April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

dry weather is really good for growing grapes and wine

1993 had some of our best, 2010 must be up there too.

all i care about is reservoir levels they are currently at 94% of capacity no worries about water restrictions this summer..

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don. we've been discussing a possible 1980 analog for the upcoming summer, what do you think? We haven't had a summer like that in a very long time!

 

I believe summer will be warmer than normal and potentially quite hot, but I'm not sure about 1980. 1980 followed a weak El Niño winter.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe summer will be warmer than normal and potentially quite hot, but I'm not sure about 1980. 1980 followed a weak El Niño winter.

it will be interesting to see what analogs can be used for this summer.

I can't think of any really hot sustainably hot summers following la ninas though.

Something more like 2011 maybe when July is historically hot and then it gets rainy and not as hot in August?

That la nina was stronger than this one.

Or 1995 when it's hot and dry (but not quite to the level of 1993 or 2010?)

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe summer will be warmer than normal and potentially quite hot, but I'm not sure about 1980. 1980 followed a weak El Niño winter.

The wet pattern to our west might mean a more humid but less hot summer if we get a westerly flow pattern (where downslope heats it up but humidity would help cap how hot the temps actually get). And a more southerly flow pattern which has been more common in recent years would mean more onshore flow. Of course temps/dewpoint more like 93/75 vs 100/68 would make the heat index and what people experience worse not better. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The wet pattern to our west might mean a more humid but less hot summer if we get a westerly flow pattern (where downslope heats it up but humidity would help cap how hot the temps actually get). And a more southerly flow pattern which has been more common in recent years would mean more onshore flow. Of course temps/dewpoint more like 93/75 vs 100/68 would make the heat index and what people experience worse not better. 

JM it depends on what kind of SW flow we are talking about.

Our best summers had a big Sonoran Heat Release.  This is why I was looking at 1980 for a comparable type pattern.

An extremely hot airmass coming out of the southwest will completely override any oceanic influence unless you're way out by the Hamptons or East End. Especially in July and August.

We've had record heat in the SW the last few years, so let's see if we can tap into that.

 

[psv88]

64 today

[Roger Smith]

Eastern states long overdue for a very hot summer and nobody would be surprised if it came in 2025. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

57 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Eastern states long overdue for a very hot summer and nobody would be surprised if it came in 2025. 

There are some indications that summer 2025 might be stormier with above normal temperatures but not over 27 90+ days at Central Park due to storminess and as others have said the tendency for winds on the drier days to be more southerly. In fact the long range Euro maps support this idea for 2025 but make summer 2026 the extremely hot summer with a drought.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

There are some indications that summer 2025 might be stormier with above normal temperatures but not over 27 90+ days at Central Park due to storminess and as others have said the tendency for winds on the drier days to be more southerly. In fact the long range Euro maps support this idea for 2025 but make summer 2026 the extremely hot summer with a drought.

WX/PT

I agree with your thinking on 90° or above days. I suspect NYC will finish 2025 with closer to 20 days than 27 days.

[SnoSki14]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with your thinking on 90° or above days. I suspect NYC will finish 2025 with closer to 20 days than 27 days.

Is there a reason for this? Its been dry, shouldn't temps over perform 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

FINALLY

last night was very cold and windy but today is just great and tomorrow will be too, NO CLOUDS

can you include sky cover forecasts too, warm weather is meaningless if it's cloudy or raining.

 

Starting to see the seasonal weakening of the jet stream so not as much wind or rain as the storms track through the Great Lakes. 

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is there a reason for this? Its been dry, shouldn't temps over perform 

If it stays dry through May and June, then there could be more.

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Starting to see the seasonal weakening of the jet stream so not as much wind or rain as the storms track through the Great Lakes. 

Yes I see 70s are forecast for all of next week after Monday so the warm season is definitely taking over now.

[jm1220]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes I see 70s are forecast for all of next week after Monday so the warm season is definitely taking over now.

Yep, looking warmer since we should have westerly flow for now. Have to always be aware of the turn on a dime to gunk with easterly wind this time of year though. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

There are some indications that summer 2025 might be stormier with above normal temperatures but not over 27 90+ days at Central Park due to storminess and as others have said the tendency for winds on the drier days to be more southerly. In fact the long range Euro maps support this idea for 2025 but make summer 2026 the extremely hot summer with a drought.

WX/PT

Maybe this means that we will have an el nino next winter, some of our hottest summers are after el ninos

1966, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1995, 2010 are some examples.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with your thinking on 90° or above days. I suspect NYC will finish 2025 with closer to 20 days than 27 days.

so closer to a normal summer for us then

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, looking warmer since we should have westerly flow for now. Have to always be aware of the turn on a dime to gunk with easterly wind this time of year though. 

Yes, it's still April lol... what I do like is no more cut off lows and days of rain, maybe that noreaster changed the pattern finally?

