00Z model discussion

[kurtstack]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:13 AM, lsukev5 said:

SLP at least down to 1002mb (via buoy) 00Z NAM and GFS both had it at 1004 at 06Z

So you are saying maybe the RUC is on to something with the early bombing scenario?

[chademer07]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:13 AM, C.A.P.E. said:

you mean west

Pretty sure he means east.

[lsukev]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:14 AM, kurtstack said:

So you are saying maybe the RUC is on to something with the early bombing scenario?

I'm simply proving true what the HPC said about initialization errors in the NAM and GFS's 0Z runs

[kurtstack]

RUC now down to 984 mb low stalled and just east of maryland coast. Yikes!

[mitchnick]

of course the consolation prize since we're not getting the 1-2' is that its going to be in the 40's to around 50, if not warmer, to accompany the rains in the next week thanks to the MW mega storm

[lsukev]

I also want to point out that the buoy reported 1002mb and falling "rapidly"

[Delaware]

would someone plz post the RUC maps/qpf and all that. much appreciated. im assuming its still RUC/SREF vs GFS/NAM/EURO...

[negative-nao]

is tombo doing the play by play of the Euro tonight ?

[goldstar]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:18 AM, lsukev5 said:

I also want to point out that the buoy reported 1002mb and falling "rapidly"

Can you link the buoy so that us weenies can swim out and hug it? No seriously, I do want to see the data from the buoy, I believe you, but am having a heart attack...

[CAPE]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:15 AM, chademer07 said:

Pretty sure he means east.

odd. places east of I-95 should be fine....esp towards the bay and east of the bay....

[Quincy]

I wouldn't nit pick over RUC details, especially since it has hourly panels. It almost gives a false impression that it's vastly different than it really is from the other solutions.

[lsukev]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:19 AM, goldstar said:

Can you link the buoy so that us weenies can swim out and hug it? No seriously, I do want to see the data from the buoy, I believe you, but am having a heart attack...

Buoy

[real]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:19 AM, negative-nao said:

is tombo doing the play by play of the Euro tonight ?

Pretty sure the Euro is long over. It's on to another last best hope and nowcasting.

[negative-nao]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:22 AM, real said:

Pretty sure the Euro is long over. It's on to another last best hope and nowcasting.

ok. Well I have to plow by Rutgers Stadium piscataway Nj. I just check the noaa local forecast they are saying 12-18 i guess i can take that.

[CAPE]

per sterling there is csi banding potential shown on the NAM and other guidance....this may set up along I-95...its often not captured well by the models and can can increase the low qpf numbers well above what the models are showing.

[PhineasC]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:22 AM, Quincy said:

I wouldn't nit pick over RUC details, especially since it has hourly panels. It almost gives a false impression that it's vastly different than it really is from the other solutions.

It is definitely different down here.

[MidlothianWX]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:18 AM, lsukev5 said:

I also want to point out that the buoy reported 1002mb and falling "rapidly"

There is one further up the coast reporting 1001mb.

[CAPE]

stop over analyzing the radar..once the low gets cranking off the coast the flow will back and the CCB is what will produce the snow.

[nzucker]

I wouldn't freak out if you're in the Mid Atlantic...lows that trend stronger compared to models usually trend further west. I think you'll be OK.

[lsukev]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:26 AM, MidlothianWX said:

There is one further up the coast reporting 1001mb.

So the NAM and GFS were both off 2-3mb at this point. That has to translate into something.

[kurtstack]

Thing of beauty for the graspers in and around dca/bwi

[joey]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:31 AM, lsukev5 said:

So the NAM and GFS were both off 2-3mb at this point. That has to translate into something.

again 6z is only 1-2 hours away.

[lsukev]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:35 AM, joey said:

again 6z is only 1-2 hours away.

I'm not sure I understand you. On the 0Z run, they showed 1004mb now, meaning 06Z

[Quincy]

FWIW, 00z ECMWF hinting at dryslot issues for Long Island? (;

probably not, but someone who has pcpn graphics could shed some light

[WeatherFox]

  On 12/26/2010 at 6:47 AM, Quincy said:

FWIW, 00z ECMWF hinting at dryslot issues for Long Island? (;

probably not, but someone who has pcpn graphics could shed some light

Right now the light snow that is moving northeastward is evaporating before it hits the ground by me in Queens New York and most of NYC I believe. I hate Virga. The column should moisten and we'll be in business in several hours down the road. Maybe they will start seeing light snow further east on Long Island sooner.

[Quincy]

  On 12/26/2010 at 7:01 AM, WeatherFox said:

Right now the light snow that is moving northeastward is evaporating before it hits the ground by me in Queens New York and most of NYC I believe. I hate Virga. The column should moisten and I'll be in business in several hours down the road. Maybe they will start seeing light snow further east on Long Island sooner.

I'm looking at the 24h forecast for 00z MON

[WeatherFox]

  On 12/26/2010 at 7:04 AM, Quincy said:

I'm looking at the 24h forecast for 00z MON

Okay, I understood. What areas on Long Island (central, eastern, north or south shore)?

Thanks!

[Quincy]

  On 12/26/2010 at 7:07 AM, WeatherFox said:

Okay, I understood. What areas on Long Island (central, eastern, north or south shore)?

Thanks!

eastern LI

the EURO 700mb RH field looks suspiciously far NW.

I'm not sure how serious I would take the 24hr EC though.

[WeatherFox]

Thanks, & agree. Someone will get a dry slot. Time will tell.

  On 12/26/2010 at 7:13 AM, Quincy said:

eastern LI

the EURO 700mb RH field looks suspiciously far NW.

I'm not sure how serious I would take the 24hr EC though.