April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Man that wind REALLY started to howl a little while ago

came out of nowhere here. but still a great day

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm with readings soaring into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the New York City. The warmest spots will see temperatures approach the middle 80s.

The generally mild weather will continue into at least the middle of next week, although Monday could be briefly cooler. It will also remain mainly dry into at least early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -13.12 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.165 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.4° (0.3° below normal).

 

[forkyfork]

more 40 kt gusts tomorrow

[Rjay]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We're already seeing this now =\

I tried to look up low temperatures for airports on wunderground, here was the result

FRG (Farmingdale) redirects to JFK

FOK (Westhampton) and Shirley (HWV) redirects to ISP

MJX (Toms River) redirects to ACY

BLM (Belmar) redirects to EWR

MPO (Mt Pocono) redirects to Avoca

So I can't find the low at either FOK or MJX, which are our radiational cooling champions.  

Low at FOX was 25

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFOK.html

 

MJX

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMJX.html

[lee59]

Heat Island in full force last few mornings. 65 in the city this morning and closer to 50 in many suburbs, yesterday 50 in the city and 30s in the burbs.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and west of NYC.... when was the last time the city had 30 days of 90 or higher, 2010 I think?

 

we had 1.5 nice days, now the clouds have moved in and it's very windy.  It would be nice to get  a big blocking ridge to keep these lows away from us, there seems to be 2-4 every week (with or without rain.)

the high temperature here was at 1 pm, 66, now down to 61.

Mid to upper 80s today for the warm spots with very steep lapse rates and gusts approaching 40 mph. But it will be a warm WSW wind instead of the cold NW winds we have recently been getting. So the strongest winds ahead of the front for a change instead of behind it. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

67 / 52 and cloudy.  Very warm and windy low - mid 80s pending on breaks in the clouds and sun.  Front comes through later tonight.  Cooler but pleasant Easter Sunday.  Monday looks to be caught in the grey with temps stuck near 60.  Tuesday back to the upper 70s / low 80s and sunshine.  Rindge into the east and overall above normal 4/18 - 4/26.  Remaining dry as well 02.5 or less rainfall forecast in the next 7 days with Thu.Fri the next shot at light rain.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1976)
NYC: 92 (1976)
LGA: 85 (2002)
JFK: 84 (1985)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (2020)
NYC: 21 (1875)
LGA: 35 (1983)
JFK: 34 (2001)

 

Historical:

1775 - The first engagement of the Revolutionary War took place under clear crisp weather at Lexington-Concord. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1927: A deadly tornado outbreak occurred across the central part of Illinois, killing 21 people. The first tornado touched down near Hardin, traveling northeast through Carrollton, then skimmed the south side of Springfield. At Carrollton, a teacher was killed as she held the door of the school shut, saving the lives of her students. The second tornado, peaking at estimated F4 intensity, touched down on the southeast side of Springfield, then moved to affect the towns of Riverton, Buffalo Hart, Chestnut, and Cornland. In Buffalo Hart, only three houses were left standing, while the northern half of Cornland was leveled. The tornado track was 65 miles, ending in Ford County.

1941 - The temperature at Sodus, NY, soared to 95 degrees. The next day Albany, NY, reported a record for April of 93 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1973 - Glenrock, WY, received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1976 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of an early season heat wave, and the Boston Marathon took place in 90 degree heat. At Providence RI the mercury hit 98 degrees. (David Ludlum)

 

1986: A major storm system produced ten tornadoes in Texas. One of these tornadoes virtually annihilated the town of Sweetwater. The tornado struck at the unlikely time of 7:17 am. One person was killed, and 100 were injured. 

1987 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s for Easter Sunday. Fort Smith AR reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms over the southeastern U.S. early in the day spawned a strong (F-3) tornado which destroyed seventeen homes and severely damaged thirty houses near Madison FL killing four persons and injuring eighteen others. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A dozen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 98 degrees at Hanksville UT equalled their record for April. Tucson AZ reported their earliest 100 degree reading of record. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Five cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and upper teens. Elkins WV reported a record low of 20 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Southern Plains produced golf ball size hail at San Angelo TX, and up to four inches of rain in southwestern Oklahoma. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996 - One of the most memorable tornado outbreaks in Illinois history occurred on April 19, 1996. During the day, 33 tornadoes were reported as supercells erupted and moved across the state during the afternoon and evening hours. Wind estimates in excess of 170 mph were associated with some of the stronger tornadoes, one of which ripped through nearby Ogden, IL. (University of Illinois WW2010)

2006: An intense spring snowstorm swept across the Dakotas, dumping up to 5 feet of snow. The heaviest snow fell in the Black Hills, with 59.4 inches at Lead, SD. Bowman, ND reported 18 inches. The storm closed highways including I-94 in North Dakota, cutting power to thousands and was responsible for at least four deaths. Further west, 1 to 3 feet of snow and 50 to 60 mph winds caused drifts up to 10 feet, widespread power outages, and livestock losses.

[weathermedic]

67 in CPK at 8am with low-mid 50s along south shore of Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island. Temp at my location jumped from 57 to 64 as the wind shifted from SE to West. 

