April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[MANDA]

6 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

I can't hate this idea enough

100% agree.  The planet is what about 4.5 billion years old, give or take a half billion.  Just when exactly was the climate not changing?

To think we're going to change anything by driving around in plug in cars and silencing cow farts is absurd.  Experiments to dim sunlight?

Yeah, that will end well.

[donsutherland1]

Today was another delightful spring day. Readings rose into the 70s.

The warm weather will continue through the week. It will turn somewhat cooler but remain mild during the weekend. A moderate rainfall is possible during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -7.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.743 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.1° above normal).

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The Saint, isn't that based on a well known old TV series?

Val Kilmer was one of the very best. RIP, Val.

 

Maybe? I’m not sure, that’s before my time. In the 90s movie this cute scientist discovers cold fusion and Val cons her and steals the formula she keeps in her brah. The interesting thing is, the Russian oligarchs try to steal it first because fusion is really bad when you make billions off natural gas. 
That has to be a major deferent to making fusion a reality. Exon Mobil isn’t about to start paying for fusion research. 

[Sundog]

21 minutes ago, MANDA said:

100% agree.  The planet is what about 4.5 billion years old, give or take a half billion.  Just when exactly was the climate not changing?

To think we're going to change anything by driving around in plug in cars and silencing cow farts is absurd.  Experiments to dim sunlight?

Yeah, that will end well.

There is natural variation in climate and then there's human induced changes. 

Just like you can die of natural causes or of a drug overdose. One was a natural death, the other self inflicted. 

Right now humanity is a major drug addict lol

[Sundog]

There should be a nice sea breeze both tomorrow and Friday for the coast keeping temps down to comfortable levels (for me) after mid afternoon. 

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Maybe? I’m not sure, that’s before my time. In the 90s movie this cute scientist discovers cold fusion and Val cons her and steals the formula she keeps in her brah. The interesting thing is, the Russian oligarchs try to steal it first because fusion is really bad when you make billions off natural gas. 
That has to be a major deferent to making fusion a reality. Exon Mobil isn’t about to start paying for fusion research. 

Fusion is going to make a lot of enemies, even renewable energy companies. 

I think of plastic recycling, supposedly it was good for the environment. It's actually really bad, as it produces an immense amount of microplastics.  

Good luck trying to shut down the plastic recycling industry! Haha

[SRRTA22]

Very faint smoke smell in bayonne

[MJO812]

I smell the smoke from the wildfires

[SRRTA22]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I smell the smoke from the wildfires

Yeah it smells like it's coming in waves

I also smell the beach haha

Itd be cool to see red skies again tomorrow doubt it happens though 

[MJO812]

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

Yeah it smells like it's coming in waves

I also smell the beach haha

Going to be alittle worse tomorrow with the stronger winds.

[SRRTA22]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Going to be alittle worse tomorrow with the stronger winds.

Also though we're not in a severe drought , things are still extremely dry and with thunderstorm season coming up , going to be easy for lightning to spark more wildfires 

[Snowlover11]

Got a whiff of the smoke coming across the TZ just now. Very faint.

[Sundog]

Air seems pretty clean this morning? No smoke smell here.

Is it elevated? Even so, it must be faint because the sunrise looks pretty typical, maybe a bit more vivid. 

[bluewave]

Very strong 30-35 mph Ambrose Jet will keep the South Shore beaches in the 50s with 80s away from the shore today.

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

16 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I could see it happening by 2050, earlier if AI figures it out quicker. The greatest thing about fusion is one of its biggest inhibitors. The movie the Saint with my buddy Val did a good job explaining this all the way back in the 90s. Practically free, unlimited energy is inherently its own worst enemy in a capitalist society.

I would think the opposite?  Not sure how anything can be free under strict regulations?

[SACRUS]

 

56 / 44 partly cloudy.  Upper 70s / low 80s to 50s along the coast.  More of the same tomorrow before the front brings meaningful rain (in nearly 2 weeks) of 0.50 or more rainfall  on Saturday.  Clear out and salvage Sunday to split the weekend. Overall warm week to close the month.

 

 

[Dark Star]

11 hours ago, Sundog said:

There is natural variation in climate and then there's human induced changes. 

Just like you can die of natural causes or of a drug overdose. One was a natural death, the other self inflicted. 

Right now humanity is a major drug addict lol

We can never be free and all forced to abide by the same edicts.  We are humans and are bound by human nature.  We cannot ever have zero emissions or zero waste as long as we live in an industrialized world (or society(s) in general).  There is no turning back now.  The only chance is education.  Education helps keep the population under control (voluntarily). 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Maybe? I’m not sure, that’s before my time. In the 90s movie this cute scientist discovers cold fusion and Val cons her and steals the formula she keeps in her brah. The interesting thing is, the Russian oligarchs try to steal it first because fusion is really bad when you make billions off natural gas. 
That has to be a major deferent to making fusion a reality. Exon Mobil isn’t about to start paying for fusion research. 

