Geoboy645 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Over the last day or so, the Models have really zeroed in on a potentially major severe weather outbreak across the sub forum. Figured that there should be a thread for it considering it's only 4-5 days out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 keep in mind that this is a composite of all hazards but still, looking like another big day in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Quote With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. From the day4 portion of the days 4-8 outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Im just not overly impressed by this setup and definitely not feeling as aggressive as spc is. Low deepens quick Tues and is well into occlusion process by Wed. Low also very far north. There is good flow over warm sector but feel like sfc winds will tend to veer without secondary low development. Models look very linear right now and morning convection could definitely be an issue esp with northward extent. It does look more cellular further south and there is some orthogonal nature to shear vectors off CF. But the more south you go, the more removed from the low you are. Just not 100% on board with a big tornado threat yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 JB considering this upcoming outbreak as part of the "busiest period" since 2011 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1906358608062788036 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Looking like this might be a dud locally, with better chances south & east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 hours ago, KeenerWx said: Looking like this might be a dud locally, with better chances south & east. Models and even NBM had the high rainfall amounts locked in for the past several days, if not at least a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Large Day 3 Enhanced Risk. Fairly strong wording from SPC. Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night from the Lower Great Lakes, the Mid MS Valley and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A powerful, negative tilt, upper trough will move out of the Plains, over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Wednesday. Accompanied by a 100+ kt jet streak, very strong forcing for ascent will overspread a large unstable warm sector from the Great Lakes, OH Valley and MS Valley. A strong cold front will sweep eastward with widespread to numerous thunderstorms expected. An outbreak of widespread severe storms including: significant tornadoes, severe wind gusts and very large hail is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Midwest to the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley... Early in the forecast period, one or more clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across portions of KS/MO into the upper MS Valley. Very strong synoptic ascent at the exit region of the H5 jet may allow these storms to persist through the morning as the air mass downstream slowly destabilizes. Re-intensification is possible as storms move farther northeast into the lower Great Lakes by early to mid afternoon. Depending on the timing, these storms may also outrun the warm sector. This could limit the severe potential to points farther south if the airmass is unable to recover. Regardless, very strong effective shear (60-80 kt) and large hodographs would support organized storms capable of significant damaging winds, and a tornado risk. ...Mid MS Valley... Immediately southeast of the primary upper low track, more subtle forcing for ascent will overspread a rapidly moistening air mass across the Ozarks, eastern OK and the Mid MS Valley. The air mass will rapidly destabilize and become uncapped with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg likely by mid to late morning. Storms are likely to form by midday as ascent overspreads a pre-frontal trough/diffuse dryline. Some boundary parallel flow is likely suggesting a mixed mode of cellular and bowing segments. However, the very strong troposphereic shear profiles, courtesy of a 50+ kt low-level jet, favor significant supercells as the primary storm mode. A secondary surface low will serve to further back low-level flow and expand very large hodographs from the late afternoon into the evening hours. Very large hail, significant tornadoes and damaging winds all appear likely. The severe threat will continue overnight with some upscale growth across the Mid MS/TN Valley within the broadly unstable air mass. Consideration was given to higher severe probabilities across parts of the Mid MS Valley for the potential for multiple long-lived significant supercells. However, confidence in the exact storm mode and location of maximum threat remains unclear given some potential for morning convection and model timing variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Again, still somewhat skeptical on this as a widespread/significant outbreak which is why I think SPC was wise to hold off on an initial Day-3 Moderate. I could easily see a scenario where the northern part of the risk area (a.k.a. us) gets borked by morning convection and the southern part by veered low-level winds and outflow interactions (like yesterday). 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 As I suspected; latest NAM crashed way down on the forecast EHI/STP values over northern Illinois compared to just 0Z last night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: As I suspected; latest NAM crashed way down on the forecast EHI/STP values over northern Illinois compared to just 0Z last night. 