April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[bluewave]

There has been a shift in the the tropical cyclone tracks since the 1990s. From the late 1930s into the early 1990s the hurricanes were being directed further up the coast due to the weaker ridge near and to the north of New England. This is why Hurricane Bob in 1991 was the last hurricane to cross the coast in New England. Also the reason the last hurricane to cross the coast on Long Island was Gloria in 1985. There hasn’t been a major hurricane landfall north of Florida or Georgia since 1996. All the major hurricane landfalls  since 1996 have been in the Gulf and the East Coast of Florida.

My guess is that the much stronger ridge east of New England which has resulted in the stronger summer onshore flow and higher dewpoints has been steering most of the tropical activity to our south. Even Sandy curved into SNJ instead of crossing the coast further north on Long Island or Eastern New England. So it will be interesting to see how much longer this steering pattern continues.

 

 

[MJO812]

Looks like we will warmup  after the storm next weekend

[SACRUS]

 

After an overnight high of 59 here only 48 during the day. 0.09 of rain.

[Sundog]

I'm ok with all tropical activity being a far miss. 

[Stormlover74]

Someone's going to get some heavy rain in a couple hours 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I'm ok with all tropical activity being a far miss. 

We have been getting hit with remnants which caused havoc.

[steve392]

An absolute deluge out right now. Been pouring for over an hour already. 

 

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive gradient to our south this morning with morning lows above 70° in Delaware. Those 850 mb temperatures  just over+16C are close to the record. But with the front on the move south the strongest warmth will shift south this afternoon.

 

[SACRUS]

 

45 / 45 clouds and some drizzle.  More of the same today, 10 degrees warmer than Saturday with low - mid 50s.   Lingering clouds and showers Monday.  See some sun on Tue and Wed but both days cooler as trough moves into the northeast.  Clouds by Thuesday with rain again Friday into the next weekend 4/12 - 4/14.   A bit warmer by mid month but nothing currently indicating a sustained warmer pattern.  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2023)
NYC: 80 (2023)
LGA: 80 (1947)
JFK: 74 (2023)


Lows:

EWR: 17 (1982)  Blizzard
NYC: 21 (1982)
LGA: 22 (1982)
JFK: 20 (1982)

Historical:

 

1936 - A tornado outbreak in the Deep South resulted in a total of 446 deaths and eighteen million dollars damage. It was a "Tale of Two Cities". During the evening of the 5th a tornado hit Tupelo MS killing 216 persons, injuring 700 others, and causing three million dollars damage. The next morning the paths of two tornadoes met about 8:30 AM and cut a swath four blocks wide through Gainesville GA killing 203 persons, injuring 934, and causing thirteen million dollars damage. Eight to ten feet of debris filled the streets following the storm. At least 70 persons died in the Cooper Pants Factory, the greatest tornado toll of record for a single building. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1983 - The temperature at Denver, CO, dipped to a record cold seven degrees above zero. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Rain and melting snow caused flooding from New England to Ohio. Flooding in the Merrimack Valley of Massacusetts was the worst in fifty years, causing forty-two million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm produced wind gusts to 75 mph around Chicago, IL, and wind gusts to 92 mph at Goshen IN. The high winds created twenty-five foot waves on Lake Michigan. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in California. Afternoon highs of 91 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, 93 degrees at San Jose, 98 degrees at San Diego, 103 degrees at Santa Maria, 104 degrees at Riverside, and 106 degrees in Downtown Los Angeles established records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Snow developed in the northeastern U.S. for the second time in the month. In Virginia, a heavy wet snow blanketed northern and central sections of the Shenandoah Valley, and eastern foothills, with up to 12 inches reported around Harrisonburg. Heavy snow also blanketed the high elevations of West Virginia, with 10 inches reported at Snowshoe. An inch of snow at Syracuse NY raised their total for the winter season to a record-tying 161.3 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Thunderstorms erupted and produced severe weather including 32 reports of tornadoes, most of which touched down in Mississippi and Louisiana. Between 20 and 25 homes were destroyed and 7 people were injured. Mississippi governor Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency (CNN).

[SACRUS]

 

NYC

April 6, 1982 : 9.6 inches of snow

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

 

1982 

NYC:

https://abc7ny.com/blizzard-of-1982-spring-april-6-snow-storm/6081823/

NJ:

https://www.app.com/picture-gallery/news/history/2025/04/02/nj-weather-snowstorm-april-1982-snowstorm-new-jersey/82774409007/

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/04/07/nyregion/rare-april-blizzard-punishes-metropolitan-new-york.html

[Dark Star]

13 hours ago, lee59 said:

The strongest wind recorded in NYC was from hurricane Hazel as it passed hundreds of miles to the west, 113mph.

I think I heard two hurricanes in the early to mid 1900s (one might have been Hazel?) each cut a new inlet through the barrier Islands in New Jersey?

[LibertyBell]

On 4/4/2025 at 6:47 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool with some showers or periods fo rain. It will turn somewhat milder on Sunday with additional showers and thundershowers possible. Highs will likely reach the upper 50s in New York City and middle 60s in Philadelphia.

It will turn cooler on Saturday and then milder again on Sunday. Showers are possible during the weekend. Much of next week could feature below normal temperatures.

Two big stories continue to dominate the U.S. weather this week. First, a major to historic rainfall event is affecting parts of the Tennessee Valley. Excessive rainfall is occurring in parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee. Second, unseasonable heat covers parts of the Southeast. Tampa could experience its earlest four-day heatwave on record during April 2-5. The existing record is April 26-29, 1991.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +26.82 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.043 today.

