ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 that would be a 20:1 ratio yes? Verify whoever's measurement and I'll do the calcs for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like GFS nailed it, had Richmond at about .15 for the 6-hr period. NAM was a miss. Look at the QPF fields and the actual SE radar at this time. Envision the storm track, the enhancement of the sfc low and you can see (intiuitively) that the GFS and NAM seem to have a handle on it. At least I can. The only wild card is the low deepening and the precip field being enhanced to the west more for the MA to see more snow. The GFS progged me for .15" QPF by this point? It has been snowing here steadily since 3 PM. The temperature has been between 31-33 the whole time and I am closing in on 3.5" now. No model showed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Quickly, tropical systems are 10 mi wide, extratropical systems are 100 mi or more wide. It matters a lot at the model level. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 precip in SC is expanding nicely north into southern NC http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Think the problem is the storm is very progressive DC and BAL. It stalls off the Jersey Shore which means I wouldn.worry in Philly and the NW Burbs, 2" per hour rates will find you eventually. DC and Bal however, it's a quick shot hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The GFS progged me for .15" QPF by this point? It has been snowing here steadily since 3 PM. The temperature has been between 31-33 the whole time and I am closing in on 3.5" now. No model showed that. Yea, a solid 3-4" already across much of the Richmond area so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Think the problem is the storm is very progressive DC and BAL. It stalls off the Jersey Shore which means I wouldn.worry in Philly and the NW Burbs, 2" per hour rates will find you eventually. DC and Bal however, it's a quick shot hit or miss. last run of SREF's showed a near stall off MD coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The GFS progged me for .15" QPF by this point? It has been snowing here steadily since 3 PM. The temperature has been between 31-33 the whole time and I am closing in on 3.5" now. No model showed that. Exactly my point..... Nam has busted so far, and GFS didnt have that much West of Richmond either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS mean looks better than the operational down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The GFS progged me for .15" QPF by this point? It has been snowing here steadily since 3 PM. The temperature has been between 31-33 the whole time and I am closing in on 3.5" now. No model showed that. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_006m.gif GFS gave you 2" until 1am and that isn't too far off...and if you check out the radar you can see you're snow is tapering off where you are. And you're on the northeast end of things so if it doesn't pick up overnight you're done as the system quickly accelerates up the seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS/NAM or SREF/RUC? One of them has to nail it, eh, right? I always remember the RUC bringing ZR into DCA/Balti last winter, always west. I've never liked the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS/NAM or SREF/RUC? One of them has to nail it, eh, right? I always remember the RUC bringing ZR into DCA/Balti last winter, always west. I've never liked the RUC. It has often nailed things around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS/NAM or SREF/RUC? One of them has to nail it, eh, right? I always remember the RUC bringing ZR into DCA/Balti last winter, always west. I've never liked the RUC. It could be in the middle which is the GFS Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 IMO the GFS/NAM have a consensus and ensemble modeling at short range isn't what the tool is supposed to be used for. Could it verify? Maybe. But my money is on the consensus of the GFS/NAM with QPF. At 24h it's almost spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 IMO the GFS/NAM have a consensus and ensemble modeling at short range isn't what the tool is supposed to be used for. Could it verify? Maybe. But my money is on the consensus of the GFS/NAM with QPF. At 24h it's almost spot on. I think someone posted earlier the SREFs are second only to the Euro at this range in terms of QPF and beat it in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It has often nailed things around here. Thats what I'm hoping for dude. If the SREF wasn't in the same camp, I'd throw it out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It could be in the middle which is the GFS Mean Yeah, GFS ensemble mean wetter. .5-.75 for DC/BAL, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Not that it necessarily matters, but for info purposes, what does the UKIE do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think someone posted earlier the SREFs are second only to the Euro at this range in terms of QPF and beat it in some cases. Yes Will earlier stated that the SREFs are second in verification only behind the EURO. Let's pray that is the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 IMO the GFS/NAM have a consensus and ensemble modeling at short range isn't what the tool is supposed to be used for. Could it verify? Maybe. But my money is on the consensus of the GFS/NAM with QPF. At 24h it's almost spot on. Agree that ensemble modeling is more MR/LR, but why are you discounting the SREF (2nd to euro) & a Trend in the RUC? Both are slowing the low, its not like one run of deviation from the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 How does the JMA do in this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Not that it necessarily matters, but for info purposes, what does the UKIE do? Well west of where it has been, but doesn't do much here. Maybe .35 or so. Operational models hate us right now. We need to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 How does the JMA do in this range? The JMA is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think someone posted earlier the SREFs are second only to the Euro at this range in terms of QPF and beat it in some cases. Nothing would make me happier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 How does the JMA do in this range? You mean the JI MA , it is not a model that is trusted at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Nothing would make me happier! I know usedtobe loves the SREFs, and that guy is probably the best there is at forecasting DC area precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 UKIE is a beast - truly astonosing from where its been out in the Atlantic this past week - which feels like ages ago Not that it necessarily matters, but for info purposes, what does the UKIE do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well west of where it has been, but doesn't do much here. Maybe .35 or so. Operational models hate us right now. We need to deal with it. Hmmm ok, so it sounds to me in terms of models worst case scenario is probably 3 inches while best is maybe 10....Ill take it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ah, glad I asked.... I was about to put it in a "camp" Either way, the low has to be deepening pretty fast, radar looks OK down in GA/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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