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April 2025 Discussion/Obs

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

4-16-2014 was our latest freeze in a VERY long time, we might not have had a later freeze in my lifetime, can you check to see when we had a later freeze than that, Chris? And since LGA is the local hotspot, I'm sure the lows at JFK, NYC and EWR were all colder than 32!!

 

It was the latest in NYC since 1980.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1891 05-06 (1891) 32 11-04 (1891) 30 181
1874 04-30 (1874) 32 11-12 (1874) 32 195
1919 04-26 (1919) 31 11-14 (1919) 30 201
1892 04-25 (1892) 32 11-11 (1892) 32 199
1888 04-25 (1888) 31 11-17 (1888) 30 205
1930 04-24 (1930) 31 11-06 (1930) 31 195
1872 04-23 (1872) 29 11-16 (1872) 30 206
1875 04-22 (1875) 28 11-02 (1875) 31 193
1925 04-21 (1925) 32 10-29 (1925) 31 190
1922 04-21 (1922) 32 11-21 (1922) 32 213
1926 04-20 (1926) 28 11-04 (1926) 31 197
1904 04-20 (1904) 27 10-31 (1904) 32 193
1897 04-20 (1897) 24 11-18 (1897) 32 211
1890 04-19 (1890) 30 11-21 (1890) 31 215
1887 04-19 (1887) 29 10-30 (1887) 32 193
1980 04-17 (1980) 32 11-16 (1980) 32 212
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215
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IrishRob17
IrishRob17

Over performer IMBY.  I have to measure, and might have to get out my snow shovel again, wasn't expecting to have to shovel. I figured it would be a mostly grass/car topper event here. 

MJO812
MJO812

My friend sent me this from the Catskills

MJO812
MJO812

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was the latest in NYC since 1980.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1891 05-06 (1891) 32 11-04 (1891) 30 181
1874 04-30 (1874) 32 11-12 (1874) 32 195
1919 04-26 (1919) 31 11-14 (1919) 30 201
1892 04-25 (1892) 32 11-11 (1892) 32 199
1888 04-25 (1888) 31 11-17 (1888) 30 205
1930 04-24 (1930) 31 11-06 (1930) 31 195
1872 04-23 (1872) 29 11-16 (1872) 30 206
1875 04-22 (1875) 28 11-02 (1875) 31 193
1925 04-21 (1925) 32 10-29 (1925) 31 190
1922 04-21 (1922) 32 11-21 (1922) 32 213
1926 04-20 (1926) 28 11-04 (1926) 31 197
1904 04-20 (1904) 27 10-31 (1904) 32 193
1897 04-20 (1897) 24 11-18 (1897) 32 211
1890 04-19 (1890) 30 11-21 (1890) 31 215
1887 04-19 (1887) 29 10-30 (1887) 32 193
1980 04-17 (1980) 32 11-16 (1980) 32 212
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215

wow so that 1-1.5 inches (AT JFK) snow event we had on 4-19/20-1983 happened with the temperatures above freezing, Chris?

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was the latest in NYC since 1980.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1891 05-06 (1891) 32 11-04 (1891) 30 181
1874 04-30 (1874) 32 11-12 (1874) 32 195
1919 04-26 (1919) 31 11-14 (1919) 30 201
1892 04-25 (1892) 32 11-11 (1892) 32 199
1888 04-25 (1888) 31 11-17 (1888) 30 205
1930 04-24 (1930) 31 11-06 (1930) 31 195
1872 04-23 (1872) 29 11-16 (1872) 30 206
1875 04-22 (1875) 28 11-02 (1875) 31 193
1925 04-21 (1925) 32 10-29 (1925) 31 190
1922 04-21 (1922) 32 11-21 (1922) 32 213
1926 04-20 (1926) 28 11-04 (1926) 31 197
1904 04-20 (1904) 27 10-31 (1904) 32 193
1897 04-20 (1897) 24 11-18 (1897) 32 211
1890 04-19 (1890) 30 11-21 (1890) 31 215
1887 04-19 (1887) 29 10-30 (1887) 32 193
1980 04-17 (1980) 32 11-16 (1980) 32 212
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215

Interesting no 4/20 or later freeze since 1930 lol

We don't get many October freezes anymore either.

When was the last time we had a freeze before 10/20, Chris? Not in my lifetime either.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Daylight: 

13 H: 13 M

Sunrise: 6:20 AM  DST
Sunset : 7:34 PM DST

Roughly equivalent to Aug 29

 

Gained : 3H 58M from the Dec 21 lull

Adding an additional 2m36/34  seconds of daylight each day the next week

Good news, Tony, over the past hour the sun has been coming out and I see patches of blue skies :)

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2023)
NYC: 90 (1923)
LGA: 89 (2023)
JFK: 85 (2023)

Lows:

EWR: 26 (1940)
NYC: 25 (1874)
LGA: 31 (1950)
JFK: 30 (1950)

HIstorical:

1877 - The second coastal storm in just three days hit Virginia and the Carolinas. The first storm flattened the sand dunes at Hatteras, and widened the Oregon inlet three quarters of a mile. The second storm produced hurricane force winds along the coast of North Carolina causing more beach erosion and land transformation. (David Ludlum)

 

1927: A tornado wiped out the town of Rock Springs Texas, killing 72 persons and causing 1.2 million dollars damage. The tornado was more than one mile in width and destroyed 235 of 247 buildings, leaving no trace of lumber or contents in many cases. Many survivors were bruised by large hail that fell after the passage of the tornado.  

