Delaware Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 00z NAM reduces by QPF by .25 to .50 ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 says who? Seriously, I remember clearly the 12z run on the morning of 2/5/10. My eyes almost popped out of my head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is only for a 24 hr period but the sref is really pretty tightly clustered over the mid atlantic. Wes: anytime I post in a thread that you are visiting, I should have a disclaimer about having no professional met. credentials. Having said that, the NAM, to me, says that the storm phases three hours too late to favor the Balto/Wash region. It seems that we are in the better 700 mb moisture convergence for six hours at best. Not surprised, this has been a reoccurring theme all week. Comments/corrections appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The 1" line still makes it to the Delaware River. NYC-BOS, sadly have been destroyed and while it's still a sizable snow event for DC and BWI, I am not sure they'd be happy if this verified verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Mutiple models insisting on a Bullseye right over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is the worst thread I've ever read Seriously, folks, step up your analysis or let the people that know what they're doing handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is the worst thread I've ever read +2.. Nam is west of the 12z run.. Anyone comparing to the typical "qpf bomb" 18z run to the 0z needs to re evaluate. we're about 9hrs from this. Start relying on the now cast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Here west of NYC in jersey it gives us 12". Not bad....A general 10-12" looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 +2.. Nam is west of the 12z run.. Anyone comparing to the typical "qpf bomb" 18z run to the 0z needs to re evaluate. we're about 9hrs from this. Start relying on the now cast.. It's DC and BAL members freaking out. They're right on the edge, A 20 mile shift SE is horrible. I'm glad to be in CT for the week, deal is sealed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wes: anytime I post in a thread that you are visiting, I should have a disclaimer about having no professional met. credentials. Having said that, the NAM, to me, says that the storm phases three hours too late to favor the Balto/Wash region. It seems that we are in the better 700 mb moisture convergence for six hours at best. Not surprised, this has been a reoccurring theme all week. Comments/corrections appreciated. I have no idea what the nam means, it could be that it's better resolution is helping it or that the convective feedback is hurting it. We won't know until verification. The sref members are west of its track but at this time range, I don't know what that means except we wait and see. I'm glad jason kept his 3-6 for the dc area and think at this point that is what you ride. I wouldn't want to have the 6-10 out right now though if the srefs are right, tht might be the best call. NY and CT look primed no matter what model you use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 While this 00z NAM is less encouraging, lets wait til the 00z GFS and see what it says.... the 21z SREF looked great still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 While this 00z NAM is less encouraging, lets wait til the 00z GFS and see what it says.... the 21z SREF looked great still 4 runs in a row they have held steady Will, ORHWX, posted yesterday that the SREF's have 2nd best verification numbers only to Euro that's worth something unless this is the one storm where they cr@p the bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Nothing raises an eyebrow regarding the data ingest. Also remember additional RECON data was suggested by DR earlier... NCEP Operational Status Message Sun Dec 26 01:30:28 2010 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 260129ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD0129Z SUN DEC 26 2010THE NCEP 00Z MODEL CYCLE IS OFF AND RUNNING ON TIME WITHGOOD DATA COVERAGE. INCLUDED WERE...14/AK...31 CANADIAN69 CONUS/3 MEXICAN AND 2 CARIBBEAN REPORTS IN TIME FORTHE NAM START. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...NKX/72293 - SHORT REPORT TO 446MB.ILX/74560 - DELAYED TO A FLIGHT EQ FAILUE.MEX/76679 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE.KPP/78970 - 10159. REPORT NOT AVAILABLE.SPECIAL RAOBS...CHH -- 12/26/06Z/18Z.OKX -- 12/26/18Z.LWX -- 12/26/06Z.MHX -- 12/26/06Z.NCEP SENDS THX TO THOSE STATIONS FOR VOLUNTEERING SPECIALRAOBS.$$WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 4 runs in a row they have held steady Will, ORHWX, posted yesterday that the SREF's have 2nd best verification numbers only to Euro that's worth something unless this is the one storm where they cr@p the bed It does have the second best verification. The 01Z ruc has a different looking vert vel field and the low tucked closer to the coast.. It's not the greatest mdoel but appears to be west of the nam with decetn uvv moving into our area. Best just to hold tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It does have the second best verification. The 01Z ruc has a different looking vert vel field and the low tucked closer to the coast.. It's not the greatest mdoel but appears to be west of the nam with decetn uvv moving into our area. Best just to hold tight. Thank you Wes for your knowledge and commentary on this storm. I would like the storm tucked closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 4 runs in a row they have held steady Will, ORHWX, posted yesterday that the SREF's have 2nd best verification numbers only to Euro that's