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00Z model discussion


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Looks like GFS nailed it, had Richmond at about .15 for the 6-hr period. NAM was a miss. Look at the QPF fields and the actual SE radar at this time. Envision the storm track, the enhancement of the sfc low and you can see (intiuitively) that the GFS and NAM seem to have a handle on it. At least I can. The only wild card is the low deepening and the precip field being enhanced to the west more for the MA to see more snow.

The GFS progged me for .15" QPF by this point?

It has been snowing here steadily since 3 PM. The temperature has been between 31-33 the whole time and I am closing in on 3.5" now. No model showed that.

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Think the problem is the storm is very progressive DC and BAL. It stalls off the Jersey Shore which means I wouldn.worry in Philly and the NW Burbs, 2" per hour rates will find you eventually. DC and Bal however, it's a quick shot hit or miss.

last run of SREF's showed a near stall off MD coast

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The GFS progged me for .15" QPF by this point?

It has been snowing here steadily since 3 PM. The temperature has been between 31-33 the whole time and I am closing in on 3.5" now. No model showed that.

Exactly my point..... Nam has busted so far, and GFS didnt have that much West of Richmond either.

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The GFS progged me for .15" QPF by this point?

It has been snowing here steadily since 3 PM. The temperature has been between 31-33 the whole time and I am closing in on 3.5" now. No model showed that.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_006m.gif

GFS gave you 2" until 1am and that isn't too far off...and if you check out the radar you can see you're snow is tapering off where you are. And you're on the northeast end of things so if it doesn't pick up overnight you're done as the system quickly accelerates up the seaboard.

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IMO the GFS/NAM have a consensus and ensemble modeling at short range isn't what the tool is supposed to be used for. Could it verify? Maybe. But my money is on the consensus of the GFS/NAM with QPF. At 24h it's almost spot on.

I think someone posted earlier the SREFs are second only to the Euro at this range in terms of QPF and beat it in some cases.

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IMO the GFS/NAM have a consensus and ensemble modeling at short range isn't what the tool is supposed to be used for. Could it verify? Maybe. But my money is on the consensus of the GFS/NAM with QPF. At 24h it's almost spot on.

Agree that ensemble modeling is more MR/LR, but why are you discounting the SREF (2nd to euro) & a Trend in the RUC? Both are slowing the low, its not like one run of deviation from the pack.

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