April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

at 2 pm the clouds are finally here.  No more sun until Monday? =\

A truly severe drought, one that empty’s NYC’s reservoirs is one of the worst disaster scenarios I can think of.

[winterwx21]

Only 45 degrees right now. Nasty out there today. Looking forward to the 70s tomorrow. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A truly severe drought, one that empty’s NYC’s reservoirs is one of the worst disaster scenarios I can think of.

I dont think that's even possible.

The worst drought we had was in 1965 I think

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Only 45 degrees right now. Nasty out there today. Looking forward to the 70s tomorrow. 

this morning right up until 2 pm was absolutely wonderful with lots of sunshine and blue skies.

70s are good but 70s with rain and overcast skies suck.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

this morning right up until 2 pm was absolutely wonderful with lots of sunshine and blue skies.

70s are good but 70s with rain and overcast skies suck.

 

Tomorrow looks mostly dry 

[lee59]

In the 40s all day, now 43. Didn't feel to cold as the sun is fairly strong this time of year.

[gravitylover]

It was about 50° for a few minutes but the wind hurt, now it's overcast and 41° with a solid 9mph breeze. I know it won't but it feels like snow. 

Yay spring.

[nycwinter]

what a glorious day today coat hoodie gloves hat::)

[lee59]

Has become overcast and cold, 42 degrees with an east wind

[donsutherland1]

It will turn much warmer tomorrow. The mercury could soar to 70° or above in New York City. The temperature could make a run a 80° from Washington, DC to Philadelphia.

Friday will remain warm, but showers and perhaps a thundershower are possible as a cold front moves through the region.

It will turn cooler on Saturday and then milder again on Sunday. Showers are possible during the weekend.The first half of next week could feature below normal temperatures.

Two big stories will likely dominate the U.S. weather this week. First, a major to historic rainfall event is likely to affect parts of the Tennessee Valley tomorrow through Sunday. Excessive rainfall is likely in parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee. Second, unseasonable heat is likely in parts of the Southeast. Tampa could experience its earlest four-day heatwave on record during April 2-5. The existing record is April 26-29, 1991. Already, today's high of 94° in Tampa not only smashed the daily record of 90° from 1890, but was the earliest-season such reading on record. The prior earliest 94° or above temperature occurred on April 29, 2017.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +35.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.975 today.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think that's even possible.

The worst drought we had was in 1965 I think

 

Of course it’s possible. If we have an exceptionally dry year and then we get one of those crazy heat domes they had in pac nw. That had 10,000 year temps in BC Canada. There were places that beat their all time records by 20 degrees. Europe has had some too just not as prolific. It’s only a matter of time.

[BxEngine]

The hrrr sucks. Christ. How can it get a 1 hr forecast so wrong?

[Sundog]

You don't see that everyday:

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Of course it’s possible. If we have an exceptionally dry year and then we get one of those crazy heat domes they had in pac nw. That had 10,000 year temps in BC Canada. There were places that beat their all time records by 20 degrees. Europe has had some too just not as prolific. It’s only a matter of time.

It’s not possible at all

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Of course it’s possible. If we have an exceptionally dry year and then we get one of those crazy heat domes they had in pac nw. That had 10,000 year temps in BC Canada. There were places that beat their all time records by 20 degrees. Europe has had some too just not as prolific. It’s only a matter of time.

It's only possible on a technical level, but it's EXTREMELY unlikely. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Sundog said:

It's only possible on a technical level, but it's EXTREMELY unlikely. 

Fully agree, something like .000001 

I was just thinking of a way to make it happen.

[steve392]

Had a drizzle while stuck on a 16.  Beautiful chilly night to help sleep. Windows open and fan on. 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Of course it’s possible. If we have an exceptionally dry year and then we get one of those crazy heat domes they had in pac nw. That had 10,000 year temps in BC Canada. There were places that beat their all time records by 20 degrees. Europe has had some too just not as prolific. It’s only a matter of time.

Historically going through our precipitation record, that's the only time we have had less than 30 inches of rainfall.  A couple of times we have had between 35-40 inches of rainfall so that's our lower baseline in our new climate.  As we've seen with historic flooding, this kills far more people than a year with between 35-40 inches of rain.

It's why the predictions are so dire for the midwest and south, historic flooding is one of the top killers =\

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Fully agree, something like .000001 

I was just thinking of a way to make it happen.

