SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hmmm ok, so it sounds to me in terms of models worst case scenario is probably 3 inches while best is maybe 10....Ill take it lol. We'll see when the better maps come out with all 6hr oanels but id guess the ukmet qpf is near 0.50-0.75 for bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I know usedtobe loves the SREFs, and that guy is probably the best there is at forecasting DC area precip. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SREF's And GFS Ensemble all the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ah, glad I asked.... I was about to put it in a "camp" Either way, the low has to be deepening pretty fast, radar looks OK down in GA/SC I think the low is deeper than any of the models had it at this time. The RUC might be picking up on this a little. It keeps wanting to nail DC at the end of its runs. May mean nothing in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SREF's And GFS Ensemble all the way... That plot cuts off some of the precip down here. I prefer this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think the low is deeper than any of the models had it at this time. The RUC might be picking up on this a little. It keeps wanting to nail DC at the end of its runs. May mean nothing in the end. It being a 12hr model, I have seen it catch on... but its airodynamics are nothing to compliment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jntkwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1130 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC ... THE NAM AND GFS ARE 3-4 HPA TOO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEMS SURFACE LOW...BOTH MISSING OUT ON A LARGE ENOUGH 1008 HPA ISOBAR THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT BY THE GUIDANCE...WHICH COULD INDICATE THEIR SURFACE LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY TOO WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I am hugging the SREFs tight tonight. I am too.. They are suppose to be really good verification wise anyway.. I guess they will be tested tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 From Sterling- THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT SNOWFALL WILL BE LESSTHAN CURRENTLY FCSTD AS 18Z MODELS AND THE CURRENTLY INCOMING 00ZNAM HAS TRENDED EWD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY FAST UP THE COAST PRIOR TO REACHING LONG ISLAND. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS DO NOT SHOW MUCH THAT THE MODELSARENT PICKING UP. THIS WOULD DISPLACE THE BEST DYNAMICS ANDHIGHEST PRECIP FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SHIFT MIGHT BE MINOR IN THE LARGE- SCALE PICTURE...THE EXPECTED TIGHT GRADIENTIN THE WRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL WAIT UNTILTHE REST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE COMES IN BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON WHETHER TO CHANGE FCSTD SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLY HEADLINES.WITH THIS IN MIND...CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS FROM THE 00Z NAMSHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE CSI BANDING ALONG THE I-95CORRIDOR /WRN SHORE SUN AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE LOW/MID LVL RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE DELMARVA. BANDING MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THE LATE EVE OR OVNGT ACROSS NE MD. MODELS TYPICALLY UNDER- PERFORM WITH THIS MESOSCALE PROCESS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DESPITE THE MODELS NOT QUITE DECIPHERING IT .need that banding to occur for I-95 and points west....it usually does to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1130 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC ... THE NAM AND GFS ARE 3-4 HPA TOO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEMS SURFACE LOW...BOTH MISSING OUT ON A LARGE ENOUGH 1008 HPA ISOBAR THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT BY THE GUIDANCE...WHICH COULD INDICATE THEIR SURFACE LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY TOO WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. Finally they acknowlege Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 So we have what, less than 20 minutes until the 0z euro comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 That plot cuts off some of the precip down here. I prefer this one: my bad didn't see the 72 hour time segment below I edited posr with this image and added the beautiful sref zoomed that i'm putting so much stock and hope into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Eh...what? That's a smack to the face towards a bunch of people here. People who do this full-time, and it's part of their jobs. Show them some respect please. You are misguided sir, I do not smack them in the face, I simply point out what the major media outlets are parlaying. I only know Hurricane, who I have complimented, as relating to where he works, not any of the other mets. Please don't take me out of context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 CRASS CMISS EEEEPPPPIIIICCCCCChttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_p60_060m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You are misguided sir, I do not smack them in the face, I simply point out what the major media outlets are parlaying. I only know Hurricane, who I have complimented, as relating to where he works, not any of the other mets. Please don't take me out of context. Your probably right, I could have. I've had a little too much to drink tonight due to the holiday festivities, so pardon my arrogance. Everyone on this board, and even the weenies not involved with this online community are just hoping we all get a good snow storm tomorrow into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yikes I see signs this is going east...00Z NAM 06h forecast of QPF has enhanced precip area into western NC, but I think I see the precip on radar moving through S central NC right now. I hope this isn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1130 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC ... THE NAM AND GFS ARE 3-4 HPA TOO WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEMS SURFACE LOW...BOTH MISSING OUT ON A LARGE ENOUGH 1008 HPA ISOBAR THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT BY THE GUIDANCE...WHICH COULD INDICATE THEIR SURFACE LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY TOO WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. Haha finally the weenies found a legitmate error that may give them more snow. That low is already starting to form a coma off the NE florida coast, You can see the precip patterns starting to curve on the FL and SC radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 CRASS CMISS EEEEPPPPIIIICCCCCChttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_p60_060m.gif But I am definitely sober enough to realize that, that is a fantasy in every one of our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yikes I see signs this is going east...00Z NAM 06h forecast of QPF has enhanced precip area into western NC, but I think I see the precip on radar moving through S central NC right now. I hope this isn't the case. The radar looks amazing to me. It is exploding in SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 CRASS CMISS EEEEPPPPIIIICCCCCC http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_p60_060m.gif fixed teh link. it looks like everything moved west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 CRASS CMISS EEEEPPPPIIIICCCCCChttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_p60_060m.gif Don't post that in the NY thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 fixed teh link. it looks like everything moved west. The CRAS is not a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 CRASS CMISS EEEEPPPPIIIICCCCCChttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_p60_060m.gif I saw that and spit out my egg nog, if only hey?? Wasnt there someone on Easterm that was real big on the CRAS model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 fixed teh link. it looks like everything moved west. I don't think I'd put too much stock in that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yikes I see signs this is going east...00Z NAM 06h forecast of QPF has enhanced precip area into western NC, but I think I see the precip on radar moving through S central NC right now. I hope this isn't the case. I don't know, looking at the radar things are exploding down there; right off the Carolina coast you can tell it wants to sharply turn north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I saw that and spit out my egg nog, if only hey?? Wasnt there someone on Easterm that was real big on the CRAS model? A huge weenie, perhaps. It is not a good model. IMO, it is often too wound-up and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yikes I see signs this is going east...00Z NAM 06h forecast of QPF has enhanced precip area into western NC, but I think I see the precip on radar moving through S central NC right now. I hope this isn't the case. Maybe but looking at the overall radar depiction of the storm, it looks like its beginning to turn the corner to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The radar looks amazing to me. It is exploding in SC/NC. Yes maybe but it's all moving NE from what it seems with nothing back filling into the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The radar looks amazing to me. It is exploding in SC/NC. Phin, it still looks like a NNE movement, with some back-building. I am trying to find something also, but not sure this will do it. But it is certainly noticeable in some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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