 

1934: Winds atop Mount Washington New Hampshire, averaged 186 mph for five minutes, with a peak gust of 231 mph, the highest wind speed ever clocked in the world at that time.  In a report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), that record was toppled in 1996 at Barrow Island, Australia during Typhoon Olivia. The new world record is now 253 mph. The 316 mph wind speed recorded at Moore, Oklahoma on 5/3/1999 logged during an F5 tornado was not recorded at ground level.

 

1945: A series of significant tornadoes raked Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Antlers, Oklahoma were nearly obliterated by a massive F5 tornado that zigzagged from southwest to northeast across the town. 69 people died in the twister. Another tornado killed eight people in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The disaster was overshadowed by the loss of President Franklin Roosevelt, who died suddenly at his vacation home at Warm Springs, Georgia. 

1955 - The town of Axis, AL, was deluged with 20.33 inches of rain in 24 hours establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A major spring storm quickly intensified bringing blizzard conditions to much of the Northern Plains Region. Up to 18 inches of snow was reported in North Dakota, and in South Dakota, winds gusting to 90 mph whipped the snow into drifts fifteen feet high. Livestock losses were in the millions of dollars, and for some areas it was the worst blizzard ever. (Storm Data)

1987 - Thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 98 mph at the Killeen Airport causing a million dollars property damage. Two airplanes were totally destroyed by the high winds, and ten others were damaged. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Atlantic coast produced high winds across North Carolina, with gusts to 78 mph reported at Waves. The high winds combined with high tides to cause coastal flooding and erosion. About 275 feet of land was eroded from the northern tip of Pea Island. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms in central Florida produced golf ball size hail and a tornado near Lakeland FL. Fair and mild weather prevailed across most of the rest of the nation. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in central Oklahoma and north central Texas. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced up to six inches of golf ball size hail along I-40 near El Reno, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Okarche. Thunderstorms over north central Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Rotan, and high winds which injured two persons southeast of Itasca. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - The latest measurable snowfall on record hits Jackson, TN, causing six traffic fatalities.

2006 - The University of Iowa campus is hit by an F2 tornado. The storm severely damaged many buildings in the area, including a sorority and a local church. No fatailities were reported in the storm that caused more than $12 million in damage.

so close to 90 on this date just two years ago

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2023)
NYC: 90 (1923)
LGA: 89 (2023)
JFK: 85 (2023)

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February 2015 was a one-off type event that we won’t see again absent some massive volcanic eruption dramatically cooling the earths climate. 

Chris was the negative temperature anomaly greater in February 2015 than it was in January 2004 and January 1994 and December 1989 (I know that's going back aways lol)?

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

49 / 40 cloudy.  Drying out and we;ll see if clouds can clear out mostly by sunset.  Back to the 50s / near 60.  Much warm Mon / Tue before front comes in. Warming back up by Easter weekend as it looks now.  Ridging into the east to close the last 9 days of the month.  Rain this week <.50 .

vis_nj_anim.gif

Bright and sunny here with the sun in the south :-)

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Looking ahead to May, April has a pretty strong correlation with May's temperatures (0.32 coefficient of determination). That relationship is more than twice as strong as that for March.

image.png.935f2435f16bc61b0a04ce9339cdadf2.png

However, that means that other variables explain 68% of May's temperatures. Therefore, the current cool start to April and possible cool monthly anomaly doesn't necessarily mean that May will wind up cooler than normal in the New York City area.

So far, latest CFSv2 guidance is suggesting near normal to somewhat warmer than normal conditions for May. The ECMWF Monthly forecast run earlier this month showed a similar idea.

image.png.3c79a9c125fd52bf2108f4449e02343c.png

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I just don't remember it being all that cold this late aside from the May 2020 event.  We don't even get a freeze after April 10th anymore aside from the April 16th very late freeze in 2014.   I think JFK's latest freeze on record is either April 19 or 20th.

I bet there are a bunch more 33s or even 34s being recorded now than there were before, when the temp would have registered as a 32 instead. 

Basically we're missing freezing by a a degree or two when in the past it would have been 32 or 31. 

I'm wondering if anyone has the stats to confirm that. 

 

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I just don't remember it being all that cold this late aside from the May 2020 event.  We don't even get a freeze after April 10th anymore aside from the April 16th very late freeze in 2014.   I think JFK's latest freeze on record is either April 19 or 20th.

JFK:  Latest April 16, 2014 : 32 degrees / Earliest October 19, 1976 : 31 dgrees

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Rain totals from Fri/Sat

LGA: 0.97
EWR: 1.02
JFK: 1.02
NYC: 1.05
TTN: 1.38

 

Event total here was 1.55" with 1.5" snow.  We've made good drought progress over the last several weeks.  Most of the area should be in the abnormally dry or D0 classification on the Drought Monitor that comes out this coming Thursday. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be somewhat warmer than normal before another surge of cooler air moves into the region by the middle of the week. Milder air will likely return to end the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +4.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.029 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.6° (1.2° below normal).

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Sundog said:

I bet there are a bunch more 33s or even 34s being recorded now than there were before, when the temp would have registered as a 32 instead. 

Basically we're missing freezing by a a degree or two when in the past it would have been 32 or 31. 

I'm wondering if anyone has the stats to confirm that. 

 

 

it reminds me of Central Park's 88s or 89s that should be 90+ lol

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