Yeoman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Radar is showing a definite shift more northerly with the trajectory of the precip over the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Upper level flow needs to tilt negative and soon, and radar needs to fill in more back out in TN/KY/WV and make more of a northward push in order SN to make it west of I-95 for DC area. This may happen, but I'm not seeing it quite yet. That said, the sfc low is still way down in FL/GA so we still have time. But not a lot of time. If you look at the detailed view here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif the surface low may have a predilection to follow the surface warm front and thus the low will be easily 100 miles off Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Radar is showing a definite shift more northerly with the trajectory of the precip over the past hour I see that too, could be something, or could just be a blip. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 If you look at the detailed view here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif the surface low may have a predilection to follow the surface warm front and thus the low will be easily 100 miles off Norfolk. If it takes that track no one gets any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 precip in S GA just starting to build to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow a lot stronger than 18z at 12 in terms of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 gfs at 12 looks a tad more east to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS going to miss the MA through 12. S NE the place to be, and E NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Upper level flow needs to tilt negative and soon, and radar needs to fill in more back out in TN/KY/WV and make more of a northward push in order SN to make it west of I-95 for DC area. This may happen, but I'm not seeing it quite yet. That said, the sfc low is still way down in FL/GA so we still have time. But not a lot of time. The last few frames of the Natl composite seems to suggest it's starting. I'm keying in on NE TN and watching the precip move from NW/SE and just over the ridge from SW/NE. I think once this swings down a few more degrees, it starts. Maybe I had too many beers. I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS isn't looking very good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM nailed it from 36 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS is not good PHL south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS is not good PHL south... writing has been on the wall all night SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM nailed it from 36 in. It modeled the phase as sub-optimal for the Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 We shall see what nails what come Monday morning. There are other models besides NAM and GFS as someguy has pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 We shall see what nails what come Monday morning. There are other models besides NAM and GFS as soneguy has pointed out. Aside from the SREFs, there has been a definite bad trend for PHL south today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Actually, it is not any different than 18Z down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like 2-3" for DC metro per both NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NYC gets absolutely murdered this run. 1.75 inches of qpf all snow I think...they are going to possibly get two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Actually, it is not any different than 18Z down here. East Balt. Co. into Harford Co. should probably get 2 or 3 inches more than Westminster if not moreso. The big last minute surprise could still be training/banding. 1 to 3 during the day and another 1 to 3 at night, high end east. Breaks in the clouds by 11 am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 People act like the models are exactly right. What did we see unfold over the last few days? Model insanity. So the models are a bit east tonight? Does that mean they are right? Maybe Maybe not. We can see this storm come west then modeled of course. Chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Aside from the SREFs, there has been a definite bad trend for PHL south today. Very true, but the modeling has been goofy for this storm for the past week. Wes thinks set up is better than what models show....I'll go with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Actually, it is not any different than 18Z down here. Couple things to note, obviously on the large scale models, things have been trending downhill. RUC shows deform possibilities tomorrow aftn and SREF's, the second most accurate at this stage are rock solid and its rare for them to be incorrect this far out. 0z GFS misinitialized the low by 8mb this run, so the weaker storm initially would mean a weaker track. All and all, the mesoscale models are good for you and I phin, with the exception being the NAM. Radar does look pretty good additionally so that is something to watch as well. Our main focuses at this point: Extremely short range models (HRRR/RRR/RUC) coupled with nowcasting the radar display and trough tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 The piece of energy diving into Arkansas is really going to capture the storm, it is a thing of beauty to behold on the WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Aside from the SREFs, there has been a definite bad trend for PHL south today. Just to be clear, you're not including PHL in that, are you? Because verbatim we make out just fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does it matter at all that the GFS is showing an initial pressure of 1009mb for the low pressure near Florida, when it is more like 1005mb (via Cross City, FL current conditions)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does it matter at all that the GFS is showing an initial pressure of 1009mb for the low pressure near Florida, when it is more like 1005mb (via Cross City, FL current conditions)? Yes, it probably will matter. But how much does it matter is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does it matter at all that the GFS is showing an initial pressure of 1009mb for the low pressure near Florida, when it is more like 1005mb (via Cross City, FL current conditions)? You'd have to compare it to 00z, which is 7PM. Even though the GFS doesn't start outputting until around 1030, the initialization is showing conditions at 7PM Eastern time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does it matter at all that the GFS is showing an initial pressure of 1009mb for the low pressure near Florida, when it is more like 1005mb (via Cross City, FL current conditions)? I think it matters for me down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just to be clear, you're not including PHL in that, are you? Because verbatim we make out just fine... Yeah, you guys look pretty good to me. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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