worth something unless this is the one storm where they cr@p the bed Yeah, and at the 1" QPF threshold they are actually better than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The GFS has been pretty consistent in regards to the coverage of snow and how far NW it spreads. We all know from experience that in MOST storms, places in NJ, for example...like West Milford always get heavier banding and pick up 5-10" more than surrounding areas, sometimes even more. The NAM is west of it's 12Z run, just a bit east of its 18z.....the gfs has held its coverage of the snow run after run and brought the western extent way into PA and NY state....It's just changed where the bullseye of QPF is (though not necessarily where the highest amounts will be, as stated before).....I think we can expect the highest QPF amounts from central jersey on into central long island right up NE into new england...Probably 1.5-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Thank you Wes for your knowledge and commentary on this storm. I would like the storm tucked closer to the coast. The ruc is not good so its slightly more tucked in look may jsut mislead but I thought I toss it into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The ruc is not good so its slightly more tucked in look may jsut mislead but I thought I toss it into the mix. I love the idea that in this modern era, the best minds and computers still struggle to understand nature even in the final 18 to 24 hours before a large storm tips its hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The GFS has been pretty consistent in regards to the coverage of snow and how far NW it spreads. We all know from experience that in MOST storms, places in NJ, for example...like West Milford always get heavier banding and pick up 5-10" more than surrounding areas, sometimes even more. The NAM is west of it's 12Z run, just a bit east of its 18z.....the gfs has held its coverage of the snow run after run and brought the western extent way into PA and NY state....It's just changed where the bullseye of QPF is (though not necessarily where the highest amounts will be, as stated before).....I think we can expect the highest QPF amounts from central jersey on into central long island right up NE into new england...Probably 1.5-2" You gotta love how the hilly terrain there and the forcing associated with coastal storms almost always results in a hyper band that sets up around I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 I love the idea that in this modern era, the best minds and computers still struggle to understand nature even in the final 18 to 24 hours before a large storm tips its hand. It's the wonder of nature! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The ruc is not good so its slightly more tucked in look may jsut mislead but I thought I toss it into the mix. to me the RUC looks slower, stronger and slightly further SE (like 20 miles)..... the 500 setup is looking better and better tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 to me the RUC looks slower, stronger and slightly further SE (like 20 miles)..... the 500 setup is looking better and better tho. ILook at the 700h vertical motion, it looks better but its not that good model so I probably shouldn't have even mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 ILook at the 700h vertical motion, it looks better but its not that good model so I probably shouldn't have even mentioned it. are u saying the ruc is not very good at 9-18 hour range with mesoscale features? i thought it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This storm essentially needs to pull a Jan 25, 2000 to give DC sig snows, otherwise amounts may come in less than currently forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This storm essentially needs to pull a Jan 25, 2000 to give DC sig snows, otherwise amounts may come in less than currently forecasted. Any analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 are u saying the ruc is not very good at 9-18 hour range with mesoscale features? i thought it was? I like it at shorter time range, 18 hrs is getting too far out in time for me to like it but it does get mby in the deformation zone by 19Z tomorrow and keeps it there for at least 2 hours so today, I'm going to like ti (said with tongue in cheek). I have seen it do a decent job with deformation zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hey I know this isn't a regional thread but after the rollercoaster ride we have endured, folks up in S NE, enjoy your snow! I'm in N VA, and won't get much but glad to see you getting your share after last year! I hope the GFS comes a bit west and at least more brushes the MA. Seems other than the SREF we're seeing consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Any analysis? Upper level flow needs to tilt negative and soon, and radar needs to fill in more back out in TN/KY/WV and make more of a northward push in order SN to make it west of I-95 for DC area. This may happen, but I'm not seeing it quite yet. That said, the sfc low is still way down in FL/GA so we still have time. But not a lot of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Upper level flow needs to tilt negative and soon, and radar needs to fill in more back out in TN/KY/WV and make more of a northward push in order SN to make it west of I-95 for DC area. This may happen, but I'm not seeing it quite yet. That said, the sfc low is still way down in FL/GA so we still have time. But not a lot of time. Sfc obs say light snow from wallops NW into SW PA and as far west as central KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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