April 2025 Discussion/Obs

[Rjay]

Let's bloom

[Rjay]

If the EPS is right we torch then blocking develops lol

 

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If the EPS is right we torch then blocking develops lol

 

 

Right on cue for spring over the last few years. And I’m sure it’ll come with endless easterly wind. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Let's bloom

Nope

 

[SnoSki14]

Lots of frost/freeze potential if this is correct especially just outside the city. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nope

 

Like clockwork almost every year. I have a snowboarding trip planned to VT so I’m ok with this until after that. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Like clockwork almost every year. I have a snowboarding trip planned to VT so I’m ok with this until after that. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Trough into the NE April 8 -12

 

[RU848789]

Only 11 days out and it's not the GFS, lol...

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Only 11 days out and it's not the GFS, lol...

AI has an enormous amount of learning to do with snowfall forecasts (the GFS's problem is structural) and such forecasts will grow more skillful with the additional learning. I could see Boston having a small amount of measurable snowfall (probably < 1" monthly total), but don't see the kind of pattern that brings anything close to what that map is showing.

Historically, there are no snowstorms on record that saw 6" or more in Boston and 4" or more in both New York City and Philadelphia on or after April 10th. The latest such storm (and only on after the first week of April) occurred during April 8-9, 1917. Prior to regular recordkeeping, a storm that met and exceeded such criteria occurred on April 12-13, 1841.

[RU848789]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

AI has an enormous amount of learning to do with snowfall forecasts (the GFS's problem is structural) and such forecasts will grow more skillful with the additional learning. I could see Boston having a small amount of measurable snowfall (probably < 1" monthly total), but don't see the kind of pattern that brings anything close to what that map is showing.

Historically, there are no snowstorms on record that saw 6" or more in Boston and 4" or more in both New York City and Philadelphia on or after April 10th. The latest such storm (and only on after the first week of April) occurred during April 8-9, 1917. Prior to regular recordkeeping, a storm that met and exceeded such criteria occurred on April 12-13, 1841.

Agree on all counts, hence my "lol."  The only thing that gives at least a little credence that we could have a bit of snow in some places around then is the CPC's forecast for that period to be well below normal in temp.  

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Agree on all counts, hence my "lol."  The only thing that gives at least a little credence that we could have a bit of snow in some places around then is the CPC's forecast for that period to be well below normal in temp.  

I know. I have more hope for AI down the road than the GFS as it currently stands.

[MJO812]

42 here

[bluewave]

Warmer and wet start to April as a frontal boundary stalls out just to our west. The good news is that February and March saw a bounce back to normal to a little above normal rainfall. So the drought is slowly easing. Looks like the 2nd week of April will be cooler and drier as we get the typical spring final dynamic final warming blocking. Then we probably see the temperatures rebound as the blocking fades later in the month. 
 

MAR 31 to April 7 above normal temperatures and rainfall

 

[SACRUS]

 

42 / 30 off a low of 39 and prior high of 81.  1.05 in the bucket..   Roller coaster and yoyo pattern continues/  Breezy cool next 36 hours near 50 today sub 50 Wed.  Warmer / wetter Thu - Sun another 1 - >1 inches in that period.  Trough back into northeast 4/8 - 4/12.   Frost or freeze Tue/wed next week.  Beyond there looks near/ below normal to the midway point of the month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1978)
NYC: 83 (1917)
LGA: 80 (1978)
JFK: 75 (1978)

 

Lows:

EWR: 28 (1969)
NYC: 12 (1923)
LGA: 27 (1969)
JFK: 26 (1969)

Historical:

 

1875: The London Times published the first daily newspaper weather map. The first American newspaper weather map would be issued on 5/12/1876 in the New York Herald. Weather maps would first appear on a regular basis beginning on 5/9/1879 in the New York Daily Graphic.

1912 - A tornado with incredible velocity ripped into downtown Houston, TX, breaking the water table and giving the city its first natural waterspout. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Residents in the eastern U.S. awoke on "April Fool's Day" to bitterly cold temperatures. The mercury plunged to -34 degrees at Bergland MI and to 16 degrees in Georgia. (David Ludlum)

 

1960: The first weather satellite, TIROS 1 (Television and Infra-Red Observation Satellite) began sending pictures back to Earth. The TIROS series would have little benefit to operational weather forecasters because the image quality was low and inconsistent. The most critical understanding achieved from the new technology was the discovery of the high degree of organization of large-scale weather systems, a fact never apparent from ground and aircraft observations. 

 

1973: A tornado touches down near Brentsville, Virginia, then traveled to Fairfax hitting Woodson High School. This F2 tornado injured 37 and caused $14 million in damage.