I'd worry a lot more about historic flooding.  No one deserves what the midwest and south are going to get over the next few days.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will turn much warmer tomorrow. The mercury could soar to 70° or above in New York City. The temperature could make a run a 80° from Washington, DC to Philadelphia.

Friday will remain warm, but showers and perhaps a thundershower are possible as a cold front moves through the region.

It will turn cooler on Saturday and then milder again on Sunday. Showers are possible during the weekend.The first half of next week could feature below normal temperatures.

Two big stories will likely dominate the U.S. weather this week. First, a major to historic rainfall event is likely to affect parts of the Tennessee Valley tomorrow through Sunday. Excessive rainfall is likely in parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee. Second, unseasonable heat is likely in parts of the Southeast. Tampa could experience its earlest four-day heatwave on record during April 2-5. The existing record is April 26-29, 1991. Already, today's high of 94° in Tampa not only smashed the daily record of 90° from 1890, but was the earliest-season such reading on record. The prior earliest 94° or above temperature occurred on April 29, 2017.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +35.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.975 today.

wow and Tampa's record is from a much hotter year overall, 1991 had one of our hottest summers on record.

 

Tampa could experience its earliest four-day heatwave on record during April 2-5. The existing record is April 26-29, 1991. 

 

[bluewave]

594 DM is a record Southeast Ridge for early April. 
 

 

[Sundog]

Models have another cold shot showing NYC going below freezing a couple more times on CAA in 6 or 7 days.

[ForestHillWx]

43 with very dense fog. 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd worry a lot more about historic flooding.  No one deserves what the midwest and south are going to get over the next few days.

 

I could think of a few areas that might "deserve it".  I think we would need a hydrologist to chime in on this.  NYC proper has their water source in reservoirs about 125 north of the City.  I would suspect that these "reservoirs" are fed from a massive drainage system, perhaps reaching as far as the Great Lakes and the Adirondacks?  I have seen some reservoir levels in Jersey get mighty low, but many of these are "connected", meaning some are drawn down to feed other ones in times of drought.  I do hate when we do reach actual drought conditions, that only people who hire landscapers are allowed to water their lawn.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Tomorrow looks mostly dry 

it's been raining most of the morning, I woke up to drip drip drip lol.

For me a sucky day this time of year is overcast and damp regardless of temperatures.

A good day is blue skies and sunshine regardless of temperatures (it's never going to be all that cold during the day this time of year unless there's an April 1982 kind of airmass which never happens anymore.)

 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Models have another cold shot showing NYC going below freezing a couple more times on CAA in 6 or 7 days.

Around the 10th? We're going to need an exceptional airmass.  I would bet on not getting to freezing but maybe 35-36 or so.  That can happen a lot this time of year in a cold airmass.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

594 DM is a record Southeast Ridge for early April. 
 

 

it's interesting with such a strong ridge we're not going to get all that warm.

What kind of ridge did we have in April 2002 that caused that amazing heat?

And in April 2010 when we had our earliest 90 degree day (92) on record?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Around the 10th? We're going to need an exceptional airmass.  I would bet on not getting to freezing but maybe 35-36 or so.  That can happen a lot this time of year in a cold airmass.

 

It’s definitely possible. Still lots of snow across eastern Canada. CAA is the only way the park can approach freezing this time of year. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's interesting with such a strong ridge we're not going to get all that warm.

What kind of ridge did we have in April 2002 that caused that amazing heat?

And in April 2010 when we had our earliest 90 degree day (92) on record?

The 850 mb temperatures will be warmer than last weekend when we reached the 80s. But this time the flow will be more SW with clouds and the front nearby. If we were able to have deep westerly flow like last weekend with the forecast 850s, then it would support highs near 90°. So even with the clouds and more SW flow the 80s will make it to Central NJ on Sunday. More of a seabreeze this time around on Long Island.

[SACRUS]

 

50 / 49 clouds and some light drizzle.  Warm and wet-ish Thu - Sun.  Clouds will limit temps under the ridge.  0.50- 1 inch the next 4- 5 days.  Trough into the north east 4/8 - 4/12  keeping it below normal.  Moderation but could be by way of onshore /easterly flow from cut off by mid month.  Not a good opening weekend for baseball in Queens.