This is exactly why crapitalism is unsustainable.

I think the entire system of how the world operates will need to be overhauled, not just transitioning off of fossil fuels.

There are a lot of other evils that stem from it too (pollinator mass extinction, higher rates of cancer, etc.)

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

We can never be free and all forced to abide by the same edicts.  We are humans and are bound by human nature.  We cannot ever have zero emissions or zero waste as long as we live in an industrialized world (or society(s) in general).  There is no turning back now.  The only chance is education.  Education helps keep the population under control (voluntarily). 

Good point.  But the last sentence depends on  which nation one lives in.  In nations with poor education, it isn't happening.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Air seems pretty clean this morning? No smoke smell here.

Is it elevated? Even so, it must be faint because the sunrise looks pretty typical, maybe a bit more vivid. 

the pollen problem is currently worse than the smoke problem lol.

Where can we track pollen plumes that shift around because of the wind?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Sundog said:

Fusion is going to make a lot of enemies, even renewable energy companies. 

I think of plastic recycling, supposedly it was good for the environment. It's actually really bad, as it produces an immense amount of microplastics.  

Good luck trying to shut down the plastic recycling industry! Haha

plant based plastics are the wave of the future.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was another delightful spring day. Readings rose into the 70s.

The warm weather will continue through the week. It will turn somewhat cooler but remain mild during the weekend. A moderate rainfall is possible during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -7.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.743 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.1° above normal).

 

Looks like some major heat will move in starting next Wednesday Don? I see forecasts for 85+

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 87 (2001)
NYC: 87 (2001)
LGA: 87 (2001)
JFK: 79 (2008)


Lows:
 

 

EWR: 36 (1967)
NYC: 31 (1930)
LGA: 36 (1971)
JFK: 34 (1967)

Historical:

 

1880: Several tornadoes affected parts of central and southwest Illinois. One tornado of F4 intensity touched down near Jerseyville and killed one person along the 18-mile path. Another F4 tornado passed just north of Carlinville and lifted near Atwater, destroying 50 buildings. Six people died in Christian County by an F5 tornado, which tracked from 9 miles southwest of Taylorville to near Sharpsburg. 

1899 - Two women and one son lived to tell the story of being picked up by a tornado and carried more than a fourth of a mile, flying far above the church steeples, before being gently set down again. The young boy and one of the ladies said they had the pleasure of flying alongside a horse. The horse "kicked and struggled" as it flew high above, and was set down unharmed about a mile away. (The Weather Channel)

1908 - Severe thunderstorms spawned eighteen tornadoes over across the Central Gulf Coast States claiming the lives of 310 persons. The state of Mississippi was hardest hit. A tornado near Hattiesburg MS killed 143 persons and caused more than half a million dollars damage. Four violent tornadoes accounted for 279 of the 310 deaths. The deadliest of the four tornadoes swelled to a width of 2.5 miles as it passed near Amite LA. The tornado also leveled most of Purvis MS. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Up to seven inches of rain drenched Virginia in three days. Morgantown WV received 4.27 inches in 24 hours, and flooding was reported in south central West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure produced high winds and severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region. Strong thunderstorm winds destroyed two mobile homes at Whitt TX injuring two persons. Winds associated with the low pressure system gusted to 70 mph at Guadalupe Pass TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Russell KS was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 101 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Colorado to Wisconsin. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported at Sargeant NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern High Plains to north central Kansas. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, including one which injured four persons and caused 1.5 million dollars damage at Shattuck OK. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Wheeler TX, wind gusts to 85 mph southwest of Arnett OK, and 13.45 inches of rain near Caldwell TX, which resulted in the worst flooding in recent memory for that area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2003: The temperature soared to a maximum of 70 degrees in Juneau, Alaska. This is the earliest record of 70-degree reading to occur in Juneau. 

2010 - An EF-4 tornado up to 1.75 miles wide travels 149.25 miles through Mississippi, the widest and fourth longest path in Mississippi history. It left behind major destruction to businesses, churches and homes, four fatalities in Yazoo City and ten fatalities across the state,

2010: April Tornado Outbreak- During a significant severe weather outbreak across the South on April 22-25, 142 tornadoes raked the region, including 77 on April 24 alone. Ten died from the long-track tornado that swept across Mississippi on April 24. A long-lived twister left a trail of destruction extending over 149 miles from Louisiana through Mississippi, resulting in 10 deaths and 75 injuries. This EF4 storm, which grew to a width of 1.75 miles, sported the fourth longest track in Mississippi history. This storm destroyed part of Yazoo City, Mississippi. The Swiss Reinsurance Company estimated insured damages with this outbreak at $1.58 billion. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Jackson, Mississippi.

