4/2-4/3 Potential Major Severe WX Outbreak

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, nvck said:

Would be exactly 1 year from this:

Ah yes, the PDS wienerhead outbreak.

[nvck]

Moderate issued for Evansville - Little Rock area along the Ohio & Mississippi Rivers

[nvck]

tor-driven, and I was surprised that they didn't go 45% for wind.

[MidwestChaser]

18z HRRR really maxing out Sigtor in NE Illinois.

 

[Chicago Storm]

9 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

18z HRRR really maxing out Sigtor in NE Illinois.

 

solid, but would like a bit more turning in the lower 3km.

[MidwestChaser]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

solid, but would like a bit more turning in the lower 3km.

[MidwestChaser]

18z 4knam on the clearing train as well.

[Floydbuster]

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Ah yes, the PDS wienerhead outbreak.

That was one of the most overhyped weather events I have ever seen. You had folks on social media telling people in Columbus to cancel all daytime appointments and be prepared for another 1974 Xenia event. I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. People were freaking out and it was literally a line of scattered rain showers throughout most of Ohio. 

 

 

[ILSNOW]

Great read from Izzi

The forecast shear profiles are very concerning Wed afternoon
and evening with 40-50kt of south-southwesterly flow at 925 mb
veering to southwesterly at over 100kt at 500mb. This results in
very long and exceptionally favorable hodographs for
supercells. Very large, cyclonically curved hodographs in the
0-1km layer with mostly streamwise vorticity also would favor
the potential for tornadoes, especially given the low LCLs.

While the shear profiles are extreme, there remains considerable
uncertainty. First, does the forecast magnitude of instability
actually materialize as modeled tomorrow afternoon. Second,
convergence looks rather weak along the front and it is unclear
if it will be enough for convective initiation, assuming
sufficient instability. Finally, guidance generally has our CWA
in the convergent, right exit region of the strong upper level
jet.

Ultimately, there are many potential scenarios where we end up
with only weak, non-severe convection in the late
afternoon/early evening or no convection at all. Unfortunately,
given sufficient instability and intense convection develops,
the potential would exist for fast moving tornadic supercells,
with the potential for strong tornadoes.

[sbnwx85]

It appears clearing should happen in the Michiana area, but still not totally convinced we'll get a big hit here based on convective initiation issues mentioned by Izzi seen on the HRRR. NAM would be a good hit, though. Just to my south and east looks better.

[nwohweather]

4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

It appears clearing should happen in the Michiana area, but still not totally convinced we'll get a big hit here based on convective initiation issues mentioned by Izzi seen on the HRRR. NAM would be a good hit, though. Just to my south and east looks better.

Agreed. LCL’s this way are basically on the ground, SRH is through the roof, hodographs look good and mid level flow is strong. As long as the instability is there, tomorrow evening has the ability to be quite dangerous. Van Wert to Findlay would be a pretty solid spot to watch

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

That was one of the most overhyped weather events I have ever seen. You had folks on social media telling people in Columbus to cancel all daytime appointments and be prepared for another 1974 Xenia event. I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. People were freaking out and it was literally a line of scattered rain showers throughout most of Ohio. 

 

 

I'm telling you, when we get enhanced or higher it's the kiss of disappointment.   CMH is always on the eastern edge of every threat with the timing almost always during the overnight hours.   I'm not holding my breath for anything too crazy locally tomorrow / tomorrow night.   We shall see.

[cyclone77]

We got bumped out of slight for today/tonight, and bumped out of the enhanced for tomorrow.  Took awhile but SPC caught onto the meh-ness for this area.

[Jackstraw]

3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Agreed. LCL’s this way are basically on the ground, SRH is through the roof, hodographs look good and mid level flow is strong. As long as the instability is there, tomorrow evening has the ability to be quite dangerous. Van Wert to Findlay would be a pretty solid spot to watch

Van Wert is always a solid spot to watch lol

[MidwestChaser]

0z HRRR continues the clearing trend..

[sbnwx85]

8 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

0z HRRR continues the clearing trend..

Initiates storms a little further southwest giving my area a better chance at seeing some action.

[pen_artist]

More of a weenie thing since storms may not be able to take advantage of it but latest HRRR 03z showing insane STP values of 12.7 near Will, Kane, Kendall counties.

[Chicago Storm]

13 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

tomorrow is intriguing...if evolution can play ball.

will it? the morning trend is your friend.

evening trend not your friend.

[KeenerWx]

Aside from run-to-run variations in evolution, the prevailing "fail-modes" to sow doubt on upper end potential have existed with consistency. Speaking more locally on the northern edge and INVOF N IL/N IN. Perhaps most likely is that we get some good soaking thunderstorms with ISO svr threat. Busted hard on my prediction with D2 shaving down the ENH southward. So I'll shut up about any further "calls". I have no business doing that anyway. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Surprise high risk for down south 

[cheese007]

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Surprise high risk for down south 

Broyles...

[nwohweather]

Memphis residents will need Noah’s Ark when they come out of their basements this evening. Definitely quite a dynamic system rolling through

[Spartman]

06z NAM not as wet as the 00z Euro or 06z GFS:

If only the upcoming system was a winter storm instead.....

[A-L-E-K]

much wetter imby, based

[yoda]

Mod risk for tornadoes was considered for more of IN/W OH per 1300z SPC OTLK 

In addition to the tornado threat, large to very large hail (up to
   2-3 inches in diameter) and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur
   with these supercells and bowing clusters. A linear mode appears
   more likely with northward extent across the mid MS Valley into the
   southern Great Lakes as the cold front continues eastward today.
   But, this area will also have less time to destabilize ahead of the
   ongoing convection, which casts some uncertainty on the northern
   extent of the substantial severe threat. Have trimmed the
   Marginal/Slight Risks some across the Upper Midwest, but the
   Enhanced Risk remains unchanged for now. Some risk for supercells
   ahead of the line/clusters will exist across the OH Valley/Midwest.
   But, confidence in this scenario occurring was not great enough to
   expand the Moderate Risk for tornadoes northward into more of IN and
   western OH.

[yoda]

4 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Broyles...

Gleason/Leitman extended the HIGH risk further south into AR on 1300z update

[Stevo6899]

Just had some legitimate thunder/lightning with the ongoing sleet/snow. Prob most exciting thing we'll see around here until hopefully snow on christmas.

[nwohweather]

Boy if everything can really clear out by 3...

The stage is set folks, especially with SRH off the charts

[SolidIcewx]

2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Boy if everything can really clear out by 3...

The stage is set folks, especially with SRH off the charts

Im very curious to see how today plays out. Wonder if it will clear out a bit up my way. Had snow showers and sleet this morning. Some good rumbles of thunder and heavy rain. Let’s see what this evening brings

[Harry Perry]

Really not thinking there’s a chance in my neck of the woods. Regenerating showers overhead just north of the front is going to keep it from pushing far enough north before the next round in Illinois is here. Not saying it can’t happen, but atmospheric recovery is pretty much out of the cards in Michigan. South of the borders should be interesting though.