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April 2025 Discussion/Obs


Rjay
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Morris NJ-

526 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT

FOR NORTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTY...

At 525 PM EDT, a shower capable of producing damaging winds was located over Kinnelon, or near Pompton Lakes, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is

         possible.

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Somewhat cooler air will move into the region tonight. Highs tomorrow will reach the lower 50s in New York City and then upper 50s on Thursday.

Milder air will likely return to end the week. Saturday could be unseasonably warm with readings soaring into the 70s in the New York City area. Some of the warmer spots in New Jersey could approach or reach 80°. The mild weather will continue into at least the start of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +3.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.383 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.0° (0.7° below normal).

 

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57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Convection produced and more in line with a STW instead of a widespread multi hour wind event. That’s what I think the NWS was going for. 

This was not any kind of advisory event.  We had like 2 hours of occasionally gusty winds and they died down before sunset.

I think the winds gusted like once every 10 minutes for 2 hours.  Not even 50 mph here, maybe 40, but even that's pushing it.

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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

nice downsloping winds

Looks like the cutter next week won’t be as strong. So our next run on 80° this weekend won’t be followed by such strong winds. Then another chance of approaching  80° next week. So improving spring conditions going forward. 
 

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IMG_3420.thumb.png.bb60770a288b4632c05fa09bfff10f93.png

 

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47 / 27 cloudy and breezy.  Coolest of the next 7 days.  Should get more clearing into the afternoon but another cloudy morning.  Overall warmer Thu and very warm Fri/Sat and enough sun gets the warmest spot to mid 80s on Saturday.  Dry and pleasant but a touch cooler Easter Sunday and into the Monday.  Overall riding into the east to close the month warmer than normal.  Drier week ahead with only up to or less than 0.25 forecast between 4/16 and 4/23.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2002)
NYC: 92 (2002)
LGA: 89 (2002)
JFK: 86 (2003)


Lows:

EWR: 26 (1943)
NYC: 29 (1928)
LGA: 31 (1943)
JFK: 32 (2014)


Historical:
 

1849: Charleston, South Carolina recorded their latest freeze ever with a temperature of 32 degrees while 6 inches of snow fell at Wilmington, North Carolina. Snow fell as far south as Milledgeville, Georgia. A damaging hard freeze occurred from Texas to Georgia devastating the cotton crop. 

 

1851: "The Lighthouse Storm" of 1851 struck New England on this date. Heavy gales and high seas pounded the coasts of New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts. The storm arrived at the time of a full moon, and high tide was producing unusually high storm tides. The storm was so named because it destroyed the lighthouse at Cohasset, Massachusetts. Two assistant lighthouse keepers were killed there when the structure was swept away by the storm tide.

1851 - The famous "Lighthouse Storm" raged near Boston Harbor. Whole gales and gigantic waves destroyed Minot Light with its two keepers still inside. The storm resulted in great shipping losses and coastal erosion. (David Ludlum)

1880 - A tornado near Marshall, MO, carried the heavy timbers of an entire home a distance of twelve miles. (The Weather Channel)

1933 - Franklin Lake, NH, was buried under 35 inches of snow. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1960 - A wind gust of 70 mph was measured at the Stapleton International Airport in Denver CO, their highest wind gust of record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A slow moving storm system produced heavy rain over North Carolina and the Middle Atlantic Coast States. More than six inches of rain drenched parts of Virginia, and flooding in Virginia claimed three lives. Floodwaters along the James River inundated parts of Richmond VA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced a foot of snow at Pittsburg VT. Severe thunderstorms produced baseball size hail and spawned five tornadoes in the Southern High Plains Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A cold front, ushering sharply colder air into the north central U.S., brought snow to parts of Montana and North Dakota. At midday the temperature at Cutbank MT was just 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced large hail and damaging winds across Oklahoma, with 99 reports of large hail and damaging winds during the evening and early nighttime hours. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Carney, and wind gusts to 100 mph in the Oklahoma City area which swept away many Federal tax returns being transported from a mail cart to a waiting truck about the time of the midnight deadline. Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City reported a record wind gust of 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This was not any kind of advisory event.  We had like 2 hours of occasionally gusty winds and they died down before sunset.

I think the winds gusted like once every 10 minutes for 2 hours.  Not even 50 mph here, maybe 40, but even that's pushing it.

Very unique, at least from my observation.  The wind seemed stronger along the tree tops, but did not translate the same way down to the surface?

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51 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Very unique, at least from my observation.  The wind seemed stronger along the tree tops, but did not translate the same way down to the surface?

That's very interesting. I have seen this before and it causes a lot of tree damage where the winds are strong.

Well, it's windy today (around 40 mph).

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