[Brian5671]

Vegetation will really pop now with the warmth and sun

[SACRUS]

 

 

55 / 32 sunny.  Mid 70s today.  Warmer tomorrow but clouds get in the way so stuck in low 80s at best in the warmer spots.  Front is mainly dry and cools us off for Easter but a pleasant low 60s.  Overall warmer week ahead and drier with up to 0.25 inches of rain.  Ridge into the east to close the month, turning the negative departures plus.

 

[wdrag]

I hope you all are aware that websites we access are slowly decreasing.  RCC's stopped today. This, because of government funding reduction. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (2002)
NYC: 96 (1976)
LGA: 91 (1976)
JFK: 86 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1943)
NYC: 25 (1875)
LGA: 35 (2014)
JFK: 35 (2003)


Historical:

1880 - More than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to Wisconsin and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65 persons at Marshfield MO. (David Ludlum)

1906 - A severe earthquake shook San Francisco, and unusual easterly winds spread fires destroying the city. (David Ludlum)

1944 - California experienced its worst hailstorm of record. Damage mounted to two million dollars as two consecutive storms devastated the Sacramento Valley destroying the fruit crop. (The Weather Channel)

1957 - A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air, and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it moved westward. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Rapid City, SD, received a record 22 inches of snow in 24 hours. (17th-18th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thirty-one cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including International Falls MN with a reading of 88 degrees, and Bismarck ND with a high of 92 degrees. A sharp cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds in Utah gusted to 99 mph at the Park City Angle Station, and capsized a boat on Utah Lake drowning four persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the southeastern U.S. A strong (F-2) tornado severely damaged seventeen mobile homes near Bainbridge GA injuring three persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. A thunderstorm in Pecos County of southwest Texas produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Imperial. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Heavy snow blanketed the west central valleys and southwest mountains of Colorado with up to 18 inches of snow. Nine cities from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date, including Fort Wayne IND with a reading of 23 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

A shift to dry the past week and going into next 

 

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with your thinking on 90° or above days. I suspect NYC will finish 2025 with closer to 20 days than 27 days.

Will it be closer to 20 because it won't be that hot or because Central Park is notorious for recording many 89 degree days while everyone else is in the 90s?

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Will it be closer to 20 because it won't be that hot or because Central Park is notorious for recording many 89 degree days while everyone else is in the 90s?

Yes that's a good point it would be funny if JFK had more 90 degree days lol.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

A shift to dry the past week and going into next 

 

the ring of fire getting established this week.

1993 had a similar pattern to this, record flooding in St Louis, historic heat for us.

[psv88]

31 this morning. Undoubtedly the last freeze until the fall. Decently late 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (2002)
NYC: 96 (1976)
LGA: 91 (1976)
JFK: 86 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1943)
NYC: 25 (1875)
LGA: 35 (2014)
JFK: 35 (2003)


Historical:

1880 - More than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to Wisconsin and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65 persons at Marshfield MO. (David Ludlum)

1906 - A severe earthquake shook San Francisco, and unusual easterly winds spread fires destroying the city. (David Ludlum)

1944 - California experienced its worst hailstorm of record. Damage mounted to two million dollars as two consecutive storms devastated the Sacramento Valley destroying the fruit crop. (The Weather Channel)

1957 - A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air, and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it moved westward. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Rapid City, SD, received a record 22 inches of snow in 24 hours. (17th-18th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thirty-one cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including International Falls MN with a reading of 88 degrees, and Bismarck ND with a high of 92 degrees. A sharp cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds in Utah gusted to 99 mph at the Park City Angle Station, and capsized a boat on Utah Lake drowning four persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the southeastern U.S. A strong (F-2) tornado severely damaged seventeen mobile homes near Bainbridge GA injuring three persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. A thunderstorm in Pecos County of southwest Texas produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Imperial. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Heavy snow blanketed the west central valleys and southwest mountains of Colorado with up to 18 inches of snow. Nine cities from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date, including Fort Wayne IND with a reading of 23 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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Posted 16 minutes ago

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (2002)
NYC: 96 (1976)
LGA: 91 (1976)
JFK: 86 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1943)
NYC: 25 (1875)
LGA: 35 (2014)
JFK: 35 (2003)

 

It's amazing how the heat in 2002 in April coincided with 1976 but the summers were radically different (even though both were followed by el ninos the following winter).

 

35 for a low on this date in 2003 is pretty shocking for JFK

April 1875 which we've talked about before was a real outlier....

and wow a dust devil in MA?

1957 - A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air, and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it moved westward. (The Weather Channel)

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 64 already here.

[SACRUS]

3 years ago it was near freezing on this day night time lows in the low 30s.  Last year we went from low 80s on the 15th back to the 50s.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I hope you all are aware that websites we access are slowly decreasing.  RCC's stopped today. This, because of government funding reduction. 

We're already seeing this now =\

I tried to look up low temperatures for airports on wunderground, here was the result

FRG (Farmingdale) redirects to JFK

FOK (Westhampton) and Shirley (HWV) redirects to ISP

MJX (Toms River) redirects to ACY

BLM (Belmar) redirects to EWR

MPO (Mt Pocono) redirects to Avoca

So I can't find the low at either FOK or MJX, which are our radiational cooling champions.