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00Z model discussion


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Ah, glad I asked.... I was about to put it in a "camp" :arrowhead:

Either way, the low has to be deepening pretty fast, radar looks OK down in GA/SC

I think the low is deeper than any of the models had it at this time. The RUC might be picking up on this a little. It keeps wanting to nail DC at the end of its runs. May mean nothing in the end.

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1130 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC

...

THE NAM AND GFS ARE 3-4 HPA TOO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEMS

SURFACE LOW...BOTH MISSING OUT ON A LARGE ENOUGH 1008 HPA ISOBAR

THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT BY THE GUIDANCE...WHICH COULD

INDICATE THEIR SURFACE LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WILL BE

SLIGHTLY TOO WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

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From Sterling-

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT SNOWFALL WILL BE LESSTHAN CURRENTLY FCSTD AS 18Z MODELS AND THE CURRENTLY INCOMING 00ZNAM HAS TRENDED EWD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY FAST UP THE COAST PRIOR TO REACHING LONG ISLAND. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS DO NOT SHOW MUCH THAT THE MODELSARENT PICKING UP. THIS WOULD DISPLACE THE BEST DYNAMICS ANDHIGHEST PRECIP FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SHIFT MIGHT BE MINOR IN THE LARGE- SCALE PICTURE...THE EXPECTED TIGHT GRADIENTIN THE WRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL WAIT UNTILTHE REST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE COMES IN BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON WHETHER TO CHANGE FCSTD SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLY HEADLINES.WITH THIS IN MIND...CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS FROM THE 00Z NAMSHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE CSI BANDING ALONG THE I-95CORRIDOR /WRN SHORE SUN AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE LOW/MID LVL RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE DELMARVA. BANDING MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THE LATE EVE OR OVNGT ACROSS NE MD. MODELS TYPICALLY UNDER- PERFORM WITH THIS MESOSCALE PROCESS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DESPITE THE MODELS NOT QUITE DECIPHERING IT

.need that banding to occur for I-95 and points west....it usually does to some degree

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1130 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC

...

THE NAM AND GFS ARE 3-4 HPA TOO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEMS

SURFACE LOW...BOTH MISSING OUT ON A LARGE ENOUGH 1008 HPA ISOBAR

THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT BY THE GUIDANCE...WHICH COULD

INDICATE THEIR SURFACE LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WILL BE

SLIGHTLY TOO WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Finally they acknowlege

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Eh...what? That's a smack to the face towards a bunch of people here. People who do this full-time, and it's part of their jobs. Show them some respect please.

You are misguided sir, I do not smack them in the face, I simply point out what the major media outlets are parlaying. I only know Hurricane, who I have complimented, as relating to where he works, not any of the other mets. Please don't take me out of context.

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You are misguided sir, I do not smack them in the face, I simply point out what the major media outlets are parlaying. I only know Hurricane, who I have complimented, as relating to where he works, not any of the other mets. Please don't take me out of context.

Your probably right, I could have. I've had a little too much to drink tonight due to the holiday festivities, so pardon my arrogance. Everyone on this board, and even the weenies not involved with this online community are just hoping we all get a good snow storm tomorrow into Monday.

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1130 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC

...

THE NAM AND GFS ARE 3-4 HPA TOO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEMS

SURFACE LOW...BOTH MISSING OUT ON A LARGE ENOUGH 1008 HPA ISOBAR

THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT BY THE GUIDANCE...WHICH COULD

INDICATE THEIR SURFACE LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WILL BE

SLIGHTLY TOO WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Haha finally the weenies found a legitmate error that may give them more snow. That low is already starting to form a coma off the NE florida coast, You can see the precip patterns starting to curve on the FL and SC radars.

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Yikes I see signs this is going east...00Z NAM 06h forecast of QPF has enhanced precip area into western NC, but I think I see the precip on radar moving through S central NC right now. I hope this isn't the case.

I don't know, looking at the radar things are exploding down there; right off the Carolina coast you can tell it wants to sharply turn north.

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Yikes I see signs this is going east...00Z NAM 06h forecast of QPF has enhanced precip area into western NC, but I think I see the precip on radar moving through S central NC right now. I hope this isn't the case.

Maybe but looking at the overall radar depiction of the storm, it looks like its beginning to turn the corner to me.

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