April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MANDA said:

Two day total here was .60".  Not great but better than nothing.  Windy again with gusts into the mid 30's.

But it was on target with predictions which were between 0.5 to 1 inch.

We'll get another one of these storms next Friday.

1 inch plus rainfall events are not that common (or aren't supposed to be).  Getting 2 storms like this every week is enough.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s more pronounced to our SW as they are down more than 10 inches since last summer. 
 

 

Yes, southern NJ and Eastern PA have severe drought in some spots, but NYC and Western Long Island only have dry conditions and once you get to Suffolk County it's not even dry.

Reservoirs are up around 95% which is pretty good.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Anyone have the rainfall totals for the area?  I can never get the links when searching

The rainfall totals I saw were NYC 0.80 Islip 0.50 and Lower Hudson Valley up to 1.50 inches.

The predictions I saw were from 0.50 to 1 inch, so the forecasts were right on target.

[steve392]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The rainfall totals I saw were NYC 0.80 Islip 0.50 and Lower Hudson Valley up to 1.50 inches.

The predictions I saw were from 0.50 to 1 inch, so the forecasts were right on target.

Was just curious, the line that i hit leaving work was pretty intense.  Im usually ok driving in heavy rains in my truck but i got to the point of nearly pulling over, wipers on high did nothing.

[steve392]

Anyone know how to search dates/times on weather underground for the weather station data?  

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Meant to say less than 70% so down 30. I looked recently and Q1 was down about 4", so not met winter but close. You also got quite a bit more frozen precip than I did.

So along the lines of what this map is showing as shared earlier: https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture

[MANDA]

41 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Anyone have the rainfall totals for the area?  I can never get the links when searching

Two day event totals.

Click to enlarge

Here is link:

https://www.cocorahs.org/

 

[forkyfork]

another 50 mph day with no advisory

[Stormlover74]

At least Upton acknowledges guidance has been running too weak

The mixing, cold advection, and subsidence behind the departing upper low/trough will support sustained winds and gusts just below advisory levels.

NBM deterministic guidance has been running too weak with winds for the last several months, especially in cold advection and NW flow regimes. This appears to be no exception today and have raised sustained winds and wind gusts a bit above the NBM 90th percentile. Sustained NW winds 20-25 mph are likely with gusts 30-40 mph

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Two day event totals.

Click to enlarge

Here is link:

https://www.cocorahs.org/

 

from 0.3 to 1.5 inches, pretty much right on target with forecasts

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

So along the lines of what this map is showing as shared earlier: https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture

so about 10-20 percent for the majority of our area

[nycwinter]

with the wind howling it felt like a winter day this morning...lucky for me i was dressed for winter...

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

with the wind howling it felt like a winter day this morning...lucky for me i was dressed for winter...

aren't you always though?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I would think the first chance for any heat and I'm far from guaranteeing it then would be after about May 16th. Up until then it looks like the trough over southeast Canada, northern NE and the nw west Atlantic keeps backing up. The Euro went from developing the upper low to our west to developing it over the ne or western Atlantic. This pretty much cancels any heat chances until further notice. 

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would think the first chance for any heat and I'm far from guaranteeing it then would be after about May 16th. Up until then it looks like the trough over southeast Canada, northern NE and the nw west Atlantic keeps backing up. The Euro went from developing the upper low to our west to developing it over the ne or western Atlantic. This pretty much cancels any heat chances until further notice. 

WX/PT

Our first heat typically shows up near Memorial Day weekend so this would be right on time.

Looking like wet and somewhat cool first half of May?

 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

from 0.3 to 1.5 inches, pretty much right on target with forecasts

I was one of the unlucky spots -- only 0.15" here. Not enough to give things a good watering. Thursday night into Friday looks like the only decent chance of rain. Other than that the next week and a half looks dry. I'll be needing to water the vegetable garden a lot. 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I was one of the unlucky spots -- only 0.15" here. Not enough to give things a good watering. Thursday night into Friday looks like the only decent chance of rain. Other than that the next week and a half looks dry. I'll be needing to water the vegetable garden a lot. 

Same. Barely looks like it rained

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would think the first chance for any heat and I'm far from guaranteeing it then would be after about May 16th. Up until then it looks like the trough over southeast Canada, northern NE and the nw west Atlantic keeps backing up. The Euro went from developing the upper low to our west to developing it over the ne or western Atlantic. This pretty much cancels any heat chances until further notice. 

WX/PT

And if correct will also keep things on the drier side of normal on a NW flow.

[Sundog]

I just got a series of violent gusts out of nowhere. 

[Picard]

40 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I just got a serious of violent gusts out of nowhere. 

Same here.  My anemometer isn't working properly, but they were probably the worst of the day so far.
Unbelievable the wind here these past few months.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will rebound into the 70s tomorrow. Tuesday could be the warmest day of the week with the mercury reaching the upper 70s to perhaps 80°. April will end on a warmer than normal note. A cooler air mass will likely move into the region after midweek.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -11.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.464 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

And if correct will also keep things on the drier side of normal on a NW flow.

Thats going to be wonderful in the summer to keep the humidity low.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Man that wind sucks today. My veggies keep getting torn up. Almost regretting planting based on temps and disccounting winds. 

[ag3]

Gorgeous week coming up. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats going to be wonderful in the summer to keep the humidity low.

I doubt this pattern lasts throughout the summer. I'd be quite surprised if it did.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

12Z euro actually had two quite warm days warm days May 7th, 8th....outside chance at a stray 90 or two. I do not believe it will happen but we'll see.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, ag3 said:

Gorgeous week coming up. 

Yeah, warmer and drier than normal until further notice. 

 

[gravitylover]

19 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

So along the lines of what this map is showing as shared earlier: https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture

Seeing it laid out like that is interesting. I move around a lot and some areas seem to handle low soil moisture better than others. N and W are so much more heavily forested that it makes more of a difference. 

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so about 10-20 percent for the majority of our area

 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Seeing it laid out like that is interesting. I move around a lot and some areas seem to handle low soil moisture better than others. N and W are so much more heavily forested that it makes more of a difference. 

 

The very low soil moisture has been pretty persistent as the strong winds quickly dry things out behind the parade of storms through the Great Lakes that have been generally underperforming on moisture.
 

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Seeing it laid out like that is interesting. I move around a lot and some areas seem to handle low soil moisture better than others. N and W are so much more heavily forested that it makes more of a difference. 

 

I believe that there are a number of factors that affect soil moisture. Soil type would be a key factor, as would depth to bedrock I would think.