 

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

 

Good as long as it's not this wet and not extremely humid.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I think I heard two hurricanes in the early to mid 1900s (one might have been Hazel?) each cut a new inlet through the barrier Islands in New Jersey?

a hurricane in August 1893 destroyed Hogs Island near the Rockaways

[SACRUS]

17 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I think I heard two hurricanes in the early to mid 1900s (one might have been Hazel?) each cut a new inlet through the barrier Islands in New Jersey?

 

Good read

 

https://www.njweather.org/content/new-jersey-hurricane-hunting-brief-recap-small-state’s-big-hurricane-history

[SACRUS]

Another 1 - near 2 inches being forecast as rain continues to add up

 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC

April 6, 1982 : 9.6 inches of snow

Much better than the crap we have now.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Another 1 - near 2 inches being forecast as rain continues to add up

 

we will be in flooding conditions soon at this rate.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2023)
NYC: 80 (2023)
LGA: 80 (1947)
JFK: 74 (2023)


Lows:

EWR: 17 (1982)  Blizzard
NYC: 21 (1982)
LGA: 22 (1982)
JFK: 20 (1982)

Historical:

 

1936 - A tornado outbreak in the Deep South resulted in a total of 446 deaths and eighteen million dollars damage. It was a "Tale of Two Cities". During the evening of the 5th a tornado hit Tupelo MS killing 216 persons, injuring 700 others, and causing three million dollars damage. The next morning the paths of two tornadoes met about 8:30 AM and cut a swath four blocks wide through Gainesville GA killing 203 persons, injuring 934, and causing thirteen million dollars damage. Eight to ten feet of debris filled the streets following the storm. At least 70 persons died in the Cooper Pants Factory, the greatest tornado toll of record for a single building. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1983 - The temperature at Denver, CO, dipped to a record cold seven degrees above zero. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Rain and melting snow caused flooding from New England to Ohio. Flooding in the Merrimack Valley of Massacusetts was the worst in fifty years, causing forty-two million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm produced wind gusts to 75 mph around Chicago, IL, and wind gusts to 92 mph at Goshen IN. The high winds created twenty-five foot waves on Lake Michigan. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in California. Afternoon highs of 91 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, 93 degrees at San Jose, 98 degrees at San Diego, 103 degrees at Santa Maria, 104 degrees at Riverside, and 106 degrees in Downtown Los Angeles established records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Snow developed in the northeastern U.S. for the second time in the month. In Virginia, a heavy wet snow blanketed northern and central sections of the Shenandoah Valley, and eastern foothills, with up to 12 inches reported around Harrisonburg. Heavy snow also blanketed the high elevations of West Virginia, with 10 inches reported at Snowshoe. An inch of snow at Syracuse NY raised their total for the winter season to a record-tying 161.3 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Thunderstorms erupted and produced severe weather including 32 reports of tornadoes, most of which touched down in Mississippi and Louisiana. Between 20 and 25 homes were destroyed and 7 people were injured. Mississippi governor Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency (CNN).

what a historic event this was.

 

Lows:

EWR: 17 (1982)  Blizzard
NYC: 21 (1982)
LGA: 22 (1982)
JFK: 20 (1982)

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

we will be in flooding conditions soon at this rate.

never bet on dry here.  Even beyond mid april any warmup looks to coincide with frequent rain chances.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This time of the year just sucks here so many years. Sometimes even Memorial Day we’re still stuck in the muck. 

it's gotten worse, if you look back at the 70s, 80s and 90s all the way to 2002 we had drier Aprils back then and more 90 degree days in April than we have now.  Note especially April 1976, 77, 78.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

never bet on dry here.  Even beyond mid april any warmup looks to coincide with frequent rain chances.

Our Aprils were hotter and drier in the late 70s.  It's actually pretty surprising how much more common 90 degree heat was in April back then.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, lee59 said:

The strongest wind recorded in NYC was from hurricane Hazel as it passed hundreds of miles to the west, 113mph.

I wonder what the wind speeds were in the Norfolk and Long Island hurricane? All I see are storm surge values and minimum barometric pressure-- what about wind speeds?

[SRRTA22]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what the wind speeds were in the Norfolk and Long Island hurricane? All I see are storm surge values and minimum barometric pressure-- what about wind speeds?

Multi quote is a thing my brotha 

[FPizz]

9 hours ago, steve392 said:

An absolute deluge out right now. Been pouring for over an hour already. 

 

Saw that.  I was on the southern end of that, only .25" here.  I heard some thunder with it.  Just north must have gotten dumped on

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what the wind speeds were in the Norfolk and Long Island hurricane? All I see are storm surge values and minimum barometric pressure-- what about wind speeds?

They did not have accurate anemometers back then.

The Hazel gust is highly misleading, it comes from the Battery. The wind was SE and had a funneling effect through NY harbor. 
Based on tree damage, the winds during Hazel were not the strongest ever in Manhattan. 1938 had significantly more tree damage, and likely higher winds.

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Saw that.  I was on the southern end of that, only .25" here.  I heard some thunder with it.  Just north must have gotten dumped on

Nice soaker swath for parts of the area overnight.

Click to enlarge.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They did not have accurate anemometers back then.

The Hazel gust is highly misleading, it comes from the Battery. The wind was SE and had a funneling effect through NY harbor. 
Based on tree damage, the winds during Hazel were not the strongest ever in Manhattan. 1938 had significantly more tree damage, and likely higher winds.

But the 1938 storm made landfall 100 miles east of Manhattan.