jm1220 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 2:02 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Still requires a human element. AI isn’t even close to there yet. I’d say closer to 2050 then 2030. The real wild card is quantum computing. Currenlty waiting for the sun and heading to the beach for nice run. Expand There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 3:24 PM, jm1220 said: There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves. Expand Exactly. That’s why I think you need to combine the computing power of quantum computers with AI to get there. Just too many possibilities. As for math, yeah meteorology is a math degree. I’ll pass on desecrate math and theoratical equations. I just barely handled the math to get an economics degree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 3:33 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. That’s why I think you need to combine the computing power of quantum computers with AI to get there. Just too many possibilities. As for math, yeah meteorology is a math degree. I’ll pass on desecrate math and theoratical equations. I just barely handled the math to get an economics degree. Expand I ended up with a finance degree, thankfully I got through enough of the meteo math early enough to get that out of the way lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 3:44 PM, jm1220 said: I ended up with a finance degree, thankfully I got through enough of the meteo math early enough to get that out of the way lol. Expand Nice, I almost went the finance route but found Econ more science like. Either way, I’m a horticulturalist now! Heading down to the beach, temp just shot up here in lynbrook. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 3:11 PM, SACRUS said: Up to 71, breeze blowing a bit and some breaks in the clouds approaching from C/E PA Expand lots of breaks here and patches of blue skies up to 78 here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 3:46 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nice, I almost went the finance route but found Econ more science like. Either way, I’m a horticulturalist now! Heading down to the beach, temp just shot up here in lynbrook. Expand Yes sunny and warm now 78 !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 3:24 PM, jm1220 said: There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves. Expand it will never be completely predictable-- too much chaos at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 2:51 PM, Monty said: TV weather personalities are basically entertainers at this point. TV news has a format, it's somewhat interesting to me that the local news program still has the format of anchorman, just with more diversity. It's a well entrenched tradition. The social media met is also more entertainment than depended upon forecaster. Otherwise I think meteorology will become more specialized/niche. Ag interests, airports, commodity. That's where humans will still have a role for a while. Expand a lot of these TV weather people don't know any science at all, there are some exceptions like Lee Goldberg of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 5:14 PM, LibertyBell said: a lot of these TV weather people don't know any science at all, there are some exceptions like Lee Goldberg of course. Expand Local TV newscasts are a dying medium-mostly older viewers at this stage of the game. - Locally, 81 here with partly cloudy skies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 3:46 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nice, I almost went the finance route but found Econ more science like. Either way, I’m a horticulturalist now! Heading down to the beach, temp just shot up here in lynbrook. Expand Definitely an interesting field. Always enjoying hearing your thoughts on the topic of horticulture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Up to 82 here. Warm winds blowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 5:27 PM, SACRUS said: Up to 82 here. Warm winds blowing Expand yes nice offshore wind, got up to 80 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 This weather is disgusting Already sweating Bring on winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 5:41 PM, MJO812 said: This weather is disgusting Already sweating Bring on winter Expand what are you even wearing? switch to tshirt and shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 71 here in the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 2:30 p.m. temperature today is 84 degrees. 2:30 p.m. temperature last Saturday was 37 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Torching here with 84 degrees. Give me my 60s back! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 6:35 PM, Sundog said: Torching here with 84 degrees. Give me my 60s back! Expand why it's not even humid lol it hit 80.1 here at 2:27 pm and has since dropped off, I think the sea breeze has come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 86/61, yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 83. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 84 and a beauty, not much wind at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 i took a walk this morning with a hoodie on temp was 69 cloudy skies when i went out still felt warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/18/2025 at 11:53 PM, forkyfork said: more 40 kt gusts tomorrow Expand On 4/19/2025 at 11:06 AM, bluewave said: Mid to upper 80s today for the warm spots with very steep lapse rates and gusts approaching 40 mph. But it will be a warm WSW wind instead of the cold NW winds we have recently been getting. So the strongest winds ahead of the front for a change instead of behind it. Expand When? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 The temperature has soared to 83° so far today in New York City. That's the warmest temperature to date this year. The New York Botanical Garden is filled with blossoms. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 2:10 PM, TWCCraig said: AI can only be so good as the data and observations that go into it. Less input data, more inaccuracy. Clouds are holding back temps a bit here. Need them to thin out to get into the 70's here and 80's inland. Expand 79 in Wantage NJ at 316PM..been up to 80.4. That's pretty big for us here in the hills. I think you'll see current obs continue and making better use of already available platforms. I've wondered aloud about the future of forecasting since the 20teens. Already modeling is so so good... r/s lines are next to improve. It does not surprise that some of the writing has been on the wall for a while I can think of areas where NWS can minimize and areas where it needs to step up. My minor words of wisdom have not been adopted since my 2018 departure. No problem. I am grateful to be alive etc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 2:02 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Still requires a human element. AI isn’t even close to there yet. I’d say closer to 2050 then 2030. The real wild card is quantum computing. Currenlty waiting for the sun and heading to the beach for nice run. Expand imo... human element may need to be removed except first 12 hours. Certainly think that beyond 2 days where I think hazard announcements are not even outlined beyond the AFD. AFD does not count for me as public notice. I wish it did but need to translate to actionable listening via products. Seems to me GFS and AI and EC modeling is VERY good through D6 ish. Many dont care to act on anything, or at least beyond 2 pr 3 days. Toooo many doubters os non reliable resources of info. That's freedom. I can live with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 84 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/19/2025 at 5:41 PM, MJO812 said: This weather is disgusting Already sweating Bring on winter Expand On 4/19/2025 at 5:54 PM, LibertyBell said: what are you even wearing? switch to tshirt and shorts Expand On 4/19/2025 at 7:31 PM, MJO812 said: 84 here Expand Enjoy this day with your beautiful spouse. As always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 87 degrees now! For the love of god make it stop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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