March 30 Severe Weather

[nvck]

Probably thread worthy given the huge d3 enhanced covering a lot of the southern sub, and the slight risk all the way into MI. Interesting that the SPC keeps mentioning the significant hail probs as almost the primary risk with this event. Just rare to see this far east I feel.

 

[sbnwx85]

Day 3 enhanced and a large Day 6 slight risk. Times are good, friends.

[Crowbar]

In the slight risk area and not real far from the enhanced risk - have to work Sunday so guess I'll do that from home.  No point in having my car getting pelted plus want quick access to the basement if necessary. 

[andyhb]

Could be a pretty nasty nocturnal threat with this one especially closer to the Ohio River.

[Spartman]

With all that cloud cover around the entire weekend, that could actually limit severe weather for Sunday.

[Chinook]

HRRR got a little excited for NW Ohio here. Still, though, the convection allowing models aren't too great for a 42 hour forecast

[Jackstraw]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

HRRR got a little excited for NW Ohio here. Still, though, the convection allowing models aren't too great for a 42 hour forecast

Yeah, getting more and more unimpressed with this one than I was a couple days ago. Thought we had a slight chance of something locally because of a few things lining up with decent dew's here for the first time this year. Everything this Spring so far has come through at 3am after it's pissed it's vinegar. This ones starting to look like photogenic "scary" shelf cloud cool to look at storm lol. Potential small QLCS spin ups around here anyway. Better chances down around the river and south per usual. It is Spring so you ever know 

[Chinook]

As I mentioned before, I think the CIPS web site was down for quite some time last year, but it is back. The top analogs for tomorrow night have some severe reports. This highlighted one was a worse analog. It's Mar 1, 2017, with a 1000-storm report day (Midwest sector analogs)

 

 

if you choose the southeast/south central zone in CIPS, then the computations are different, with Mar 31, 2016 being a good analog, high storm report analog day

[nvck]

At a glance, 00z hrrr looks like an uptrend in terms of morning convection decreasing around the IN/KY/OH area and a little bit more destabilization

[KeenerWx]

Looking like any solid initiation will either occur overtop or most likely east/southeast of MBY. While severe threat should be low locally, hopeful that we can still get a small serving of nature's snap, crackle, pop. Any flavor of thunderstorm is appreciated and distances away from another rather forgettable winter. 

[King James]

Crickets

[SolidIcewx]

ENH now into southern/SE MI

[Chinook]

17 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

ENH now into southern/SE MI

45% non-hatched wind threat up to MI/IN

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, King James said:

Crickets

Miss east. Maybe some comma head mammies?

[Roger Smith]

STL-PIA-ORD-SBN-IND-EVV-STL region can expect tornado watch for 15z-00z and a significant outbreak. NE IL s of ORD looks to be in danger of F2-4 development.

Expect meso discussion to be issued. 

[MidwestChaser]

22 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

STL-PIA-ORD-SBN-IND-EVV-STL region can expect tornado watch for 15z-00z and a significant outbreak. NE IL s of ORD looks to be in danger of F2-4 development.

Expect meso discussion to be issued. 

No.

[nwohweather]

STL-PIA-ORD-SBN-IND-EVV-STL region can expect tornado watch for 15z-00z and a significant outbreak. NE IL s of ORD looks to be in danger of F2-4 development.
Expect meso discussion to be issued. 

EF4’s? What in the world, maybe if we doubled the instability and SRH at the lower levels I could agree with you. That EML should help out a good bit for this area, wouldn’t be shocked to see even hurricane force wind reports this evening around sunset

[nvck]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

STL-PIA-ORD-SBN-IND-EVV-STL region can expect tornado watch for 15z-00z and a significant outbreak. NE IL s of ORD looks to be in danger of F2-4 development.

Expect meso discussion to be issued. 

Not so sure about this one...

[Powerball]

No one can hype up an event like Roger...

[Malacka11]

Memes aside good clearing going on

[homedis]

Yeah lots less AM convection than anticipated. Suns peeking out in NE IL.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Enhanced expanded again 

[King James]

Yeah lots less AM convection than anticipated. Suns peeking out in NE IL.

Good bit of sun here in eastern IKK. Humid as well.

[Stevo6899]

57 minutes ago, Powerball said:

No one can hype up an event like Roger...

Hope he doesn't have a social media page with followers....

Dreary, drizzle with overcast. Not seeing much this far north but who knows. We seem to get the best storms when we least expect it around here.

[SolidIcewx]

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Hope he doesn't have a social media page with followers....

Dreary, drizzle with overcast. Not seeing much this far north but who knows. We seem to get the best storms when we least expect it around here.

ENH now up into the thumb. Looking better for us as the day goes on. Just need some peeks of sunshine.

[Chicago Storm]

STL-PIA-ORD-SBN-IND-EVV-STL region can expect tornado watch for 15z-00z and a significant outbreak. NE IL s of ORD looks to be in danger of F2-4 development.
Expect meso discussion to be issued. 

never change.

[Chicago Storm]

Generally, looks like a meh situation around here.

See no reason there should be an enhanced into the metro. Even the slight is probably a stretch.

[KeenerWx]

Looks likely that a new watch will be issued for NE IL/N IN/SW MI.

[Powerball]

15 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Looks likely that a new watch will be issued for NE IL/N IN/SW MI.

 

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1906402317005422997?t=SZ2bpund_HP6E8IJOlQ2jw&s=19

[hthe620110]

Great job Roger. Correct as always.