1987 - Forty-five cities across the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 37 degrees at Apalachicola FL, 34 degrees at Jacksonville FL, 30 degrees at Macon GA, and 22 degrees at Knoxville TN, were records for April. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - A tornado touched down briefly during a snow squall on the south shore of White Fish Bay (six miles northwest of Bay Mills WI). A mobile home was unroofed and insulation was sucked from its walls. (The Weather Channel)

1988 - A powerful spring storm produced 34 inches of snow at Rye CO, 22 inches at Timpas OK, 19 inches at Sharon Springs KS, and up to 35 inches in New Mexico. Severe thunderstorms associated with the same storm spawned a tornado which caused 2.5 million dollars damage at East Mountain TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Up to six inches of snow blanketed the Adirondacks of eastern New York State and the Saint Lawrence Valley of Vermont. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Colorado Rockies. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Texas, from southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana to southern Georgia, and from northern South Carolina to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado at Evergreen AL, and there were more than eighty reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail north of Bastrop LA, and produced damaging winds which injured one person west of Meridian MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

At least an inch forecast between Thu and this weekend.  Flooding into TN - OH valleys.

 

[JerseyWx]

Made it to April 1st, finally.  About 1.5 inches last night.  Nice to have some good rains as things start to green up and bloom.  

[MANDA]

1.61" rainfall here last evening that lasted until around mid-night.   No wind to speak of but vivid lightning display with some frequent very loud thunder.

Much needed.  Lets keep it going as we head through April.

[MANDA]

Rainfall totals.  Click to enlarge.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be blustery and cool. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s. It will then turn much warmer on Thursday. The mercury could soar to 70° or above in New York City. The temperature could make a run a 80° from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Friday will remain warm, but showers and perhaps a thundershower are possible as a cold front moves through the region.

It will turn cooler on Saturday and then milder again on Sunday. Showers are possible during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring.

The SOI was +26.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.227 today.

[Roger Smith]

<<<< APRIL RECORDS for NYC >>>>

note: temp in ( ) after Low min is daily max associated if not a record low max

DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min _________ Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow

Apr 01 ___ 83 1917 ____ 61 2016 _______ 34 1874 _____12 1923 (36) _____ 1.89 1993 ___ 2.32 1997 ____ 8.5 1924

Apr 02 ___ 81 1967 ____ 61 1967 _______ 35 1911 _____22 1919 (36 1st) ___ 1.93 1970 ___1.96 1970 ____ 5.5 2018

Apr 03 ___ 81 1981 ____ 59 1892, 2015 _ 34 1896 _____24 1954 (43) ______1.90 1983 ___2.42 2024^___10.0 1915 (10.2 3rd-4th)

Apr 04 ___ 80 1892 ____ 62 1892 _______ 32 1879 _____20 1874 __________ 1.99 1987 ___2.48 1987 ____ 2.5 1957 _ also 2.37" rain 2d 1876

Apr 05 ___ 80 1928 ____ 60 1892 _______ 30 1881 _____20 1874 (38) _____ 2.76 1984 ___4.37 1984 ____ 6.5 1944

Apr 06 ___ 80 2023^____58 2010 _______ 31 1881 _____21 1982 (41) _______ 2.52 1886 ___2.81 1886 ____ 9.6 1982 _ non-rec 3.3",3.1" S 1938 6-7.

Apr 07 ___ 92 2010 ____ 63 1991 _______ 30 1982 _____21 1982 ___________ 1.35 1899 ___2.58 1886 ____ 4.0 2003 _ also 2.50"2d 1958

Apr 08 ___ 90 1991 ____ 66 1991 _______37 1917,56,2003_25 1982___________ 1.93 1940 ___1.93 1940* ___ 4.2 1956 (1.8" S 1916, 3.3" 8th-9th)

Apr 09 ___ 86 1991 ____ 68 1991 _______39 1885,1982,2003 _25 1977 (44) ____ 3.42 1980 ___3.42 1980*___ 6.4 1917 (6.5S 8th-9th) _2.1"S 1942

Apr 10 ___ 86 1922 ____ 55 1871, 2013 _ 37 1942 _____28 1974,85,97 _____ 4.31 1983 ___4.32 1983 ____ 0.5 1882 _ also 2.72" 2d r 1906

Apr 11 ___ 84 1955 ____ 61 2017 _______ 38 1882,1918 _24 1909 (39 10th) ___ 1.10 1913 ___4.31 1983**___ 0.4 1918

Apr 12 ___ 90 1977 ____ 64 2023^_______ 35 1874, 1918 _22 1874 ___________ 2.12 1933 ___2.13 1933 ____ 2.0 1918 (2.4S 2d) 1.3"S 1940

Apr 13 ___ 90 2023^____ 67 2023^_______ 35 1875, 1940 _22 1874 __________ 1.92 2020 ___2.12 1933**___ 8.7 1875

Apr 14 ___ 91 2023^____ 70 2023^_______ 41 1940, 48 __26 1950 (44 13th) _2.72 1909 ___2.76 1909 ____ 1.9 1950, 1.3 1875 (10.0 2d)

Apr 15 ___ 87 1941 _____ 67 1941 _______ 41 1885, 1943 _28 1943 ____________ 7.57 2007 ___7.57 2007 ____ 0.5 1892 (1.0 2d S) 

Apr 16 ___ 92 2002 ____ 69 2002 _______ 39 1872 _____29 1928 ___________ 3.29 1983 ___8.47 2007 ____ Trace 2014^_ also 2.82"R 2018

