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00Z model discussion


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Upper level flow needs to tilt negative and soon, and radar needs to fill in more back out in TN/KY/WV and make more of a northward push in order SN to make it west of I-95 for DC area. This may happen, but I'm not seeing it quite yet. That said, the sfc low is still way down in FL/GA so we still have time. But not a lot of time.

If you look at the detailed view here:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif

the surface low may have a predilection to follow the surface warm front

and thus the low will be easily 100 miles off Norfolk.

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Upper level flow needs to tilt negative and soon, and radar needs to fill in more back out in TN/KY/WV and make more of a northward push in order SN to make it west of I-95 for DC area. This may happen, but I'm not seeing it quite yet. That said, the sfc low is still way down in FL/GA so we still have time. But not a lot of time.

The last few frames of the Natl composite seems to suggest it's starting. I'm keying in on NE TN and watching the precip move from NW/SE and just over the ridge from SW/NE. I think once this swings down a few more degrees, it starts. Maybe I had too many beers. I don't know.

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Actually, it is not any different than 18Z down here.

East Balt. Co. into Harford Co. should probably get 2 or 3 inches more than Westminster if not moreso.

The big last minute surprise could still be training/banding.

1 to 3 during the day and another 1 to 3 at night, high end east.

Breaks in the clouds by 11 am Monday.

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Actually, it is not any different than 18Z down here.

Couple things to note, obviously on the large scale models, things have been trending downhill. RUC shows deform possibilities tomorrow aftn and SREF's, the second most accurate at this stage are rock solid and its rare for them to be incorrect this far out. 0z GFS misinitialized the low by 8mb this run, so the weaker storm initially would mean a weaker track. All and all, the mesoscale models are good for you and I phin, with the exception being the NAM. Radar does look pretty good additionally so that is something to watch as well.

Our main focuses at this point: Extremely short range models (HRRR/RRR/RUC) coupled with nowcasting the radar display and trough tilt.

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Does it matter at all that the GFS is showing an initial pressure of 1009mb for the low pressure near Florida, when it is more like 1005mb (via Cross City, FL current conditions)?

You'd have to compare it to 00z, which is 7PM. Even though the GFS doesn't start outputting until around 1030, the initialization is showing conditions at 7PM Eastern time.

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