began. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Strong northerly winds and heavy snow ushered cold air into the north central U.S. Snowfall totals in Montana ranged up to 20 inches at Miles City. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas to the Southern Appalachians and the southern Ohio Valley. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported at Keller TX and White Settlement TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. during the day. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Inman SC. There were also more than one hundred reports of large hail and damaging winds, with better than half of those reports in Georgia. Strong thunderstorm winds injured four people at Sadler's Creek SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Twenty-nine cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s. Highs of 88 degrees at Binghamton NY, 94 degrees at Buffalo NY, 89 degrees at Erie PA, 90 degrees at Newark NJ, 93 degrees at Rochester NY and 92 degrees at Syracuse NY, were records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1991: Memphis, Tennessee recorded their wettest April ever with 15.03 inches, breaking their previous record of 13.90 inches in 1872.

2002: During the evening hours, a violent F4 tornado carved a 64-mile path across southeast Maryland. The La Plata, Maryland tornado was part of a larger severe weather outbreak that began in the mid-Mississippi Valley early on that day and spread across portions of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States. In Maryland, three deaths and 122 injuries were a direct result of the storm. Property damage exceeded $100 million. Tornadoes along the Atlantic coast are not frequent, and tornadoes of this magnitude are extremely rare. Only six F4 tornadoes have occurred farther north and east of the La Plata storm: Worchester, Massachusetts - 1953; New York/Massachusetts - 1973; Windsor Locks, Connecticut - 1979; five counties in New York - 1989; New Haven, Connecticut - 1989; North Egremont, Massachusetts - 1995. None was as close to the coast. The tornado traveled across the Chesapeake Bay almost to the Atlantic. 

[SACRUS]

 

April rainfall (28th)
site / actual (monthly avg)

EWR: 2.39 (3.99)
NYC: 3.25 (4.21)
LGA: 2.84 (3.99)
JFK: 2.17 ( 3.62)
PHL: 2.83 (3.65)

[SACRUS]

 

That 1928 coastal must have been something.

 

https://www.wtaj.com/weather/the-late-april-snowstorm-of-1928/

[FPizz]

37 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

April rainfall (28th)
site / actual (monthly avg)

EWR: 2.39 (3.99)
NYC: 3.25 (4.21)
LGA: 2.84 (3.99)
JFK: 2.17 ( 3.62)
PHL: 2.83 (3.65)

2.52 for my area

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There are other benefits to having drier conditions beyond simply lower humidity and lower levels of allergens.

I've noticed in our wetter years we have much higher populations of pests like ticks and mosquitoes.  They are much lower when it's hot and dry.  No doubt having a tropical rain forest like climate during the warm season will increase the risk of infectious diseases as not only are these pest vectors more common it's been proven that bacteria are more infectious in warm humid conditions than they are in drier hotter weather because they can be airborne for longer time periods when it's warm and humid as opposed to hot and dry (the opposite is true of viruses which spend more time airborne in cold and dry conditions, part of the reason why the flu virus and other viruses were so bad last winter.)

 

The Euro updated seasonal forecast for the summer will be out on May 5th. It actually has been one of the better periods for seasonal forecast skill of summer temperatures and 500 mb patterns. 

My guess is that this dry pattern will generally continue into the summer as it has been very persistent especially in Eastern PA into NJ. The last time we had a dry pattern heading  into the summer was 2022. This is when NJ reached 100° over 5 times but the areas further east had more onshore flow and less 100° heat than NJ. 

So our first hints on summer wind direction will probably come with the Euro update on May 5th.
 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

That 1928 coastal must have been something.

 

https://www.wtaj.com/weather/the-late-april-snowstorm-of-1928/

You can get cold pools at 850 this time of year. Line up strong enough dynamics and you can cool the column down to 32. Obviously elevation helps and that seems to be the case with this storm. The tree damage must have been near complete in areas that had 30”+. Wet snow and broadleaf deciduous trees in full leaf really do not mix.

[forkyfork]

more dry wind tomorrow

[Brian5671]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro updated seasonal forecast for the summer will be out on May 5th. It actually has been one of the better periods for seasonal forecast skill of summer temperatures and 500 mb patterns. 

My guess is that this dry pattern will generally continue into the summer as it has been very persistent especially in Eastern PA into NJ. The last time we had a dry pattern heading  into the summer was 2022. This is when NJ reached 100° over 5 times but the areas further east had more onshore flow and less 100° heat than NJ. 

So our first hints on summer wind direction will probably come with the Euro update on May 5th.
 

 

2022 was bone dry especially in July/August.    Got wet in September-kind of the opposite of last year where we dried out in the fall.

[MANDA]

Nice time lapse of T-Storms moving through NYC early Saturday evening.

https://x.com/i/status/1916519549328896468

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro updated seasonal forecast for the summer will be out on May 5th. It actually has been one of the better periods for seasonal forecast skill of summer temperatures and 500 mb patterns. 

My guess is that this dry pattern will generally continue into the summer as it has been very persistent especially in Eastern PA into NJ. The last time we had a dry pattern heading  into the summer was 2022. This is when NJ reached 100° over 5 times but the areas further east had more onshore flow and less 100° heat than NJ. 

So our first hints on summer wind direction will probably come with the Euro update on May 5th.
 

 

if we had a dry pattern though why did we still have an onshore flow?

usually you need a downsloping flow for it to be that dry like 1966 was.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

more dry wind tomorrow

and clear blue skies

[Stormlover74]

72 feels cool in the shade

Humidity in the upper teens

[steve392]

Absolutely gorgeous out! 75,cool breeze and not a cloud in sight. 

[winterwx21]

76 degrees here with a dewpoint of 31 and not a cloud in the sky. Weather doesn't get any better than this. 

The soil here is very dry though. I'm going outside now to water the vegetable garden. I hope we get a decent amount of rain at the end of the week. I see the Euro now gives us most of our rain Saturday instead of Friday.