Apr 17 ___ 96 2002 ____ 74 2002 _______ 33 1875 _____27 1875 ___________ 1.59 1873 ___3.29 1983**___Trace 1935^

Apr 18 ___ 96 1976 ____ 76 2002 _______ 32 1875 _____25 1875 ___________ 2.19 1924 ___2.19 1924*____ 3.0 1887

Apr 19 ___ 92 1976 ____ 68 1976 _______ 40 1875 _____22 1875 ___________ 1.96 1978 ___2.23 1924 ____  0.8 1983

Apr 20 ___ 90 1927 ____ 67 1976 _______ 37 1904 _____24 1897 ___________ 1.96 1893 ___1.99 1978____Trace 1925,53 _ also 1.96" 2dR 1874

Apr 21 ___ 87 1923 ____ 60 1923 _______ 40 1940 _____26 1875 ___________ 2.28 1991 ___2.78 1901 ____Trace 1928,47

Apr 22 ___86 1962,73,2001_62 2016 ______40 1873 _____28 1875 ___________ 2.45 2012 ___2.67 2012 ____Trace 1929,72

Apr 23 ___ 86 2007 ____ 60 1926 _______ 40 1883 _____29 1872 ___________ 2.34 2006 ___3.57 2006 ____Trace 1906,30,63,86

Apr 24 ___ 87 2001 ____ 63 2008 _______ 44 1883, 1930 _31 1930 ___________ 2.17 1968 ___2.57 2006 ____ 0.5 1883

Apr 25 ___ 91 1915 ____ 58 1979, 82 _____ 43 1919 _____29 1919 ___________ 1.68 1945 ___2.20 1968 ____ 3.0 1875

Apr 26 ___ 92 2009 ____ 67 2009 _______ 42 1874 _____31 1919 ___________ 1.88 1889 ___2.58 1889 ____Trace 1919_ also 2.54" 2dR 1910

Apr 27 ___ 92 1915 ____ 61 1949, 2011____45 1946 _____36 1932 (48) ______ 2.04 2007 ___3.42 1889 ____Trace 1932,67

Apr 28 ___ 90 1990,2009_ 69 1990, 2009__41 1898 _____31 1874 (44) ______ 2.74 1980 ___3.07 1980 ____Trace 1874,1931

Apr 29 ___ 89 1974 ____ 64 2017 _______ 38 1874 _____32 1874 ___________ 2.46 2023^___2.85 1980 ____ 0.5 1874 _ also 2.54" 2dR 1958

Apr 30 ___ 91 1942 ____ 63 1903 _______ 45 1925 _____32 1874 ___________ 4.97 2014 ___5.00 2014^ ___ 0.0 (no traces)

-- - - - - - - - - - - - --

^ notes above

3rd _ new record 2d prec (2.42" 2024) replaced 2.01" (1917)

6th _ Record high max 2023 (80F) replaces 79F from 1912, 1917 and 1947

12th _ Record high min 2023 (64F) replaces 58F (1947, 2017)

13th _ Record high max 2023 (90F) replaces 88F (1977) and min (67F) replaces 61F (1945)

14th _ Record high max 2023 (91F) replaces 85F (1941) and min (70F) replaces 60F (2019)

16th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1935, 1939, 1943, and 2014

17th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1928 and 1935.

29th _ Previous record 0.91" (1909)

 

28th-29th _ 2.79" total rain 2023 just below 1980 maximum amount of 2.85"

29th-30th _ 4.78" two-day rainfall in 2023 after 2.32" fell on 30th (2014 retains both records for 30th).

__________________________________________________________________________

 

[bluewave]

April is continuing the theme of the strongest average wind gusts over 30 mph again from January through March on record. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1900&sday=0101&eday=0331&varname=avg_wind_gust&w=none&thres=1&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[Sundog]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

April is continuing the theme of the strongest average wind gusts over 30 mph again from January through March on record. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1900&sday=0101&eday=0331&varname=avg_wind_gust&w=none&thres=1&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Why has this year been exceptional regarding average wind speeds? What overarching setup would produce such a long term outcome?

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Why has this year been exceptional regarding average wind speeds? What overarching setup would produce such a long term outcome?

The nonstop parade of storms cutting through the Great Lakes with the record fast Northern stream of the Pacific Jet. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The nonstop parade of storms cutting through the Great Lakes with the record fast Northern stream of the Pacific Jet. 

Would wind speeds naturally increase as a result of climate change 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Would wind speeds naturally increase as a result of climate change 

Super weighted question. It’s a yes and no that’s very location specific. Locally I would expect average wind speeds to decrease as there will be less arctic air to create cold air advection. CAA often drives our longest periods of sustained winds. Even more locally for the coast, summer sea breezes will decrease as the ocean continues to warm. 
On the high end I would suspect our highest wind gusts to increase, with stronger thunderstorms and hurricanes. 

[psv88]

56 today. Was warm in the sun 

[Rjay]

[LoboLeader1]

31 here. Topped out at 51 yesterday.