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April Medium/ Long Range


Weather Will
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5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Ok, will the northern tier get the rain on Tuesday?  WB 12Z GFS

IMG_5628.png

Unfortunately the other global guidance is less impressive, and the ens guidance as a whole doesnt agree. Once again a case of the GFS op offering a solution that likely doesn't come to fruition.

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16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

One more shift south so it hits the usual suspects lol

This is now in the short range, so not sure why its being posted here. This rain is associated with a cold front(convection), and a marginal risk for severe currently. Depending on timing and dynamics, this could end up being upgraded.

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Sunday and Monday will end up being the cooler days when assessing the Fri-Mon time frame. The frontal effects will be most felt across the northern half of the region with a pretty sharp delineation somewhere bisecting Central MD. I can see it making it as far as the Potomac, so basically a lean to climo. 70s and 80s for Fri-Sat, 60s and 70s for Sun-Mon. Can't say I hate it. I'll take that over 40s and 50s any day. 

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21 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sunday and Monday will end up being the cooler days when assessing the Fri-Mon time frame. The frontal effects will be most felt across the northern half of the region with a pretty sharp delineation somewhere bisecting Central MD. I can see it making it as far as the Potomac, so basically a lean to climo. 70s and 80s for Fri-Sat, 60s and 70s for Sun-Mon. Can't say I hate it. I'll take that over 40s and 50s any day. 

Sounds like I will be happy to be down in Pasadena on Sunday for the holiday. :) 

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On 4/16/2025 at 11:06 AM, MillvilleWx said:

Question on how the backdoor front idea plays out Sunday-Tuesday next week, but this Friday and Saturday look great. I work, but I get off earlier on that desk, so I’m gonna get out and enjoy it. 

Funny how just a couple months ago the LR forecast for the Midwest was for a worsening drought lol. 

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5 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Funny how just a couple months ago the LR forecast for the Midwest was for a worsening drought lol. 

I believe it might have been a tad more West into the Plains versus the Midwest. At least a couple sources I follow were targeting the Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma for a developing and worsening drought as the summer starts. 

 

Midwest is going to get more rain soon. 

 

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40 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Is that all time records, or forecasted?  It looks like we have a really nice ridge setting up for the next 15 days! 

No,  just referenced to many areas seeing  80 degree temps.  Couple days next week look super nice! 

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