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, Sundog said:

Will it be closer to 20 because it won't be that hot or because Central Park is notorious for recording many 89 degree days while everyone else is in the 90s?

Yeah, moving the ASOS under the trees in the 1990s has kept the 90° day count closer to 20. My guess is that if the ASOS was out in the open like before 1995, NYC would have had well over 40 days reaching 90° back in 2010 instead of only 37. So it’s the only site away from the immediate shore which has had a decrease in 90° days. The sea breeze at Newark has been slowing the rate of increase there relative to sites like Freehold-Marlboro which have avoided the sea breeze. Over 40 days reaching 90°has become the norm away from the sea breeze in NJ during the 2020s.
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJTEWR&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[Stormlover74]

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of the area to a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening with the potential for strong thunderstorms bringing gusty winds. #NYwx #CTwx #NJwx

[wdrag]

Forecasting will probably revert temporarily to whatever model blend you can use, plus NBM with very little change from the downsized offices.  Weather forecasting in 2030?  Possibly automated-AI. My good times forecasting have come and gone.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Forecasting will probably revert temporarily to whatever model blend you can use, plus NBM with very little change from the downsized offices.  Weather forecasting in 2030?  Possibly automated-AI. My good times forecasting have come and gone.

Still requires a human element. AI isn’t even close to there yet. I’d say closer to 2050 then 2030. The real wild card is quantum computing.

Currenlty waiting for the sun and heading to the beach for nice run.

[TWCCraig]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Forecasting will probably revert temporarily to whatever model blend you can use, plus NBM with very little change from the downsized offices.  Weather forecasting in 2030?  Possibly automated-AI. My good times forecasting have come and gone.

AI can only be so good as the data and observations that go into it. Less input data, more inaccuracy.

Clouds are holding back temps a bit here. Need them to thin out to get into the 70's here and 80's inland.

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still requires a human element. AI isn’t even close to there yet. I’d say closer to 2050 then 2030. The real wild card is quantum computing.

Currenlty waiting for the sun and heading to the beach for nice run.

90% of people now look at their phones with the forecast right on them that comes ripped from the gfs and dont give any more thought to it.  9% still watch local TV for the weather.  The other 1% are here or other weather forums and we say most of the time that we are better than the nws anyway, haha

[Stormlover74]

My weather app says it's currently raining

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

90% of people now look at their phones with the forecast right on them that comes ripped from the gfs and dont give any more thought to it.  9% still watch local TV for the weather.  The other 1% are here or other weather forums and we say most of the time that we are better than the nws anyway, haha

You know the GFS is funded by the government right?

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still requires a human element. AI isn’t even close to there yet. I’d say closer to 2050 then 2030. The real wild card is quantum computing.

Currenlty waiting for the sun and heading to the beach for nice run.

2030 would be late given how fast Ai is advancing

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Mid to upper 80s today for the warm spots with very steep lapse rates and gusts approaching 40 mph. But it will be a warm WSW wind instead of the cold NW winds we have recently been getting. So the strongest winds ahead of the front for a change instead of behind it. 

 

there's some sunshine from time to time but not a lot.  The winds are not strong right now.

[psv88]

70 now with filtered sun. Need the clouds to clear out for a chance at 80 out here 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, FPizz said:

90% of people now look at their phones with the forecast right on them that comes ripped from the gfs and dont give any more thought to it.  9% still watch local TV for the weather.  The other 1% are here or other weather forums and we say most of the time that we are better than the nws anyway, haha

On the positive side those local TV forecasts are much more accurate than some of the maps that get posted on here (especially during the winter lol.)

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

90% of people now look at their phones with the forecast right on them that comes ripped from the gfs and dont give any more thought to it.  9% still watch local TV for the weather.  The other 1% are here or other weather forums and we say most of the time that we are better than the nws anyway, haha

I'm not sure if those forecasts are ripped off the GFS though, this past winter I noticed that even when the GFS had a snowstorm for us, those forecasts did not.  I've heard they use an inhouse blend of models.  ABC/Accuweather and TWC do at any rate.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, moving the ASOS under the trees in the 1990s has kept the 90° day count closer to 20. My guess is that if the ASOS was out in the open like before 1995, NYC would have had well over 40 days reaching 90° back in 2010 instead of only 37. So it’s the only site away from the immediate shore which has had a decrease in 90° days. The sea breeze at Newark has been slowing the rate of increase there relative to sites like Freehold-Marlboro which have avoided the sea breeze. Over 40 days reaching 90°has become the norm away from the sea breeze in NJ during the 2020s.
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJTEWR&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

when will these sea breeze summers stop? we need a stronger SE ridge.

