April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I found a wx map for Apr 16 1849, looks like NYC may have seen some snow or sleet showers in a very cool NW flow,  but the s.e. coastal snow was associated with a low off the coast that did not move n.e., it weakened and the cold n.w. flow continued over NYC region for two days. Probably 4/16/1849 was close to 39/29 .05" prec 0.1" snow. NW 20-35. 

A strong cold front moved off the East Coast on April 15th with snow being reported in parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The stage was then set for an Interior snowstorm during April 18-20. During that storm, Litchfield County in Connecticut picked up 6" (15.2 cm) of snow. The Catskills saw two feet (61.0 cm).

[bluewave]

Heading into a warmer and drier pattern to close out the month. 
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

46 / 28  and clear. Sunniest day in a while and highs into the low 60s.  Warmer Friday +10 to the low 70s and add more Saturday to low 80s in the warmer spots but clouds may spoil the afternoon.  Dry Easter and cooler to the 60s.  Overall warmer than normal and drier pattern to close the month with around 0.25 in the forecast between 4/17 and 4/24.

[Roger Smith]

14 hours ago, Monty said:

Where do you find something like that?

NOAA now has maps going back to 1836. They are available on the weather forum wetterzentrale.de and here's a link to Apr 16, 1849 at 12z. (click on archives at wetterzentrale's home page).  Toronto wx data (starts 1840) indicates very cold air mass, 29/16 and 1.5" snow on Apr 15, 30/20 dry on Apr 16. Caswell in Providence RI recorded 24F as low for Apr 16 and near 37F for a max, no precip noted and says "clothes on line froze in a strong NW wind." Low DonS references gave 1.05" rain there Apr 17-18, 40s F. 

http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1849&maand=04&dag=16&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Heading into a warmer and drier pattern to close out the month. 
 

 

FINALLY

last night was very cold and windy but today is just great and tomorrow will be too, NO CLOUDS

can you include sky cover forecasts too, warm weather is meaningless if it's cloudy or raining.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

NOAA now has maps going back to 1836. They are available on the weather forum wetterzentrale.de and here's a link to Apr 16, 1849 at 12z. (click on archives at wetterzentrale's home page).  Toronto wx data (starts 1840) indicates very cold air mass, 29/16 and 1.5" snow on Apr 15, 30/20 dry on Apr 16. Caswell in Providence RI recorded 24F as low for Apr 16 and near 37F for a max, no precip noted and says "clothes on line froze in a strong NW wind." Low DonS references gave 1.05" rain there Apr 17-18, 40s F. 

http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1849&maand=04&dag=16&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

can you estimate snowfall for new york city going all the back to 1836 using these maps Roger?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

46 / 28  and clear. Sunniest day in a while and highs into the low 60s.  Warmer Friday +10 to the low 70s and add more Saturday to low 80s in the warmer spots but clouds may spoil the afternoon.  Dry Easter and cooler to the 60s.  Overall warmer than normal and drier pattern to close the month with around 0.25 in the forecast between 4/17 and 4/24.

today nice and sunny and tomorrow looks like a repeat

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

This has been a hellish spring. The cold wind and constantly dreary skies have been relentless. Every week people keeping saying this is the last cold day wash rinse repeat the following week. 

it almost makes one root on CC lol

[LibertyBell]

Lyrid meteor shower tonight, great sky conditions for it.

[winterwx21]

Deep blue sky and not a cloud. 60 feels a little cool with the breeze, but a STUNNING day. It feels great doing some work outside today. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Lyrid meteor shower tonight, great sky conditions for it.

The peak of the meteor shower is Monday night, but unfortunately it looks cloudy then. So it's a good idea to check it out tonight with the perfect sky conditions. Should be able to see a few. 

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Deep blue sky and not a cloud. 60 feels a little cool with the breeze, but a STUNNING day. It feels great doing some work outside today. 

Euro is basically dry the next 8 days or so

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is basically dry the next 8 days or so

Yeah, most guidance is rather dry for the next week to 10 days.  Latest Drought Monitor shows improvement but still not ideal.  We could go backwards with a renewed dry spell.  Especially if weather turns unseasonably warm.  Dryness mostly would affect ag interests initially as we head into the growing season.  For now through all is ok.  Just have to watch for any long stretches of dryness.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Yeah, most guidance is rather dry for the next week to 10 days.  Latest Drought Monitor shows improvement but still not ideal.  We could go backwards with a renewed dry spell.  Especially if weather turns unseasonably warm.  Dryness mostly would affect ag interests initially as we head into the growing season.  For now through all is ok.  Just have to watch for any long stretches of dryness.

dry spells are fine, as long as it's not a severe drought it's good.  I hate excessive rainfall all it does is cause bugs to multiply and pisses me off lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Yeah, most guidance is rather dry for the next week to 10 days.  Latest Drought Monitor shows improvement but still not ideal.  We could go backwards with a renewed dry spell.  Especially if weather turns unseasonably warm.  Dryness mostly would affect ag interests initially as we head into the growing season.  For now through all is ok.  Just have to watch for any long stretches of dryness.

dry weather is really good for growing grapes and wine

1993 had some of our best, 2010 must be up there too.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Deep blue sky and not a cloud. 60 feels a little cool with the breeze, but a STUNNING day. It feels great doing some work outside today. 

