Bluescat1 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fpc.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 nam has initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 out to 12, looks fairly similiar to my untrained eye, maybe a tad further west with the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Not impressed. At 12 hrs, best vertical motion at 700 mb is east of the Rt 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 out to 12, looks fairly similiar to my untrained eye, maybe a tad further west with the low It has slowed down by a fair margin, good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 digging more; definitely west; precip in areas it doesn't show.. did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 better at 18, lt snow over wide area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 out to 18....do not like Not sure what the NAM is doing here, SREFs are much wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Not sure what the NAM is doing here, SREFs are much wetter. Wetter, stronger, and slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wetter, stronger, and slightly west. NAM? Precip not looking great at simulated radar at 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wetter, stronger, and slightly west. This might be convective feedback issues but you cannot entirely disregard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 How do people think this is west? The 850 is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM? Precip not looking great at simulated radar at 18. No, I was referring to the 21z SREF (vs. its 15z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 yep, not really seeing a diff here. to me it looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 how do the 21z sref's look?u say wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 at 24 the low looks like its gone east from 18z....at least thats what im seeing <BR><BR>qpf has moved east by a decent margin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 yep, not really seeing a diff here. to me it looks the same. The NAM has a low track like the globals but a more compressed QPF field, not going to worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 how do the 21z sref's look?u say wetter? Yes, they are in the 18z thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 at 24 the low looks like its gone east from 18z....at least thats what im seeing <BR><BR>qpf has moved east by a decent margin... Yup... and less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 yep, not really seeing a diff here. to me it looks the same. Look again. Best moisture convergence at 700 skirts the Chesapeake Bay. Balt/Wash is fringed. 1" to 3" or 2" to 4" Dulles 1 to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 how do the 21z sref's look?u say wetter? The 1.00" 24hr precip line now covers all of NJ. It is stronger and slightly further west. The 15z run had a sub-984 at 36hrs...at 30hrs on 21z it is sub-980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 how do the 21z sref's look?u say wetter? This is only for a 24 hr period but the sref is really pretty tightly clustered over the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'd toss it if the 0z GFS doesn't agree. This model is so sensitive to changes at H5 and can sometimes make extrapolate things too much through convective feedback. Are you kidding man? We are getting into the time when mesoscale features are crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'd toss it if the 0z GFS doesn't agree. This model is so sensitive to changes at H5 and can sometimes make extrapolate things too much through convective feedback. Agreed. I won't sweat this too much if the GFS holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Are you kidding man? We are getting into the time when mesoscale features are crucial. That too..we are getting into NAM deadly range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Are you kidding man? We are getting into the time when mesoscale features are crucial. The low movement is so erratic and it kind of hooks it around the Outer Banks because of a weird mesocale s/w feature at H5. I just don't know if this will verify because things don't go wrong untill the low is south of HSE. Radar and pressure maps are promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Nam almost always chops totals once almost upon the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The low movement is so erratic and it kind of hooks it around the Outer Banks because of a weird mesocale s/w feature at H5. Perhaps. But the reason to throw it out isn't if the "GFS holds serve" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Nam almost always chops totals once almost upon the event... says who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I wouldn't toss it quite yet, NAM is a short term model, it can sometimes perform a lot better then other long range models a day ahead of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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