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April 2025 Discussion/Obs


Rjay
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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still requires a human element. AI isn’t even close to there yet. I’d say closer to 2050 then 2030. The real wild card is quantum computing.

Currenlty waiting for the sun and heading to the beach for nice run.

There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves. 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves. 

Exactly. That’s why I think you need to combine the computing power of quantum computers with AI to get there. Just too many possibilities. 
As for math, yeah meteorology is a math degree. I’ll pass on desecrate math and theoratical equations. I just barely handled the math to get an economics degree. 

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly. That’s why I think you need to combine the computing power of quantum computers with AI to get there. Just too many possibilities. 
As for math, yeah meteorology is a math degree. I’ll pass on desecrate math and theoratical equations. I just barely handled the math to get an economics degree. 

I ended up with a finance degree, thankfully I got through enough of the meteo math early enough to get that out of the way lol. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I ended up with a finance degree, thankfully I got through enough of the meteo math early enough to get that out of the way lol. 

Nice, I almost went the finance route but found Econ more science like. Either way, I’m a horticulturalist now! 
Heading down to the beach, temp just shot up here in lynbrook.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves. 

it will never be completely predictable-- too much chaos at play.

 

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2 hours ago, Monty said:

TV weather personalities are basically entertainers at this point. TV news has a format, it's somewhat interesting to me that the local news program still has the format of anchorman, just with more diversity. It's a well entrenched tradition.  The social media met is also more entertainment than depended upon forecaster. 

 

Otherwise I think meteorology will become more specialized/niche. Ag interests, airports, commodity. That's where humans will still have a role for a while. 

a lot of these TV weather people don't know any science at all, there are some exceptions like Lee Goldberg of course.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a lot of these TV weather people don't know any science at all, there are some exceptions like Lee Goldberg of course.

Local TV newscasts are a dying medium-mostly older viewers at this stage of the game.

-

Locally, 81 here with partly cloudy skies

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice, I almost went the finance route but found Econ more science like. Either way, I’m a horticulturalist now! 
Heading down to the beach, temp just shot up here in lynbrook.

Definitely an interesting field.   Always enjoying hearing your thoughts on the topic of horticulture.

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19 hours ago, forkyfork said:

more 40 kt gusts tomorrow

image.thumb.png.1d3e5ed672e2f6ee63d106b4970796fc.png

 

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Mid to upper 80s today for the warm spots with very steep lapse rates and gusts approaching 40 mph. But it will be a warm WSW wind instead of the cold NW winds we have recently been getting. So the strongest winds ahead of the front for a change instead of behind it. 

IMG_3427.thumb.png.51a67201efafc738765096b859cab1af.png

 

When?

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5 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

AI can only be so good as the data and observations that go into it. Less input data, more inaccuracy.

Clouds are holding back temps a bit here. Need them to thin out to get into the 70's here and 80's inland.

79 in Wantage NJ at 316PM..been up to 80.4. That's pretty big for us here in the hills.  

I think you'll see current obs continue and making better use of already available platforms.

I've wondered aloud about the future of forecasting since the 20teens.  Already modeling is so so good... r/s lines are next to improve.

It does not surprise that some of the writing has been on the wall for a while I can think of areas where NWS can minimize and areas where it needs to step up.  My minor words of wisdom have not been adopted since my 2018 departure. No problem.  I am grateful to be alive etc.

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5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still requires a human element. AI isn’t even close to there yet. I’d say closer to 2050 then 2030. The real wild card is quantum computing.

Currenlty waiting for the sun and heading to the beach for nice run.

imo... human element may need to be removed except first 12 hours. Certainly think that beyond 2 days where I think hazard announcements are not even outlined beyond the AFD. AFD does not count for me as public notice. I wish it did but  need to translate to actionable listening via products. 

Seems to me GFS and AI and EC modeling is VERY good through D6 ish.  Many dont care to act on anything, or at least beyond 2 pr 3 days. Toooo many doubters os non reliable resources of info. That's freedom. I can live with it. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This weather is disgusting 

Already sweating 

Bring on winter

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what are you even wearing? switch to tshirt and shorts

 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

84 here

Enjoy this day with your beautiful spouse. As always ….

 

IMG_1269.png

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