Yes the perfect day! I'm good with 6 days a week like this and 1 day a week of rain.

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

dry weather is really good for growing grapes and wine

1993 had some of our best, 2010 must be up there too.

I think @Big Jims Videos last year posted a story about that from his work with News 12 NJ about how 2 years from now the NJ wine will be awesome, or something like that.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

I think @Big Jims Videos last year posted a story about that from his work with News 12 NJ about how 2 years from now the NJ wine will be awesome, or something like that.

I have to check that out, I'm interested in stuff like that-- eastern Long Island has some of the best wineries east of the west coast lol. Central NJ does too I'm sure.

 

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I have to check that out, I'm interested in stuff like that-- eastern Long Island has some of the best wineries east of the west coast lol.

 

Agree, some of the LI wine I've had over the years has been terrific.  I found this from NBC, maybe I was getting him confused with this.

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories-weather/new-jersey-drought-wine/4016245/

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Agree, some of the LI wine I've had over the years has been terrific.  I found this from NBC, maybe I was getting him confused with this.

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories-weather/new-jersey-drought-wine/4016245/

The 2024 harvest for South Jersey wineries will be one of the best in history.

“This is going to be probably the best harvest as far as quality we’ve ever seen here in New Jersey,” said Larry Sharrott, owner of Sharrott Winery.

The lack of rainfall led to higher quality fruit, which will lead to more premium wines.

Sharrott told NBC10 that they haven’t seen much rain at his Hammonton, Atlantic County, in a few months. “By my estimation, on this site, we’re probably 5 to 6 inches behind,” he said.

The lack of rainfall led to higher quality fruit, which will lead to more premium wines.

“It helps us concentrate our fruit flavors, increases sugar concentration, so you get these really lush beautiful wines,” Sharrott said. “We want them to be moisture starved throughout the season because that actually improves the color intensity.”

 

wow, it would be interesting to find a list of other great years for east coast wine.  Hot and dry would do it.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Top of the line spring day today. Just finished a 5 mile hike. Living on the south shore really makes you appreciate any real spring weather as we often skip right to summer…

[Sundog]

Give me today every day through the end of June. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Give me today every day through the end of June. 

not warm enough here-nice day but still cool in the shade or when the wind blows.    Need 75

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Top of the line spring day today. Just finished a 5 mile hike. Living on the south shore really makes you appreciate any real spring weather as we often skip right to summer…

Good to see no cold wind off the ocean today.

 

[Sundog]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

not warm enough here-nice day but still cool in the shade or when the wind blows.    Need 75

 

75 too hot. You need AC indoors if it's sunny and 75 outside this time of year. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

75 too hot. You need AC indoors if it's sunny and 75 outside this time of year. 

Not in the burbs if it's low humidity

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, the mercury rose into the lower 60s in the New York City area. It will turn even warmer tomorrow.

The temperature will rise into the middle and perhaps upper 60s in the New York City area and lower 70s in Philadelphia.

Saturday will be unseasonably warm with readings soaring into the upper 70s to near 80° in the New York City. The warmest spots will see temperatures top out in the lower 80s.

The mild weather will continue into at least the start of next week, although Monday could be briefly cooler. It will also remain mainly dry into at least early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -10.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.028 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.1° (0.6° below normal).

 

[Roger Smith]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

can you estimate snowfall for new york city going all the back to 1836 using these maps Roger?

The maps alone would be sketchy at best, but we also have some other clues from obs elsewhere, I would imagine the cold NW flow was good for a few snow showers and then the organized event by Apr 17-18 was likely a cold rain in present NYC metro and wet snow in n NJ and lower elevations se NY.  

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under brilliant sunshine, the mercury rose into the lower 60s in the New York City area. It will turn even warmer tomorrow.

The temperature will rise into the middle and perhaps upper 60s in the New York City area and lower 70s in Philadelphia.

Saturday will be unseasonably warm with readings soaring into the upper 70s to near 80° in the New York City. The warmest spots will see temperatures top out in the lower 80s.

The mild weather will continue into at least the start of next week, although Monday could be briefly cooler. It will also remain mainly dry into at least early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -10.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.028 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.1° (0.6° below normal).

 

Don. we've been discussing a possible 1980 analog for the upcoming summer, what do you think? We haven't had a summer like that in a very long time!

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

75 too hot. You need AC indoors if it's sunny and 75 outside this time of year. 

as long as it's above 50 and blue skies and no onshore wind I'm happy lol.