qg_omega Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Snow tonight??? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 5:49 PM, bluewave said: It would be cool if you knew someone in one of these towers that would let you come over during high wind events.While I wouldn’t want to experience it all the time, it would be interesting to see what it was like at least once. Almost reminds me of one of those theme park attractions. I actually had a fiend who lived in the West End of Long Beach in a 2nd story unit which was built on lally columns. His ceiling lamp would sway and he had creaking noises when the winds went over 50mph. https://www.dezeen.com/2021/02/05/floods-and-high-winds-plague-residents-of-rafael-vinolys-432-park-avenue/ Expand lol I wonder what they were doing in that earthquake we had last year around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 radar says the wetter models are probably correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 6:13 PM, forkyfork said: radar says the wetter models are probably correct Expand i'll be in Liberty tonight, hopefully we get inch or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 nature has a chance to do the funniest thing tomorrow 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 6:37 PM, forkyfork said: nature has a chance to do the funniest thing tomorrow Expand Thunder sleet in April? That would just be laughing in our pathetic faces. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 6:40 PM, jm1220 said: Thunder sleet in April? That would just be laughing in our pathetic faces. Expand What would this storm have done had it happened in either January or February?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 6:44 PM, LibertyBell said: What would this storm have done had it happened in either January or February?? Expand it would have found a way to rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 6:44 PM, LibertyBell said: What would this storm have done had it happened in either January or February?? Expand It’s occluding with a wide fetch off the ocean, with rotting cold air aloft. Would probably have been snow to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 4:41 PM, Brian5671 said: Areas that get heavy rates have a chance...Crazy for 4/12 Expand Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’. But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 7:05 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’. But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one. Expand Looking for very late season comparisons what do you think of 4/19-20/1983 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 7:05 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’. But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one. Expand I wonder if it would still be snowing after daybreak so we can actually see snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 7:05 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’. But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one. Expand Well the hi-res RGEM printed out 13" for me at 12z so there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 7:51 PM, LibertyBell said: Looking for very late season comparisons what do you think of 4/19-20/1983 ? Expand No clue. I was 1. Would have to see the historical data especially low placement and strength. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 A cold rain will develop this evening or early tonight and continue into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 40s in New York City area tomorrow. Some sleet pellets are possible outside New York City. Across parts of Central New York State and central New England, wet snow is possible. An appreciable snowfall is possible in higher elevations. Where areas remain above freezing, snowfall amounts will be limited. The temperature could approach seasonable levels on Sunday and then briefly go above normal early next week. However, before the warmth could become established, another surge of cooler air will push into the region by the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +25.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.151 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5° (1.2° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 WWA posted for part of Uptons area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 No thread at this time but Thunder snow possible for NNJ as previous flash density shows. My guess is that parts of the 5 boroughs will see wet snow, sleet or small hail tomorrow morning. Trace at CP? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 8:54 PM, donsutherland1 said: A cold rain will develop this evening or early tonight and continue into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 40s in New York City area tomorrow. Some sleet pellets are possible outside New York City. Across parts of Central New York State and central New England, wet snow is possible. An appreciable snowfall is possible in higher elevations. Where areas remain above freezing, snowfall amounts will be limited. The temperature could approach seasonable levels on Sunday and then briefly go above normal early next week. However, before the warmth could become established, another surge of cooler air will push into the region by the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +25.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.151 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5° (1.2° below normal). Expand I think more than a sleet pellet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 HRRR has some snow to the coast 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Pouring right now in SW Nassua, I guess this system does have some decent dynamics. Let’s see how much we cool the column overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 10:54 PM, MJO812 said: HRRR has some snow to the coast Expand no it doesn't 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 there might be flakes in the air but central park isn't getting 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/11/2025 at 11:50 PM, forkyfork said: there might be flakes in the air but central park isn't getting 3" Expand Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 I like how it took until mid April not to have a sneaky mid level warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Where I am maybe there’ll be a snow/rain mix for a while if we can get the column to cool down, maybe very off chance at a slushy coating if it completely changes over. Regardless I want this horrid stretch to end and for some sustained warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 On 4/11/2025 at 10:03 PM, qg_omega said: I think more than a sleet pellet Expand Depends where one is. If one is at White Plains and northward, there could be a coating. Within 10-20 miles of the City, some sleet might mix in, but there very likely won't be any accumulations. Both the 18z NAM and 18z GFS are very likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Legit might be stuck in the 30s tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 The radar is reminding me of a classic noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 On 4/12/2025 at 12:50 AM, Sundog said: The radar is reminding me of a classic noreaster Expand The radar looks like it should be snowing 2” an hour right now. It has that exact texture. Because at beam hight it’s all snow. Snow levels probably currently between 1500-2000’ feet based on surface temps. That terrace I was talking about at 1500’ will be covered in several inches in the morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 On 4/12/2025 at 1:29 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The radar looks like it should be snowing 2” an hour right now. It has that exact texture. Because at beam hight it’s all snow. Snow levels probably currently between 1500-2000’ feet based on surface temps. That terrace I was talking about at 1500’ will be covered in several inches in the morning. Expand Looks like about 2500 ft over NYC/LI, 1500 ft over CT from the beam height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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