18z brings it back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 9 minutes ago, vortex said: 18z brings it back. ...and with more favorable timing, at that (triple point pushing in at closer to 21Z instead of 18Z). A frustrating amount of flip flopping for inside of 48 hours from the event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Another poorly timed event for the DVN cwa. Maybe some elevated hailers in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 While the severe threat is noteworthy, i feel like the flooding potential for the southern subforum could be catastrophic. 6-10" of rain along the ohio river from missouri to cincinnati. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 It's the first run to come in range, but 0Z HRRR washes out the northern IL portion of the setup with a big MCS (left over from what develops tomorrow evening) Wednesday morning. However, it does break out a few dangerous-looking supercells along the Ohio River by 23-00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 my area Wednesday evening: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: It's the first run to come in range, but 0Z HRRR washes out the northern IL portion of the setup with a big MCS (left over from what develops tomorrow evening) Wednesday morning. However, it does break out a few dangerous-looking supercells along the Ohio River by 23-00Z. I would be skeptical after how the HRRR overestimated the future radar on Sunday. I have noticed the HRRR seems to be a little more aggressive than reality lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Upscale evolution of tomorrow's convection will obviously play a big part into threat for Wednesday. I'm just not seeing any probabilistic elevation in SVR threat for N IL/N IN. But hell, I'm just a hobbyist. Wonder if SPC shaves enhanced considerably south in the D2 update incoming in ~1 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 hour ago, KeenerWx said: Upscale evolution of tomorrow's convection will obviously play a big part into threat for Wednesday. I'm just not seeing any probabilistic elevation in SVR threat for N IL/N IN. But hell, I'm just a hobbyist. Wonder if SPC shaves enhanced considerably south in the D2 update incoming in ~1 hr. ENH remains for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 3 minutes ago, yoda said: ENH remains for you Makes no sense that we get a D2 enhanced when sunday was a D2 enhanced and this is a much more potent setup. Unfortunately, this confuses the public and they will think its the same as sunday which was a relative bust to most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 6 minutes ago, yoda said: ENH remains for you Yep. Looks close to copy-paste of D3 issued Mon afternoon. I'll leave it to the experts even though I'm currently unconvinced of the elevated threat on the north end of the outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I agree with everyone else on the north end of this outlook. I’m in an enhanced here in SE WI and I just don’t see it. Hoping for some good boomers but I’m just not seeing this on the north end for svr potential but I’m just some guy larping as a meteorologist what do I know lol. Just not seeing it even in the northern LOT area even though it’s enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 same, should be some nice elevated wf boomers tho obv not the spinning wind we're all keen on itt, but heavy rain is also gonna be a major headline grabber 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 4 hours ago, largetornado said: Makes no sense that we get a D2 enhanced when sunday was a D2 enhanced and this is a much more potent setup. Unfortunately, this confuses the public and they will think it’s the same as sunday which was a relative bust to most people. Regardless, very strong synoptic ascent and low/deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes and Midwest region during the afternoon and evening. Higher severe probabilities for damaging winds and possibly tornadoes may be needed In future outlooks, as confidence in the warm frontal position and convective evolution are further resolved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 12z HRRR looks like it wants to have recovery over IL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Big swath of 75kt+ winds at 850mb early thursday AM on the latest HRRR, over western ohio. I'm thinking a moderate is coming at 1:30, probably for both wind and tor potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Would be exactly 1 year from this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 4 hours ago, TheNiño said: I agree with everyone else on the north end of this outlook. I’m in an enhanced here in SE WI and I just don’t see it. Hoping for some good boomers but I’m just not seeing this on the north end for svr potential but I’m just some guy larping as a meteorologist what do I know lol. Just not seeing it even in the northern LOT area even though it’s enhanced. Yep, feeling pretty meh for sig severe IMBY. Timing and doubtful recovery ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 tomorrow is intriguing...if evolution can play ball. will it? the morning trend is your friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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