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Good point.  But the last sentence depends on  which nation one lives in.  In nations with poor education, it isn't happening.

That is the problem.  

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 87 (2001)
NYC: 87 (2001)
LGA: 87 (2001)
JFK: 79 (2008)


Lows:
 

 

EWR: 36 (1967)
NYC: 31 (1930)
LGA: 36 (1971)
JFK: 34 (1967)

Historical:

 

1880: Several tornadoes affected parts of central and southwest Illinois. One tornado of F4 intensity touched down near Jerseyville and killed one person along the 18-mile path. Another F4 tornado passed just north of Carlinville and lifted near Atwater, destroying 50 buildings. Six people died in Christian County by an F5 tornado, which tracked from 9 miles southwest of Taylorville to near Sharpsburg. 

1899 - Two women and one son lived to tell the story of being picked up by a tornado and carried more than a fourth of a mile, flying far above the church steeples, before being gently set down again. The young boy and one of the ladies said they had the pleasure of flying alongside a horse. The horse "kicked and struggled" as it flew high above, and was set down unharmed about a mile away. (The Weather Channel)

1908 - Severe thunderstorms spawned eighteen tornadoes over across the Central Gulf Coast States claiming the lives of 310 persons. The state of Mississippi was hardest hit. A tornado near Hattiesburg MS killed 143 persons and caused more than half a million dollars damage. Four violent tornadoes accounted for 279 of the 310 deaths. The deadliest of the four tornadoes swelled to a width of 2.5 miles as it passed near Amite LA. The tornado also leveled most of Purvis MS. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Up to seven inches of rain drenched Virginia in three days. Morgantown WV received 4.27 inches in 24 hours, and flooding was reported in south central West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure produced high winds and severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region. Strong thunderstorm winds destroyed two mobile homes at Whitt TX injuring two persons. Winds associated with the low pressure system gusted to 70 mph at Guadalupe Pass TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Russell KS was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 101 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Colorado to Wisconsin. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported at Sargeant NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern High Plains to north central Kansas. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, including one which injured four persons and caused 1.5 million dollars damage at Shattuck OK. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Wheeler TX, wind gusts to 85 mph southwest of Arnett OK, and 13.45 inches of rain near Caldwell TX, which resulted in the worst flooding in recent memory for that area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2003: The temperature soared to a maximum of 70 degrees in Juneau, Alaska. This is the earliest record of 70-degree reading to occur in Juneau. 

2010 - An EF-4 tornado up to 1.75 miles wide travels 149.25 miles through Mississippi, the widest and fourth longest path in Mississippi history. It left behind major destruction to businesses, churches and homes, four fatalities in Yazoo City and ten fatalities across the state,

2010: April Tornado Outbreak- During a significant severe weather outbreak across the South on April 22-25, 142 tornadoes raked the region, including 77 on April 24 alone. Ten died from the long-track tornado that swept across Mississippi on April 24. A long-lived twister left a trail of destruction extending over 149 miles from Louisiana through Mississippi, resulting in 10 deaths and 75 injuries. This EF4 storm, which grew to a width of 1.75 miles, sported the fourth longest track in Mississippi history. This storm destroyed part of Yazoo City, Mississippi. The Swiss Reinsurance Company estimated insured damages with this outbreak at $1.58 billion. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Jackson, Mississippi.

 

 

 

omg I would have loved to have seen this (and perhaps even joined them lol)

 

1899 - Two women and one son lived to tell the story of being picked up by a tornado and carried more than a fourth of a mile, flying far above the church steeples, before being gently set down again. The young boy and one of the ladies said they had the pleasure of flying alongside a horse. The horse "kicked and struggled" as it flew high above, and was set down unharmed about a mile away. (The Weather Channel)

[Stormlover74]

Euro came in with 1" for areas Saturday while most other models are under .5"

[donsutherland1]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like some major heat will move in starting next Wednesday Don? I see forecasts for 85+

It will turn quite warm for the middle of next week, but there remain differences on the guidance concerning the magnitude of the warmth. IMO, May looks to be warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal.

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro came in with 1" for areas Saturday while most other models are under .5"

Getting dry out there-hopefully the higher amts verify

[Juliancolton]

12 hours ago, MANDA said:

100% agree.  The planet is what about 4.5 billion years old, give or take a half billion.  Just when exactly was the climate not changing?

To think we're going to change anything by driving around in plug in cars and silencing cow farts is absurd.  Experiments to dim sunlight?

Yeah, that will end well.

Vibes over facts until the bitter end!!!

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Vibes over facts until the bitter end!!!

I wonder how many people know that the planet was completely uninhabitable throughout most of its history.