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

My weather app says it's currently raining

Yep. Wunderground shows rain overhead and it’s sunny 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1976)
NYC: 92 (1976)
LGA: 85 (2002)
JFK: 84 (1985)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (2020)
NYC: 21 (1875)
LGA: 35 (1983)
JFK: 34 (2001)

 

Historical:

1775 - The first engagement of the Revolutionary War took place under clear crisp weather at Lexington-Concord. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1927: A deadly tornado outbreak occurred across the central part of Illinois, killing 21 people. The first tornado touched down near Hardin, traveling northeast through Carrollton, then skimmed the south side of Springfield. At Carrollton, a teacher was killed as she held the door of the school shut, saving the lives of her students. The second tornado, peaking at estimated F4 intensity, touched down on the southeast side of Springfield, then moved to affect the towns of Riverton, Buffalo Hart, Chestnut, and Cornland. In Buffalo Hart, only three houses were left standing, while the northern half of Cornland was leveled. The tornado track was 65 miles, ending in Ford County.

1941 - The temperature at Sodus, NY, soared to 95 degrees. The next day Albany, NY, reported a record for April of 93 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1973 - Glenrock, WY, received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1976 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of an early season heat wave, and the Boston Marathon took place in 90 degree heat. At Providence RI the mercury hit 98 degrees. (David Ludlum)

 

1986: A major storm system produced ten tornadoes in Texas. One of these tornadoes virtually annihilated the town of Sweetwater. The tornado struck at the unlikely time of 7:17 am. One person was killed, and 100 were injured. 

1987 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s for Easter Sunday. Fort Smith AR reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms over the southeastern U.S. early in the day spawned a strong (F-3) tornado which destroyed seventeen homes and severely damaged thirty houses near Madison FL killing four persons and injuring eighteen others. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A dozen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 98 degrees at Hanksville UT equalled their record for April. Tucson AZ reported their earliest 100 degree reading of record. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Five cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and upper teens. Elkins WV reported a record low of 20 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Southern Plains produced golf ball size hail at San Angelo TX, and up to four inches of rain in southwestern Oklahoma. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996 - One of the most memorable tornado outbreaks in Illinois history occurred on April 19, 1996. During the day, 33 tornadoes were reported as supercells erupted and moved across the state during the afternoon and evening hours. Wind estimates in excess of 170 mph were associated with some of the stronger tornadoes, one of which ripped through nearby Ogden, IL. (University of Illinois WW2010)

2006: An intense spring snowstorm swept across the Dakotas, dumping up to 5 feet of snow. The heaviest snow fell in the Black Hills, with 59.4 inches at Lead, SD. Bowman, ND reported 18 inches. The storm closed highways including I-94 in North Dakota, cutting power to thousands and was responsible for at least four deaths. Further west, 1 to 3 feet of snow and 50 to 60 mph winds caused drifts up to 10 feet, widespread power outages, and livestock losses.

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1976)
NYC: 92 (1976)
LGA: 85 (2002)
JFK: 84 (1985)

 

Neverending heatwaves in 1976 and 2002 lol

1976 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of an early season heat wave, and the Boston Marathon took place in 90 degree heat. At Providence RI the mercury hit 98 degrees. (David Ludlum)

 

omg 98 degrees? see, we never get this kind of early April heat anymore lol

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, moving the ASOS under the trees in the 1990s has kept the 90° day count closer to 20. My guess is that if the ASOS was out in the open like before 1995, NYC would have had well over 40 days reaching 90° back in 2010 instead of only 37. So it’s the only site away from the immediate shore which has had a decrease in 90° days. The sea breeze at Newark has been slowing the rate of increase there relative to sites like Freehold-Marlboro which have avoided the sea breeze. Over 40 days reaching 90°has become the norm away from the sea breeze in NJ during the 2020s.
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJTEWR&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Chris, the oceans are acting as a check and regulating the high temperatures for us (somewhat at any rate).  Our decade for most number of 90 degree days was the 90s.  Or to be more precise, 1991 to 2002.  We haven't seen a consistently super hot summer since 2010 and before that it was 1993 that set all our records (and 1983 before that.)

I don't believe it's an accident or a fluke that we're seeing more seabreeze summers, this is the ocean's response to what we're doing to the climate.  The planet always seeks to find a balance.

 

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yep. Wunderground shows rain overhead and it’s sunny 

 

Nailed it

[Monty]

TV weather personalities are basically entertainers at this point. TV news has a format, it's somewhat interesting to me that the local news program still has the format of anchorman, just with more diversity. It's a well entrenched tradition.  The social media met is also more entertainment than depended upon forecaster. 

 

Otherwise I think meteorology will become more specialized/niche. Ag interests, airports, commodity. That's where humans will still have a role for a while. 

[Dark Star]

48 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

AI can only be so good as the data and observations that go into it. Less input data, more inaccuracy.

Clouds are holding back temps a bit here. Need them to thin out to get into the 70's here and 80's inland.

Media will always hire meteorologists to report the weather.  The field, as I found out, is VERY small, so I don't think people go into it necessarily think they can land a decent job (at least they shouldn't).  My one professor, Dr. Brotak even told us that back circa 1980.  By that time, it was too late to declare a minor in something else.  Dr. Brotak was let go a short time later.  We thought it was for being brutally honest, that there weren't many jobs in the field.

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 71, breeze blowing a bit and some breaks in the clouds approaching from C/E PA