April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[Dark Star]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll take “Things that definitely aren’t going to happen” for $1,000 Alex

Like Friday night's rain?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I’m starting to think that the record rains in the Midwest will have a feed back to a much wetter warm season pattern this year. 

[psv88]

April sucks in the northeast. Fucking brutal every year 

[Brian5671]

the showers in central PA will get all of us later

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, psv88 said:

April sucks in the northeast. Fucking brutal every year 

It doesn't look so bad after next weekend 

[Picard]

Few spritzes here and there, but the bulk of it going north.  
Looks like a small line has filled in that might get here in an hour or two.
Temp 50 and overcast, and with a breeze, feels every bit of 30.  A sunny day at 35 with no wind would feel better.

[nycwinter]

53 degrees ocean breeze good enough to wear the coat and hoodie i forgot my gloves and my hands were freezing cold when i got home.. had to put them under warm water for a few minutes...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Well there goes the rain free day. Super raw outside. Yes April often does suck here.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m starting to think that the record rains in the Midwest will have a feed back to a much wetter warm season pattern this year. 

Yep, might be hard to get a sustained hot/dry pattern on any westerly flow. More swampy low 90s/mid 70s dewpoint heat. But it’s been tough anyway with the Bermuda High migrating more and more northerly over the last few summers which means mostly southerly flow and Florida type weather. 

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, might be hard to get a sustained hot/dry pattern on any westerly flow. More swampy low 90s/mid 70s dewpoint heat. But it’s been tough anyway with the Bermuda High migrating more and more northerly over the last few summers which means mostly southerly flow and Florida type weather. 

at some point a hurricane is going to get pushed here 

[jm1220]

Just now, forkyfork said:

at some point a hurricane is going to get pushed here 

Yep for sure. Isaias in 2020 was a close call-if it hit NC as a Category 3 instead it would’ve been devastating all the way to our area. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, forkyfork said:

at some point a hurricane is going to get pushed here 

It's inevitable.  We're rolling the dice every year

[wishcast_hater]

at some point a hurricane is going to get pushed here 

That can be said for any weather event.


.

[forkyfork]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep for sure. Isaias in 2020 was a close call-if it hit NC as a Category 3 instead it would’ve been devastating all the way to our area. 

also fay happening in late august instead of july

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

at some point a hurricane is going to get pushed here 

Every 50 years or so...

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

That can be said for any weather event.


.

i don't mean a typical deep trough scoop like floyd i mean a more tropical landfall from the sse

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Every 50 years or so...

Way earlier 

[MJO812]

Nice cutoff low rainstorm next week on models

[IrishRob17]

5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed. There was a nice batch of rain out near Scranton but the bulk of it is going to my north, I just getting clipped by the southern edge. Time will tell what happens with that batch out in western PA. 

That western batch just moved through, a total of .17 through the tipper, 46/42 

[Dark Star]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Way earlier 

I have a poor memory.  What was the last Categorical Hurricane to hit NYC?  I'm thinking it had to be before Sandy?  Sandy was devastating.  Sandy was weakening as it was approaching New Jersey.  I'm not sure how bad it would have been if it didn't run into that front.  While ocean levels were elevated, and surely would have caused damage from the surge, that front caused it to strengthen, and the winds sucked everything violently inland.  Some say it was a once in a 1000 year storm.  I'm hoping so...

[qg_omega]

45 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I have a poor memory.  What was the last Categorical Hurricane to hit NYC?  I'm thinking it had to be before Sandy?  Sandy was devastating.  Sandy was weakening as it was approaching New Jersey.  I'm not sure how bad it would have been if it didn't run into that front.  While ocean levels were elevated, and surely would have caused damage from the surge, that front caused it to strengthen, and the winds sucked everything violently inland.  Some say it was a once in a 1000 year storm.  I'm hoping so...

Would have been much less of an event without the phase

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I have a poor memory.  What was the last Categorical Hurricane to hit NYC?  I'm thinking it had to be before Sandy?  Sandy was devastating.  Sandy was weakening as it was approaching New Jersey.  I'm not sure how bad it would have been if it didn't run into that front.  While ocean levels were elevated, and surely would have caused damage from the surge, that front caused it to strengthen, and the winds sucked everything violently inland.  Some say it was a once in a 1000 year storm.  I'm hoping so...

Sandy had 70 mph winds from NJ to Maine. That wouldn’t happen with purely tropical system. Sandy definitely a rare storm

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I have a poor memory.  What was the last Categorical Hurricane to hit NYC?  I'm thinking it had to be before Sandy?  Sandy was devastating.  Sandy was weakening as it was approaching New Jersey.  I'm not sure how bad it would have been if it didn't run into that front.  While ocean levels were elevated, and surely would have caused damage from the surge, that front caused it to strengthen, and the winds sucked everything violently inland.  Some say it was a once in a 1000 year storm.  I'm hoping so...

Irene made landfall in NYC but was no longer a hurricane and most of the damage was from flooding not winds. If we had a cat 2 survive up the coast and make landfall over nyc you'd have localized 100 mph+ winds and probably tropical storm force winds for most of the area 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I have a poor memory.  What was the last Categorical Hurricane to hit NYC?  I'm thinking it had to be before Sandy?  Sandy was devastating.  Sandy was weakening as it was approaching New Jersey.  I'm not sure how bad it would have been if it didn't run into that front.  While ocean levels were elevated, and surely would have caused damage from the surge, that front caused it to strengthen, and the winds sucked everything violently inland.  Some say it was a once in a 1000 year storm.  I'm hoping so...

Believe it or not, 1893 was the last time a hurricane made landfall in the 5 borros. 

[wishcast_hater]

It’s going to pour today. The radar is fully lit up over PA.

Still waiting….


.

[jm1220]

Gloria and Belle made landfall over Jones Beach I think. Irene made landfall over the Rockaways but was just below hurricane status. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cutoff low rainstorm next week on models

This time of the year just sucks here so many years. Sometimes even Memorial Day we’re still stuck in the muck. 

[steve392]

7 hours ago, MANDA said:

Looks good!  Nothing like that here.  Still 90% winter brown.

Thanks.  Some yards are still that way around by me too.  

 

 

This cold feels good. Is nice sleeping temps but this dam mist makes the day suck.  Trying to put mulch down.  You get soaked.  Clean bbq, soaked.  

[donsutherland1]

It will turn somewhat milder tomorrow with additional showers and thundershowers possible. Highs will likely reach the upper 50s in New York City and middle 60s in Philadelphia. It turn noticeably cooler on Monday with some additional showers.

Much of next week could feature below normal temperatures. It will begin to turn milder after midweek with temperatures approaching near seasonable levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +4.47 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.484 today.

[lee59]

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I have a poor memory.  What was the last Categorical Hurricane to hit NYC?  I'm thinking it had to be before Sandy?  Sandy was devastating.  Sandy was weakening as it was approaching New Jersey.  I'm not sure how bad it would have been if it didn't run into that front.  While ocean levels were elevated, and surely would have caused damage from the surge, that front caused it to strengthen, and the winds sucked everything violently inland.  Some say it was a once in a 1000 year storm.  I'm hoping so...

The strongest wind recorded in NYC was from hurricane Hazel as it passed hundreds of miles to the west, 113mph.